September 16, 2004
Ichiro Odds
Suzuki had 1 hit last night. He now needs 25 hits in the Mariners 17 remaining games to break George Sisler's record of 257 hits in a season. I estimate that he has 74 AB left. The odds continue to fall:
| Chance of 258 Hits | Based on 2004 | Based on Career |
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| Probability of Breaking Record | .754 | .545 |
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| 95% Confidence, Low End | 19 | 17 |
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| 95% Confidence, High End | 36 | 33 |
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Posted by David Pinto at
09:01 AM
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Records
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TrackBack (0)
Re: George Sisler & Dick "Son of George" Sisler
George Sisler has emerged from the graveyard of baseball records to claim what is his--a potentially unbreakable record is being assaulted after 82 years.
George Sisler as Bill James and others point out had a problem with his eyes after the first five years of his careeer, after which he was just an average hitter; the first five years he was an unconscious hitter, hitting .400 twice. There is no telling what records he might have achieved had he not gone nearly blind, although I think James tries some extrapolations and we can do some Runs Created extrapolations based on the first five years and normal aging patterns to guesstimate.
His son, Dick Sisler, hit a glorious pennant winning shot for the Phillies in the heat of the 1950 pennant race with the Dodgers which has largely been forgotten in the wake of the Bobby Thompson "shot heard round the world" of 1951. Dick spent his whole life trying to out do his father's records.
Oddly enough, today, it seems both have been lost by time, forgotten in an age that only remembers the sluggers of the twenties and forgets the .l400 hitters.
--AJK
