Baseball Musings: What if Everyone Played Moneyball?

February 20, 2004

What if Everyone Played Moneyball?

Aaron Schatz pens his first piece for The New Republic Online on the spread of sabermetrics in baseball front offices. He the adpotion of these methods by teams with great resources (Dodgers and Red Sox) will make it harder for teams like Toronto to compete.

No, the real losers in the Rodriguez trade are the Toronto Blue Jays, who also play in the AL East and are run by Ricciardi, another Beane disciple. The division has reached the point where Toronto has almost no chance of making the playoffs--despite managing its resources in an ultra-efficient manner--because it is competing with two other teams that also have relatively intelligent management, plus more than double (the Red Sox) or triple (the Yankees) its resources. Yes, the regular season can always produce some surprises, and every year some team outperforms expectations. But the AL East's five teams (New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay) have finished in the exact same order for six years in a row. And one can understand why: No matter how smart Ricciardi is, how many chances for arbitrage can he find that Epstein or Yankees general manager Brian Cashman won't find as well?

Unfortunately, thanks to the mainstreaming of sabermetric techniques that DePodesta's hiring signifies, the future of Major League Baseball probably looks a lot more like today's AL East than the league Michael Lewis brings to life in Moneyball. In the end, the revolution pioneered by Billy Beane and the Oakland A's may make the market for baseball players a lot more efficient. But it won't make the game any more competitive.

Aaron had written me with some questions before submitting the piece, but one answer that didn't make the final edit was on the subject of Toronto being able to compete with New York and Boston. Here's my take on it:

I have to say yes. The way the system is set up, players don't cost you an arm and a leg until they become free agents, at which point they've played six years. Unless you are like A-Rod or Robbie Alomar who came up at 19, most players are not free agents until they are past their prime. So in general, the team that drafts a player is going to get that player's best years.

Now it's a lot easier, given unlimited resources, to hire good players rather than draft them. So teams with lots of money will tend to spend their resources on free agents rather than the farm system. That's pretty much what has happened with the Yankees. Teams without a lot of cash will do the opposite; they develop players, bring them to the majors, get their six years out of them, and let them go. If you do this well enough, you will always be able to have a decent team on the field. In addition, you'll have resources you can trade for veterans when you need to fill a hole to put you over the top. You just have to stay close, and let luck work it's magic.

Remember, there are many different ways to win in baseball, none much better than the others. Some just require more work.

Update: JC at Old Fishinghat also disagrees with Aaron.

Posted by David Pinto at 02:38 PM | Management | TrackBack (4)

Comments

Another point is that the teams like New York and Boston are always going to have fan/media pressure on them to go for those big name free agents.

The fan base isn't going to sit quitely while the team lets the inexpensive young prospects develop. So it'll be a balancing act for someone like Theo Epstein to do a bit of both.

Posted by: Edw at February 20, 2004 04:03 PM

I think the general point, which is being danced around, is that the problem with most baseball teams is that they don't have the ability to accurately evaluate their players. This is the most true for the middle players. Most the players making $13 mil+ deserve it, and would whether you are playing by the "old rules" or the "Beane rules." Billy Beane basically admitted that, given the money, he would have been happy to keep Giambi, Tejada, etc. The market works fairly well for them, especially when you consider their drawing power (which adds to their value beyond their contribution to team wins).

Where teams get screwed is by paying "Proven Veterans" far more than they deserve, and doing this time after time, when they could get the same production from cheaper, younger players.

Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox will always pay for the superstars, and they should. It's the Chan-Ho Park's, not the A-Rod's of the world that are killing teams.

Posted by: Ali Nagib at February 20, 2004 05:42 PM

Good Drafting is a black art. Then we get to the Blackest of Arts, Player Development. As an Oakland Fan it's come to me that it's the A's ability to develop their young pitchers that is right now their greatest competetive advantage. Hudson, Mulder, Zito. Everyone knows them. Then the two who started a few games last year: Harden, Duchscherer. And then the next Phenom in AAA this year: Joe Blanton. And a few down in AA. All good to fantastic starters. All have upside. The A's have put out one or two MLB caliber starters every year for 4 years running.

Copying this would be difficult even for the smartest of teams.

Posted by: Ray at February 20, 2004 10:52 PM

Another thing wrong with the New Republic article is that Grady Fuson is not a sabrematician, but was fired by Billy Beane for not being one. This guy needs to do some research.

Posted by: Dodgerkid at February 21, 2004 12:34 AM

I have a curious question though: since when did the city of Toronto become a small market?

Consider.... the only AL team in Canada.... I believe one of the top 6 cities in population in North America (include the London/Hamilton area and it easily is).... the cultural center of Canada....

Granted, the fan base is smaller than three of the AL East teams, but whose fault is that? After all, they are less than 15 years removed from being the "dynasty of the moment". Cash flow from cable? They could take it to a national level!

There definitely is something wrong with this sport - a caste system is most definitely in place. But lumping Toronto in with the have-nots.... well, that doesn't survive scrutiny.

Posted by: Dave at February 21, 2004 09:05 AM

I can't say anything towards them actually being a "small market" team, but how much does the canadian dollar hurt them?

Posted by: tom at February 21, 2004 11:23 AM

Fuson wasn't fired. He was hired away by the Rangers. No, Beane didn't really put up a fight to keep him, but that doesn't mean he was fired.

Posted by: Jason at February 21, 2004 05:30 PM