This is why everyone's been saying they're so dangerous. Every team in the majors has a list that looks something close to that. But the yankees have so much talent that they are able to overcome that.

"It's doubtful that even the return of Nomar and Nixon will be enough to overcome this juggernaught."

No. But numbers that one might reasonably expect from Pedro, Arroyo, a healthy Kim and a healthy Williamson in addition to Nixon and Nomar might.

As I look at the standings this morning, the Red Sox are just 2 games behnd the Yankees. Now given the team Theo and Co. have assembled, this shouldn't be a surprise. But consider this:

- Nomar hasn't played an inning this season
- Kevin Millar hasn't hit this season
- David Ortiz hasn't gotten on base this season
- Derek Lowe has been byond awful
- Kim and Arroyo have been awful
- Nixon's on the DL
- They have gotten nothing from RF

Despite all that, they are tied with the Yankees for the league lead in runs scored with 289. I find that a bit scary. Two of their four best hitters having not played even a single inning and they are at the top of the league in runs scored. And it looks like Nomar and Nixon are getting healthier. Nomar comes off the DL and will play Tuesday. Damon is playing more like he used to in Kansas City. Manny is Manny. Varitek just keeps getting on base. If they can score like this with their offense not hitting on all cyliners, what are they going to be like when everything is in place? What if Lowe regains his form? It's doubtful that even the return of Giambi will be enough to overcome this juggernaught.

....I'm just sayin'

Is there any reason to believe that Lowe, Kim and Arroyo are any good? Is there any reason to believe that last Millar is going to hit much better than this? Ortiz has a .348 OBA; his career OBA is .352. How is he not getting on base? And Bellhorn, Garciaparra's replacement, is getting on base much better than Nomar will.

So when I look at the Red Sox, I see a team performing to their expectations (with the exception of Pedro), sans a right fielder. When I look at the Yankees, I see a team that hasn't approached their potential yet. That's a big difference.

"Is there any reason to believe that Lowe, Kim and Arroyo are any good?"

Lowe - Um, let's see. Sure he does not strike many guys out but he was a dominant reliever and had a 2.58 ERA in 2002. He was at least average in 2004. So since you seem to suggest there is no room for improvement in Lowe this season, I will assume you believe he is a 6.84 ERA pitcher?

Arroyo - 2003 International League Pitcher of the Year. If Minor League statistics are an equally reliable predictor of Major League performance as past MLB numbers, as someone once suggested, I would say yeah there is definitely reason to believe he is good.

Kim - Are you serious? How about a 1.17 career WHIP and a career 3.33 E.R.A.?

"Is there any reason to believe that last Millar is going to hit much better than this?"

Maybe not but I would submit more reason than there is to believe Bernie will hit. I will bet on the 32 year old with the .850 career OPS bouncing back ahead of the 35 year old with the .877 career OPS.

"Ortiz has a .348 OBA; his career OBA is .352. How is he not getting on base?"

Aside from the fact that Ortiz has a .342 OBA, I suppose that's fair. But I think he is more the hitter he was last season than his established career would show. He is just 28.

"And Bellhorn, Garciaparra's replacement, is getting on base much better than Nomar will."

Pokey Reese, and his .290 OBP, is not getting on base better than Nomar will. Sorry.

I think the Red Sox should try and trade Casey Fossum for Bartolo Colon to solidify their rotation...

...oh, wait.

Yeah, Colon and his 5.43 ERA would be a huge help.

I think I am glad they traded him for Schilling instead.

If Giambi and Sheffield went back on the juice, I think the yankees would be fine. But they won't, so they aren't.

Trot and Nomar are coming back soon. Bring it on.

I'll take Joe Torre over whomever-is-managing-the-Red-Sox-this-year any day of the week.

And Bernie's track record is better than Millar's. Millar has had a relatively short career, and if you look at this numbers, it's very possible that he peaked in 2001. While Bernie will never be the player that he once was, I'd still pick him over Millar for this season. Plus he's the best guitarist in the Majors.

