January 06, 2004
Morris vs. Blyleven
Someone asked earlier today why I voted for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyleven on my ESPN Hall of Fame ballot. I must admit it was a gut decision; I didn't go checking all the stats at the time. I really liked Jack Morris during the 80's, and his game 7 victory in the 1991 World Series really sticks in my mind. The thing I remember about Bert was him giving up lots of HR, although that was really at the end of his career with Minnesota.
Having taken a closer look, Bert's years of peak performance were better than Jack's, and he had more of them. Morris' best years go from 1979-1988, and he accumulated 167 win shares during that time, 16.7 per year. He only had one great year after that, 1991. Blyleven's peak goes from 1970 to 1985, 16 years. In that time, he accumulated 269 win shares, or 16.8 per season. So if I'm going to vote for Morris, I should also vote for Blyleven. However, looking at both more closely, I doubt I would vote for either in the future. I try to have very high standards where the Hall is concerned, and neither really light my fire.
Note: Billy Sample on MLB.com's Hall of Fame broadcast today mentioned that Blyleven had a terrible record in 1-run games. Of his 685 starts, 235 were decided by one run. His teams were 113-122 in those starts. Bert was 56-75 in games in which he got the decision. If you turn those numbers around, Blyleven has 300 wins and he's in the Hall of Fame. So you can blame his non-election on some back luck.
I'd still like to see how many of those 1-run losses (esp. in Minnesota and Texas) were games where Bert got left in too long. What's striking is his lack of no-decisions; he appears to have often been left out there until the game was decided.
Is there any reason to believe that his record in 1-run games should be any different from his teams', which I would guess is around .500. Until I see the record of other comparable pitchers in 1-run games, I have to argue that this stat is meaningless.
Sort of reminds of the frequently repeated stat from the mid- to late-80s that Nolan Ryan had won something like 90% of the games he pitched when leading after 8 or 9 innings. Sounded great until someone (I'm guessing Bill James) figure out that this was worse than the league average.
I hope more voters for the Hall of Fame are more responsible with their voting and don't just rely on their gut decision, or because they "liked the player". Bert Blyleven deserves better. Blyleven was a great player that played in his prime in relative obscurity in the '70s and '80s for mediocre teams in Texas, Anaheim, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh (only 5 times did these teams ever reach a 90-win season during Blyleven's career, only 3 times during his 'peak' (1970-1985)). Blyleven never had the fortune of playing for New York in his career, otherwise he would have been a lock as a first-ballot member. I'm not going to re-hash all of Blyleven's statistics, there are several articles that do a decent job at arguing his credentials. I just ask that you please read them critically, including several that discuss Blyleven's "bad luck", i.e. his teams' Average Runs-Scored during his starts (his teams were shutout 42 times in games he started).
Other than his 287 wins, 3700 strikeouts, and his "peak year" ERA of 3.01, the stat that says the most about Blyleven's dominance : 60 shutouts, good enough for 9th ALL-TIME. 60 Shutouts is the equivalent of a pitcher pitching 5 shutouts a season for 12 consecutive years. Tom Seaver (61), Nolan Ryan (61) and Warren Spahn (63) are the ONLY pitchers since 1950 to finish with more shutouts than Blyleven. Surely, that's enough to "light your fire"?
http://www.minnesotascore.com/articles/blyleven.html
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2002/0728/1411078.html
http://baseballbeat.blogspot.com/2003_12_21_baseballbeat_archive.html#107237049107073512
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/columnist/saraceno/2003-01-08-saraceno_x.htm
http://www.triplesteal.com/Oct2000/blyleven_warren.html
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/story/6966023
http://www.knoxnews.com/kns/baseball/article/0,1406,KNS_318_2558497,00.html
