Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 31, 2004
Theo Spins

Theo Espstein was just on NESN talking about the trade. He made the point that the Red Sox had been leading the league in runs scored and ERA over the last three months but were about a .500 team. The reason was the defense. The Red Sox are 41-39 since the start of may. They've scored 466 runs (5.8 per game) with an ERA of 4.44 (not that great) bu they've allowed 416 runs (5.2) per game. Sixteen percent of their runs allowed in that time have been unearned; the league average is 8%.

So Theo has identified the problem. He also took the blame for creating the problem. However, I really doubt this trade fixes the problem. First of all, between Nomar and Pokey, they've had good defense at shortstop all year. And as good as Mientkiewicz is defensively, defense at first doesn't make a big difference. And I don't think Dave Roberts is going to start, so his defense only helps late in the game.

Theo is trying to make this trade look good. But make no mistake, he did not get equal value in return. This was trying to get rid of Nomar in a market that was against him. He did the best he could.


Posted by David Pinto at 07:35 PM | Trades | TrackBack (1)
Comments

David

Nomar's defensive stats this year weren't that great. Pokey was leading the league in errors when he was subbing for an injured Nomar (of course that was due in large part to his exceptional range). On the surface it doesn't seem like much of a defensive upgrade.

These trades do help the defense tremendously though not just for the obvious but also for the fact that Roberts and Cabrera can run. The Red Sox now have many more late inning defensive options as well as baserunning options. In the past it was either Kapler or Pokey as pinch runners. Now the Red Sox have much more flexibility.

Many people will point to Derek Lowe as the big benficiary of this trade but Keith Foulke benefits just as much.

My thoughts on the trade are up on my blog.

Posted by: chris at July 31, 2004 07:46 PM

World Series are rarely (if ever) won with pinch runners.

Posted by: sabernar at July 31, 2004 08:26 PM

Got to remember that Trot Nixon may be out the rest of the season so Dave Roberts will get a lot of PT. If he excels and Gabe Kapler starts to struggle then he will see more PT than Kapler.

Also, Nomar wasn't going to resign this offseason. So why not get something in return? Cabrera will be pretty easy to resign so that leaves 3 of the original 5 to resign: Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. Varitek, in my opinion, will deffinently will be resigned, Lowe has no shot at being resigned, so that leaves money for Pedro. Or the Sox could let him go and sign another FA pitcher like Matt Clement or Matt Morris.

Posted by: Randy at July 31, 2004 09:33 PM

As they'd say on another blog Sabernar,
ouch.

Posted by: Robert at July 31, 2004 11:27 PM

NOMAH flipped. Will it be a flop or a foul ?

On balance I think it was a good move and I would have OK'd it if I was Larry L.

Seems logical to get something for a lost cause. Dan Shaughnesy sure wacked Nomar big on way out door re his clubhouse cancer role...see sun Bos globe.

If Cabrera is good AND resigns with sox, (also a free agent at year end) it will look OK. If he walks, Sox got another 1bman and a light hitting one at that, for the right to have Nomar here for two months.

Better defense should make the pitching look better but will team now work to build runs. That has not been an organizational, "billyball-like" philosophy which to me is why they win blowouts (Fri vs twins) but lose the one run games.(Sat vs twins). For fault with "billyball", look no further than Oakland's playoff record, when games are close for that learning history. Will sox now change that thinking?

But if Nomar is not healthy and only plays ten game for cubs, re-injures heel then what ?

Posted by: David Hornfischer at August 1, 2004 12:42 PM

1) youneverknow if trades will actually work because what is on "paper" is not always what actually happens. like mabry for giambi.

2) i don't see how you lose so many runs if the only "bat" you lose is nomar's. after watching the nationally televised redsox games, i saw that their fielding makes jeff kent look like ozzie, so i'm sure their pitchers are pitching scared and i can't see how that would NOT affect their pitching.

Posted by: lisa gray at August 1, 2004 01:22 PM

Indeed, Theo was spinning all weekend, be it during his (painful) press conference or during the NESN pre-game show or just prior to first pitch Saturday night with Orsillo and Remy. He had the look of a deer in the headlights, and I can't blame him. The trade was so bad, and smacked so much of the Machivellian Lucchino, that you could swear you could see the strings attached to poor Theo's shoulders. He tried vainly to accept responsibility and distance himself at the same time.

The numbers that the Red Sox braintrust embrace so dearly do not lie. Cabrera, Mantkiewicz and Roberts are not players that fill the hole left by the absence of Garciaparra's bat. These are average (at best) players. Two of them can catch the ball and one can run. None can produce Nomar's numbers and never will. Again, the numbers do not lie.

Our defense is better, Theo says unconvincingly. The truth? Mantkiewicz is such an upgrade defensively that he has sat out the last two games against lefties. Therefore, he is a defensive upgrade against right-handed pitching only. The Sox face four left handers this week and worse still, Ortiz is serving his suspension.

The Sox were beaten by the home run in Saturday night's game. The presence of Mantkiewicz made no difference. If Cabrera had been there, it would have made no difference. If Roberts had figured out how to catch a plane to Minnesota and made it for game time, it wouldn't have made a difference. You can't defense a home run, unless you match it with a home run; however, neither of these guys are going to hit home runs. The guy who can plays in Chicago now.

As for the shameful treatment of Nomar since the trade in the press and by the electronic media, well, it's not unexpected. It's outrageous, but not unexpected. It sells papers, tabulates website hits and sells TV ads at obscence prices. Shaunnessy, in particular, is a moronic typist. His idiocy permeates the space for which the Globe pays him.

Lucchino feeds this frenzy and is probably delighting in it, as the less knowledgable of Red Sox Nation gives management a pass. They have not earned a pass, but last November, bought a boatload of bad karma. I cannot help but think of this as I watched the games this weekend: the bullpen blows a lead on Saturday; on Sunday, Cabrera homers but later botches a play a Little Leaguer would make, resulting in another loss to a team the Red Sox should beat. Further, Bellhorn is hit by a pitch in the ninth and suffers a broken thumb. Tonight, the Sox are forced into playing Mueller at second and Youkilis at third, possibly a lineup for the forseeable future. Worse, Cabrera is hitting third!

All of the Red Sox' troubles this year, to hear the media and the shut-ins of talk radio tell it, is Nomar's fault, of course. I'd laugh, but it's all too painful.

You could almost tell what Theo was really thinking as he roasted in the harsh glare of kleig lights: "My God, I just traded Bobby Orr/Larry Bird/Ted Williams/Tom Brady...what have I done?"

It's the bottom of the ninth in Tampa...I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Posted by: Mark Ramos at August 2, 2004 10:01 PM