November 02, 2003
Probabilistic Model of Range, continued
I'm starting work again on my probabilistic model of range. (You can read about my previous work here.) These will come in a series of posts that I hope I will be able to gather together into a single paper. The following table is for the complete 2003 season, and is based on the same statistics as my previous output.
| Team | Expected Outs | Expected DER | Actual Outs | Actual DER | DER Difference |
|---|
| Mariners | 3051.8 | 0.705 | 3120.0 | 0.720 | 0.01574 |
| Phillies | 3013.8 | 0.688 | 3073.0 | 0.701 | 0.01350 |
| Cardinals | 3171.7 | 0.686 | 3229.0 | 0.698 | 0.01240 |
| White Sox | 2978.2 | 0.696 | 3018.0 | 0.705 | 0.00929 |
| Angels | 3069.1 | 0.693 | 3108.0 | 0.702 | 0.00877 |
| Padres | 2974.9 | 0.687 | 3009.0 | 0.695 | 0.00788 |
| Dodgers | 2797.7 | 0.696 | 2828.0 | 0.703 | 0.00753 |
| Braves | 3117.6 | 0.690 | 3150.0 | 0.697 | 0.00717 |
| Expos | 3035.7 | 0.686 | 3066.0 | 0.693 | 0.00684 |
| Reds | 3166.7 | 0.682 | 3195.0 | 0.688 | 0.00610 |
| Astros | 2960.7 | 0.699 | 2981.0 | 0.704 | 0.00480 |
| Brewers | 3104.6 | 0.679 | 3123.0 | 0.683 | 0.00404 |
| Royals | 3221.4 | 0.688 | 3231.0 | 0.690 | 0.00205 |
| Cubs | 2753.6 | 0.689 | 2759.0 | 0.691 | 0.00136 |
| Marlins | 2993.6 | 0.691 | 2999.0 | 0.692 | 0.00124 |
| Rockies | 3162.6 | 0.678 | 3163.0 | 0.678 | 0.00008 |
| Orioles | 3135.9 | 0.684 | 3132.0 | 0.683 | -0.00086 |
| Indians | 3195.5 | 0.699 | 3190.0 | 0.698 | -0.00121 |
| Devil Rays | 3213.7 | 0.709 | 3204.0 | 0.707 | -0.00213 |
| Athletics | 3125.2 | 0.715 | 3112.0 | 0.712 | -0.00302 |
| Giants | 3105.6 | 0.712 | 3091.0 | 0.709 | -0.00335 |
| Twins | 3243.3 | 0.703 | 3226.0 | 0.699 | -0.00375 |
| Tigers | 3310.6 | 0.689 | 3283.0 | 0.683 | -0.00575 |
| Mets | 3126.2 | 0.694 | 3099.0 | 0.688 | -0.00604 |
| Blue Jays | 3134.7 | 0.687 | 3106.0 | 0.681 | -0.00629 |
| Rangers | 3117.8 | 0.688 | 3060.0 | 0.675 | -0.01275 |
| Pirates | 3259.0 | 0.705 | 3196.0 | 0.691 | -0.01363 |
| Diamondbacks | 2949.8 | 0.704 | 2888.0 | 0.689 | -0.01476 |
| Yankees | 3146.3 | 0.695 | 3074.0 | 0.679 | -0.01599 |
| Red Sox | 3151.5 | 0.700 | 3076.0 | 0.684 | -0.01678 |
I've received a lot of positive feedback about this approach, and some constructive criticism. A number of researchers believe that these figures need to be adjusted for the park and the the handedness of the pitcher. My next step is to make those adjustments and see what happens. Stay tuned.
Posted by David Pinto at
10:07 AM
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Defense
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