Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Range, Center Fielders

December 06, 2003

Probabilistic Range, Center Fielders

Here are the center fielders, minimum 200 balls in play while they are in center field.

Center Fielders
CF	Expected Outs	Expected DER	Actual Outs	Actual DER	DER Difference
Jody Gerut	23.9	0.070	29.0	0.085	0.01473
Tim Raines Jr.	30.1	0.111	34.0	0.125	0.01430
Gabe Kapler	19.6	0.082	23.0	0.096	0.01426
Jeff DaVanon	72.3	0.110	80.0	0.122	0.01167
Ryan Freel	45.1	0.085	50.0	0.095	0.00926
Laynce Nix	50.7	0.109	55.0	0.118	0.00920
Willie Harris	76.4	0.098	83.0	0.107	0.00848
Carl Crawford	31.4	0.096	34.0	0.104	0.00788
Aaron Rowand	93.2	0.083	101.0	0.090	0.00692
Jeff Duncan	128.0	0.110	136.0	0.117	0.00688
Andruw Jones	362.1	0.088	390.0	0.095	0.00678
Wilkin Ruan	20.3	0.073	22.0	0.079	0.00608
Mark Kotsay	307.0	0.097	324.0	0.102	0.00535
Carlos Beltran	351.5	0.096	371.0	0.101	0.00531
Brian Jordan	29.7	0.123	31.0	0.129	0.00530
Milton Bradley	233.6	0.088	245.0	0.092	0.00427
Mike Cameron	467.5	0.120	484.0	0.125	0.00424
Raul Gonzalez	36.7	0.107	38.0	0.111	0.00386
Tike Redman	122.3	0.088	127.0	0.091	0.00341
Darin Erstad	184.3	0.107	190.0	0.110	0.00329
Torii Hunter	412.0	0.101	425.0	0.104	0.00319
Quinton McCracken	18.2	0.066	19.0	0.069	0.00306
Randy Winn	58.7	0.133	60.0	0.136	0.00291
Brian Giles	38.8	0.094	40.0	0.097	0.00290
Alex Sanchez	369.6	0.099	378.0	0.101	0.00225
Dave Roberts	196.8	0.083	202.0	0.085	0.00218
Gary Matthews Jr.	161.3	0.086	165.0	0.088	0.00195
Scott Podsednik	309.6	0.091	316.0	0.093	0.00188
Jim Edmonds	329.1	0.102	334.0	0.104	0.00154
Chone Figgins	106.3	0.096	108.0	0.098	0.00153
Johnny Damon	357.3	0.092	363.0	0.093	0.00147
Ryan Christenson	132.1	0.097	134.0	0.099	0.00140
Hideki Matsui	108.3	0.087	110.0	0.088	0.00136
Joe Borchard	31.8	0.081	32.0	0.082	0.00055
Chris Singleton	175.0	0.078	176.0	0.079	0.00044
Tsuyoshi Shinjo	89.7	0.110	90.0	0.110	0.00042
Gene Kingsale	51.8	0.084	52.0	0.084	0.00037
Preston Wilson	330.0	0.076	330.0	0.076	-0.00001
Luis Matos	299.9	0.102	299.0	0.102	-0.00031
Endy Chavez	279.1	0.089	278.0	0.088	-0.00036
Juan Pierre	403.6	0.094	402.0	0.094	-0.00037
Kenny Lofton	316.5	0.090	315.0	0.090	-0.00042
Eric Byrnes	164.1	0.081	163.0	0.080	-0.00052
Doug Glanville	145.1	0.093	144.0	0.093	-0.00069
Vernon Wells	386.4	0.086	383.0	0.085	-0.00076
Eric Owens	100.7	0.109	100.0	0.108	-0.00078
Craig Biggio	330.8	0.086	327.0	0.085	-0.00098
Corey Patterson	154.4	0.079	152.0	0.078	-0.00121
Austin Kearns	104.3	0.099	103.0	0.098	-0.00123
Roger Cedeno	31.6	0.078	31.0	0.076	-0.00144
Carl Everett	163.8	0.094	161.0	0.092	-0.00161
Wily Mo Pena	58.1	0.090	57.0	0.089	-0.00171
