Baseball Musings: What Did the Yankees Gain?

February 16, 2004

What Did the Yankees Gain?

A reader writes:

David, I'm thinking that the Yankees adding A-Rod is a bit like adding pig to pork. I took a look at Runs Created from 2003, A-Rod had 135 Soriano had 112. So unless I'm missing something the Yankees pick up 23 (offensive) runs with the trade. If I add the 23 runs they pick up to their total from 2003, (877) that gives them an even 900; which would put them 6 runs better than Toronto and 61 runs worse than Boston.

So is picking up 23 runs going to make a huge difference in the Yankees fortunes this year? Is their pitching staff 23 runs worse than last year? I doubt it since the bullpen looks much better and the starting five could at this point be considered a wash.

Other than defense which I really won't get into because I don't think the Yankees defense got much worse this winter, is there anything else of significance that I'm missing that A-Rod brings to the table, or does it boil down to 23 runs? Merchandising, PR, Ticket sales and ratings not included.

Now, 23 runs isn't nothing. That's 2 wins. And that's two wins over a pretty good player. The win shares difference last year was five, which is close to two wins, also. Here's the reply I sent to the letter.

I think A-Rod is just a better long term player than Soriano. To take a phrase from Moneyball, it's not the result, it's the process. A-Rod approaches hitting correctly. Soriano doesn't. And it's getting a little too late for Soriano to learn.

It became pretty clear to me at the end of last season that you can get Alfonso out by throwing a ball low and outside. My guess is that this year, that pitch is going to kill him. A-Rod doesn't (to my knowledge) have such a weakness. So as time goes on, that RC difference is just going to increase.

And I'll stand by this. I think we've seen the two best years we'll see from Soriano offensively. He's had OBP the last two years of .332 and .338. That just doesn't cut it, especially if he's used as a leadoff man. Maybe Showalter can get him to lay off the outside pitch. But at some point, he'll hit a HR off one and fall in love with it all over again. Pitchers realize this. There's no reason to throw the man a strike to get him out.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:01 PM | Trades | TrackBack (5)

Comments

I remember last fall, watching the ALCS, I felt like Soriano was an automatic strikeout every time he came up. I came to look forward to his spot in the order because it meant rally-killer.

Posted by: John Y. at February 16, 2004 10:06 PM

I've really enjoyed your site, and you are EXACTLY right in your A-Rod vs. Soriano analysis. Stats are extremely useful, but just figuring out the statistical difference between the two players over the course of a season doesn't tell the whole story. There's also the postseason to be considered, particularly if you're the Yankees. The difference between Soriano and A-Rod may not be that great over the regular season, or at least not nearly as great as the salary difference, but I believe A-Rod will be immensely more valuable in the postseason. As you point out, Soriano can really be exploited by good pitching--the kind you get a steady diet of in the postseason. A-Rod is a far, far more sound hitter. Those extra couple of regular season wins would be nice, but the Yankees got A-Rod to win those two more World Series games they didn't win last year. He's far more capable than Soriano of helping them do it. Finally, as you point out, it's also true that we're not just talking about one year here. A-Rod is as sure a thing as there is over the next decade or so. Soriano may be great too, but it's a much more questionable proposition. I don't care what the numbers project for this season--there is a BIG difference between these two players.

Posted by: Urban Shocker at February 16, 2004 10:15 PM

I remember last fall, watching the Cubs in the postseason, I felt like Alex Gonzalez was an automatic good at bat every time he came up. I came to look forward to his spot in the order because it meant rally-starter.

Posted by: Johnny at February 16, 2004 10:15 PM

Dead on -- Soriano has probably peaked. Best case for him is that he stays the same, an erratic, exciting player that is infuriating to watch by informed fans.

The interesting thing to see will be where he ends up in the lineup. The insanity of him leading off in last year's Yankee line-up wouldn't have been repeated by Torre this year because of the Lofton acquisition (probably not the right choice either). High SLG, high K, low OBP with speed should be hitting low in the lineup, where they get pitches to hit and runners to drive in. That part of the lineup (well, exclude the 2004 Yankees) is where manufacturing runs with SBs and sac bunts MIGHT make sense.

Posted by: David at February 16, 2004 11:12 PM

One thing that hasn't been widely reported, but that Joe Sheehan over at BP wisely picked up is how much Soriano is slated to make the next three seasons (he isn't a free agent until after 2006). Considering the kind of stats he puts up: lots of HR, RBI, SB's, he's likely to make a fair amount in arbitration. So the savings the Rangers accrue is going to shrink each year as Soriano makes more. Let's call this deal for what it is: Hicks is subsidizing the Chan Ho Park contract.

Posted by: Daniel at February 16, 2004 11:18 PM

John Shiffert wrote a nice column comparing Soriano to Juan Samuel, and I think the comparison is particularly apt. Samuel fell off the cliff after near-stardom, and the same might happen to Soriano.

Having said that, players can improve. Let's see how Soriano responds to the trade.

Posted by: studes at February 17, 2004 12:05 AM

David:

I'm interested in how you think the A-Rod at 3B and Jeter at SS combo is going to work out defensively? Obviously, they'll easily outhit any other left side of the infield in baseball, but is this set-up much worse than having A-Rod at SS and Jetes at 3B (or even 2B)?

Using Tangotiger's True Talent Fielding Level, extrapolated from MGL's UZR, A-Rod 3B/Jetes SS is worth -13 runs worse than average, while A-Rod SS/Jetes 3B is only -7 worse than average. (That's assuming both players can make the transition easily, and frankly I'm only confident that A-Rod can.) That barely seems one game difference in the standings.

Have you looked into this question using Probabilitistic Model Range?

Posted by: Jurgen at February 17, 2004 01:44 AM

Hey, I just noticed the link to our site. Thanks, David. Anyways, I'd like to hear your thoughts on the matter.

Posted by: Jurgen at February 17, 2004 02:46 AM

Here's a sad thought: suppose Soriano has NOT peaked? Suppose over the next 3 years he matures and learns to tone down the Ks? Then... suppose he ends up right back with the Yankees because they offer him $14M a year, outbidding everyone else?

Posted by: Dave at February 17, 2004 07:41 AM