Baseball Musings: Graphing Pitchers

February 27, 2004

Graphing Pitchers

Eric McErlain points me to this post by my favorite Canandian blogger, Colby Cosh. In the post, Colby creates a 2-D projection of the K/Inn, BB/Inn and HR/Inn of each ERA qualifying pitcher from 2003. Basically, if you are in the upper left corner of the graph, you're very good.

Some observations:

Kevin Brown is located right between Clemens and Pettitte. He's a good replacement for either.

Vazquez is better than both Clemens and Pettite, so he should be an upgrade for NY.

The Yankees are the only team with three pitchers in the upper left quadrant.

Tim Wakefield should be the Red Sox third starter, not Lowe.

The only difference between Mulder, Zito and Hudson is the number of people they walk.

Kerry Wood is an extreme outlier. He has the highest K per 9, but also walks a ton of batters. By this chart, Prior is clearly the #1 starter on the Cubs.

If you walk a lot of batters without striking many out, you don't get enough innings to qualify for the ERA title.

If Clemens and Pettite can get Wade Miller to walk one less per 9, the Astros will have three pitchers in the upper left quadrant on their team this year.

Nice work from the Great White North!

Posted by David Pinto at 02:25 PM | Statistics | TrackBack (2)

Comments

Colby says: "I wonder if I am the first to make such a thing." Well, I hope he comes across my site at some point. I sent him an e-mail telling him about it.

The trouble with representing individual players is that you have to make the chart as big as Colby made his, and you have to really work on the labeling so the labels don't run into each other.

Still, it's worth it.

Posted by: studes at February 27, 2004 03:14 PM

It's nice to see some statistical confirmation of what I have suspected at a gut level for a couple years, that Wakefield should be ahead of Lowe in the Sox's rotation. Knuckleballers just cause so much agita that it is hard to see them for what they are I guess.

Posted by: Mike Molloy at February 27, 2004 03:28 PM

Not to be picky, but isn't Wakefield in the upper left quadrant, giving 3 to the Red Sox?

Posted by: Dal Marken at February 27, 2004 03:35 PM

Wood looks like a Nolan Ryan clone. Ryan's career SO/IP was 1.06; his BB/IP was 0.52. Never really noticed that; this graph really shows it in a striking way. Ryan's 1973 numbers (1.17 SO/IP; .5 BB/IP) are an especially good match for Woods's last year.

Posted by: Mike Molloy at February 27, 2004 03:56 PM

No, Wakefield is to the right of center on walks per inning.

Posted by: David Pinto at February 27, 2004 04:19 PM

I'd still make Lowe my #3 at least initially. I know you stat guys will hate this as I'm basing it on gut, but Lowe seems to have on/off years. Remeber he was a great closer one year, was nearly burned at the stake the following year. Then was made a starter, had the no hitter and was awesome as the default ace all year long. Then last year he was only so-so especially on the road.

I have high hopes for Lowe this year.

Posted by: Edw at February 27, 2004 04:45 PM

Regarding the display problems that studes mentions, I'm thinking if one were to make the chart in Flash you could do a lot of cool stuff with mouseovers and tool tipe that might help some of the labeling issues. Also it'd be possible to do things like "show me just the Red Sox pitchers and just the Yankees pitchers."

Food for thought.

Posted by: Edw at February 27, 2004 04:50 PM

I would make Kim my #3 starter, Lowe my #1, Martinez my 4, Wakefield my 5, and Schilling my 2. Then, I would have Pedro pitch opening day, followed by Schilling, Lowe, Wakefield, and Kim.

Then, I would repeat that order until the season ended, unless one of the five got hurt, in which case I would promote or trade for a starter who I would anoint my closer who starts games.

Posted by: John Velousis at February 27, 2004 07:22 PM

Yes, Kerry Wood is an outlier on the top of the chart but don't overlook David Wells who set the limit of the left side of the graph.

Posted by: Bill Arthurs at February 27, 2004 08:50 PM

Lowe is an extreme GB pitcher, so his reduced K/9 may make him seem worse than he is.

Posted by: Dan at February 28, 2004 08:05 PM