Marlon Byrd	302.0	0.089	295.0	0.087	-0.00206
Shane Victorino	22.7	0.076	22.0	0.074	-0.00232
Rocco Baldelli	446.8	0.107	437.0	0.105	-0.00234
Marquis Grissom	353.3	0.095	343.0	0.092	-0.00277
Ricky Ledee	66.7	0.073	64.0	0.070	-0.00294
Timo Perez	101.2	0.096	98.0	0.093	-0.00303
Ruben Mateo	27.1	0.084	26.0	0.080	-0.00341
Brian L. Hunter	11.7	0.054	11.0	0.050	-0.00343
Reggie Taylor	86.3	0.096	83.0	0.092	-0.00369
Andres Torres	83.4	0.094	80.0	0.090	-0.00381
Steve Finley	270.9	0.081	258.0	0.077	-0.00388
Jeromy Burnitz	63.1	0.081	60.0	0.077	-0.00398
Adam Hyzdu	33.6	0.095	32.0	0.090	-0.00442
Ruben Rivera	29.0	0.129	28.0	0.124	-0.00460
Tom Goodwin	35.7	0.078	33.0	0.072	-0.00603
Ben Petrick	29.3	0.080	27.0	0.074	-0.00624
Danny Bautista	33.6	0.083	31.0	0.076	-0.00646
Ken Griffey Jr.	96.7	0.083	89.0	0.077	-0.00660
Bernie Williams	311.5	0.101	291.0	0.094	-0.00661
Jeffrey Hammonds	28.2	0.089	26.0	0.082	-0.00690
Brad Wilkerson	78.2	0.079	71.0	0.072	-0.00730
Michael Tucker	65.6	0.088	60.0	0.080	-0.00745
J.D. Drew	56.6	0.095	52.0	0.087	-0.00765
Coco Crisp	136.0	0.096	125.0	0.089	-0.00776
Damian Jackson	24.4	0.080	22.0	0.072	-0.00778
Ramon Nivar	76.3	0.114	70.0	0.105	-0.00938
Jolbert Cabrera	54.1	0.077	47.0	0.067	-0.01013
Kerry Robinson	21.4	0.092	19.0	0.082	-0.01027
Melvin Mora	25.7	0.099	23.0	0.088	-0.01042
Armando Rios	44.1	0.097	39.0	0.086	-0.01134
Karim Garcia	24.5	0.111	22.0	0.100	-0.01144
Darren Bragg	27.7	0.077	23.0	0.064	-0.01307
Donnie Sadler	37.6	0.107	33.0	0.094	-0.01319
Jose Macias	31.4	0.122	27.0	0.105	-0.01686
Dustan Mohr	25.6	0.123	22.0	0.106	-0.01711
Lew Ford	23.3	0.091	18.0	0.071	-0.02090
Orlando Palmeiro	30.9	0.101	24.0	0.078	-0.02246

This list looks right to me. Andruw Jones first among regulars, Bernie Williams last. It also confirms that the Yankees should move Matsui to centerfield, and not try to pick up Kenny Lofton.

Posted by David Pinto at 10:40 AM | Defense | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Mike Cameron comes down several pegs. That's interesting. Vernon Wells' ranking also surprises me.

But at least this gives us a more realistic handle on the "Craig Biggio question." I'd say he did pretty well, given the position switch, but not nearly as well as Win Shares ranked him.

Posted by: studes at December 6, 2003 10:58 AM

Hi David, keep up the good work with your defensive ratings. Curious if you had any thoughts on why Matsui is worse than expected in left field (212 expected, 210 actual) but better than average in center (108 expected, 110 actual)? Maybe with those numbers, the differences aren't significant?

Joel

Posted by: Joel Moore at December 6, 2003 11:02 AM