""Is there any reason to believe that Lowe [is] any good?"

500 outstanding innings from 1999-2002. Against that we have his 250 bad to wretched innings in 2003 and 2004.

I find it hard to believe that it took hitters five years to just "lay off" the sinker, but K's down, walks up, G/F down... certainly suggests that the hitters aren't seeing the same pitch the way they used to.

You guys all forgot something else:

-- The Yankess are 2 games ahead of the Sox

--The Sox BEAT THE YANKEES 5 TIMES OUT OF 6.

--But the Yankees are 2 games ahead of the Sox.

The point of my original mock-Pinto post was to illustrate that both teams have been unfortunate and simultaneously quite good. The Red Sox have legitimate concerns and so do the Yankees.

But I thought to suggest that somehow the Yankees were in a different league than the Red Sox because they have overcome underperformance and injury ignored all that the Sox have been through as well.

When healthy, both teams are a good 15% better than baseball's 3rd best team.

Hard to use history as back-up, Sully. Remember the Red Sox are the team that put the swoon in June Swoon.

no, i think sully's right. both teams have had their problems, and let's remember than nixon and nomar are both potential .900+ OPS guys. my position on this race is the same as it was at the beginning of the year: the sox just have a more solid team. and judging by last year the sox will be better at/have an easier time filling holes via trade.

This wasn't meant to be fan-boy nonsense.

I just really believed that if Dave wanted to write the piece as I wrote it, with Red Sox names substituted, it would have made just as much sense.

I like how all Sox fans must repeatedly mention Lowe's stats as a closer and as a first year starter. His 2003 was decidedly average, and when looking at the circumstances, as well as this year's numbers so far- this is the kind of pitcher Lowe is.

They want to badly to believe in his former iteration, when that was in fact the outlier, not the numbers he's putting up now.

Starting in '98, Lowe's ERA:

4.02
2.63
2.56
3.54
2.58
4.47
6.84

So, which one is the outlier?

Lowe's ERA as a starter:

2.58
4.47
6.84

So, which one is the outlier?

The point is, if Pinto can talk about how much room for improvement Mussina has, it is equally reasonable to claim that Lowe has the same amount of room for improvement.

Of course, Mussina will probably go from average to quite good while Lowe will probably go from catastrophic to quite average.

The only point is that they have similar amounts of room for improvement.

I love that people have conversations in my comments! Mike Mussina has a long track record as a great starter. Lowe's track record as a starter is mixed, as was his track record as a closer. I would expect that there's a lot more room for improvement in Mussina than in Lowe.

Wait a minute:

Lowe '04: 6.84 ERA
Lowe '01-'03: 3.50 ERA (3.40 as a starter)

Mussina '04: 4.96
Mussina '01-'03: 3.52 ERA

I am sorry. I repeat, I am not interested in spewing fanboy crap. But even the most objective, rational bone in my body fails to comprehend why Mike Mussina has much more room for improvement in '04 than Derek Lowe.

I'll spew fan boy crap. Bernie Williams is d-o-n-e done, and Kevin Millar, once Nixon returns (and you can never count out Nixon) is a part time player. Next comparison, please.

Trot Nixon: Now More Than Ever.

My point is that Mussina has a long proven track record of being an above average major league starter. Lowe does not. He was a good closer for a short while, and since he has joined the rotation his numbers have gotten progressively worse.

To include any of his closer numbers in appraising him as a starter is pure ignorance. It doesn't take much to realize that he had a good run as a starter for a year, then the league figured him out. If Mariano Rivera went to the rotation next year and his ERA and WHIP increased dramatically over the next 2+ years, we would have the same inarguable truth.

Suggesting Derek Lowe belongs in the mid to high 4's for ERA does not seem to me to be an overrating of his abilities based on his track record.

That's all.

If you agree with that, you agree with me that he has as much if not more room for improvement than Mike Mussina.

What scares me is, next year the Sox aren't likely to have Garciaparra return. I'll bet money he's the new second baseman the Yanks have been waiting for. With him at second...oy.