Jason Diller writes in response to my previous post:

Enjoying the site as usual, but I've got to disagree with your reasoning on starting Martinez today and Wakefield tomorrow. The way I see it they have to win one game with Pedro and one without. It doesn't matter if he pitches Game 4 or 5, they still have to win both games. Burkett today or Wakefield tomorrow- either way I'm not too confident( a toss up as I see it), but at least we might as well see a rested Pedro in Game 5 rather than in Game 4 on 3 days rest after 130 pitches.

Of course, the downside to this is that they can't use him in both games (if he started in 4) too, ala Randy Johnson in Games 6 and 7 of the 2001 WS.

Regarding your comment on him pitching Sat. and Mon. Can you imagine? That could have been legendary! My respect level goes up infinitely for Pedro after hearing that.

Where I disagree in this analysis is that I think the Red Sox have a much better shot with Wakefield tomorrow than Burkett today, and that's an important part of my calculation which I didn't make clear. The two things that lead me to that conclusion are:

1. Wakefield, for the season, had an ERA that was a point better than Burkett.


2. In the stretch run, Wakefield posted a 2.01 ERA over his last five starts.

Wakefield pitched fine in game two, but both his offense and defense let him down. If he pitches that well again, the Red Sox can win if they hit. With Burkett, you run the risk of getting blown out in the first inning.

Yes, I wouldn't be thrilled with bringing Pedro back on short rest after throwning 130 pitches. But I'd rather do that than lose.

One other thing; if Pedro goes today, and the Red Sox win the series, he can start game two of the ALCS on Thursday. If he goes tomorrow, he can't start until game three on Saturday. Doesn't seem like much of a difference, but if he starts game 2, the Sox could bring him back in game five. If he starts game 3, you won't be able to use him before game six, and by then the Sox could be out of it.

I remain convinced that starting John "Denny Galehouse" Burkett is the wrong move today.

Update: Ben Jacobs of Universal Baseball Blog agress with Jason.

I read your comments on the Red Sox saving Pedro Martinez for game five and I have to say that I disagree with you. I can understand the A's going with their two starters on short rest, because their starters are Tim Hudson and Barry Zito, both excellent pitchers. No matter how the Red Sox do it, they will have Pedro and a pitcher with an ERA above 4.00.

So, no matter what the Red Sox do, they will have a good chance to not give up many runs in one game and a good chance to give up a bunch of runs in the other game. Which place would you rather take the chance of giving up a bunch of runs? For me, it's the park where the Red Sox have scored about 6.5 runs per game. Plus, there's no guarantee that Pedro can be effective on three days of rest. Sure, he says he can do it, but he never has before. Pedro's never made a start on short rest, so there's no knowing how it would affect him.

The point is that the Red Sox have to win two games. They give themselves the best shot at doing that with John Burkett and Pedro both going on full rest, rather than with Pedro and Wakefield both going on short rest.

Looks like the consensus is against me.