I've been looking at these two teams, trying to find an advantage for one over the other. They are very close in runs scored, but the Giants are a little better. They both have good ERAs, but the Giants are a bit better. If you look at defensive efficiency, the Giants are much better, but if you do my probabilistic adjustments, they both do as expected. Both team are good at putting the ball in play (not striking out); the Giants had 980 K, the Marlins 978.

Even though these teams are close overall, the way they achieved these stats is different. When you look at the Marlins by batting order, you see a classic lineup, on-base with little power at the top, good and declining power through the middle of the lineup, the poor hitters at the bottom. When you look at the Marlins starting rotation, you see consistency among the five main starters. Only 1.30 runs separates Beckett from Pavano.

The Giants, on the other hand, have two players that stand out from all others; Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt. Schmidt's ERA is almost a run better than their next best starter, Jerome Williams. No one come close to Bonds offensively. The third and fifth slots in the Giants order have been poor. The third slot underperformed the NL average by over 50 points in OBA and nearly 70 points in slugging percentage. The Giants #5 hitters are also underperforming, but Alfonzo has done much better since moving there. But Bonds is the offense if the middle of the lineup.

What this series comes down to is consistency vs. concentration of talent. Will the two superstars carry the team? Will the Marlins have a different hero every day? Last year the consistent Angels beat the Giants despite a great performance by Barry. These teams are very close. The Giants are a bit better, but if their stars falter, so will San Francisco.