Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 26, 2003
Range Probability Extended to Positions

This is the next article in a series on a system I'm developing which I'm calling a probabilistic Model of Range. If you haven't been following the discussion, you should read these posts first:

  1. A probabilistic Model of Range
  2. More on Probability and Range
  3. Range Rankings

Here is the updated list of range rankings, through Thursday, Sept. 25, 2003.

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Mariners 2995.7 0.704 3068.0 0.721 0.01699
Phillies 2946.3 0.687 3011.0 0.702 0.01508
Cardinals 3101.3 0.686 3165.0 0.700 0.01408
Dodgers 2723.5 0.695 2763.0 0.706 0.01010
Angels 3007.9 0.693 3046.0 0.702 0.00878
White Sox 2922.6 0.694 2957.0 0.703 0.00817
Padres 2922.5 0.687 2954.0 0.695 0.00742
Braves 3057.7 0.690 3088.0 0.697 0.00683
Astros 2907.9 0.699 2931.0 0.705 0.00555
Reds 3107.7 0.681 3132.0 0.687 0.00533
Expos 2982.0 0.686 3005.0 0.691 0.00528
Brewers 3047.2 0.680 3067.0 0.684 0.00441
Royals 3149.4 0.689 3163.0 0.692 0.00297
Marlins 2941.3 0.691 2949.0 0.692 0.00181
Cubs 2706.3 0.690 2711.0 0.691 0.00120
Orioles 3061.1 0.684 3059.0 0.683 -0.00047
Athletics 3066.7 0.716 3061.0 0.715 -0.00132
Indians 3141.9 0.699 3133.0 0.697 -0.00198
Rockies 3115.0 0.680 3105.0 0.678 -0.00217
Devil Rays 3154.0 0.709 3143.0 0.706 -0.00247
Giants 3024.5 0.712 3012.0 0.709 -0.00295
Twins 3174.2 0.704 3160.0 0.701 -0.00315
Tigers 3246.8 0.691 3216.0 0.684 -0.00655
Mets 3071.5 0.694 3041.0 0.687 -0.00690
Blue Jays 3084.9 0.688 3050.0 0.680 -0.00777
Rangers 3063.7 0.688 3008.0 0.676 -0.01252
Diamondbacks 2892.6 0.703 2836.0 0.689 -0.01375
Pirates 3211.3 0.705 3147.0 0.691 -0.01412
Red Sox 3098.5 0.700 3023.0 0.683 -0.01707
Yankees 3068.7 0.695 2991.0 0.677 -0.01760

The next question I wish to answer is what positions on a particular team are above or below average? I'm not looking at individual players yet, but at the position of the team as a whole. What I'm doing is calculating each position's contribution to DER. (If you add up the Actual DER column, it should total to the team value above.) I'll start by looking at the best team on the list, the Seattle Mariners:

Position, 2003 MarinersExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 162.7 0.038 147.0 0.035 -0.00370
Catcher 49.6 0.012 38.0 0.009 -0.00273
First Base 325.6 0.077 340.0 0.080 0.00338
Second Base 459.1 0.108 464.0 0.109 0.00115
Third Base 350.5 0.082 369.0 0.087 0.00435
Shortstop 473.5 0.111 483.0 0.113 0.00222
Left Field 332.7 0.078 350.0 0.082 0.00406
Center Field 500.2 0.118 534.0 0.125 0.00793
Right Field 341.6 0.080 343.0 0.081 0.00033

Not surprisingly, the Mariners are positive at every fielding position except catcher and pitcher, and those two positions don't contribute much to the team DER. What surprised me is the right fielders. It's mostly Ichiro, and this shows that he basically did what he was expected to do.

Now let's look at the worst team on the list, the NY Yankees:

Position, 2003 YankeesExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Pitcher 165.5 0.037 199.0 0.045 0.00758
Catcher 44.2 0.010 45.0 0.010 0.00019
First Base 324.4 0.073 310.0 0.070 -0.00327
Second Base 516.8 0.117 523.0 0.118 0.00141
Third Base 394.7 0.089 401.0 0.091 0.00142
Shortstop 522.6 0.118 465.0 0.105 -0.01305
Left Field 318.3 0.072 317.0 0.072 -0.00029
Center Field 447.9 0.101 407.0 0.092 -0.00927
Right Field 334.3 0.076 324.0 0.073 -0.00233

The Yankees have great fielders on the mound. Unfortunately, they don't have great fielders behind them. Especially disturbing is the lack of defense at two of the most important positions, SS and CF (I must admit I'm a bit surprised to see 2B doing so well). Yankees shortstops have made almost 60 fewer plays than expected, while their centerfielders are around -40. That just doesn't work.

We can also use this to rank positions. Here's the ranking of team shortstops:

Team SSExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Expos 491.6 0.113 530.0 0.122 0.00883
Cubs 484.5 0.123 518.0 0.132 0.00853
White Sox 480.2 0.114 514.0 0.122 0.00804
Devil Rays 510.4 0.115 544.0 0.122 0.00754
Astros 528.8 0.127 556.0 0.134 0.00654
Angels 470.1 0.108 492.0 0.113 0.00504
Royals 531.2 0.116 553.0 0.121 0.00476
Marlins 488.8 0.115 509.0 0.120 0.00474
Cardinals 509.6 0.113 520.0 0.115 0.00229
Mariners 473.5 0.111 483.0 0.113 0.00222
Giants 489.2 0.115 496.0 0.117 0.00160
Reds 533.4 0.117 540.0 0.118 0.00144
Dodgers 521.7 0.133 526.0 0.134 0.00111
Mets 577.5 0.130 581.0 0.131 0.00079
Blue Jays 522.8 0.117 525.0 0.117 0.00049
Phillies 527.5 0.123 526.0 0.123 -0.00035
Athletics 555.9 0.130 554.0 0.129 -0.00044
Braves 556.2 0.126 554.0 0.125 -0.00051
Rockies 566.4 0.124 561.0 0.122 -0.00117
Pirates 537.6 0.118 531.0 0.117 -0.00145
Indians 575.9 0.128 567.0 0.126 -0.00199
Brewers 530.1 0.118 521.0 0.116 -0.00203
Tigers 587.8 0.125 571.0 0.121 -0.00357
Twins 510.0 0.113 492.0 0.109 -0.00400
Rangers 515.1 0.116 495.0 0.111 -0.00451
Red Sox 541.7 0.122 517.0 0.117 -0.00559
Orioles 515.3 0.115 488.0 0.109 -0.00610
Diamondbacks 499.8 0.121 474.0 0.115 -0.00627
Padres 533.7 0.126 486.0 0.114 -0.01122
Yankees 522.6 0.118 465.0 0.105 -0.01305

None of these have park adjustments. That will be the next step.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:45 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)