Overture, curtains, lights, 
This is it, the night of nights 
No more rehearsing and nursing a part
We know every part by heart 
Overture, curtains, lights 
This is it, you'll hit the heights 
And oh what heights we'll hit 
On with the show this is it.

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in the uneviable position of being down 3 games in a best of seven format. And they also find themselves playing the only baseball team that has ever been successful in that situation. As Lisa Gray points out in comments to various posts here, the Cardinals can't hit, pitch or run. They're going to need to do at least one of those things well if they are going to win tonight.

They actually have a chance to hit and pitch well. Derek Lowe takes the mound for the Red Sox. Which Lowe will show up tonight? The one who had trouble getting an out during the regular season (.361 OBA allowed in 2004) or the one who doesn't give up hits in the post-season (.186 BA allowed in 2004). It can't be comforting to the Cardinals faithful that the person who has faced Lowe the most, Jim Edmonds, is 0 for 11 against him.

On the pitching side, the Cardinals send Jason Marquis to the hill to try to stop the Red Sox onslaught (no relation to Don Slaught). Based on his regular season numbers, Marquis should be the #1 starter for the Cardinals in the post season. Instead, he's posted a 6.48 ERA, and in 8 1/3 innings has struck out only 2 batters while walking 8 (he had a 2:1 K/W during the regular season). That won't wash against the Red Sox offense. Don't be surprised to see Millar at first base tonight. He as a very good history vs. Marquis (5 for 12 with a home run and a double).

But at this point, I don't really believe the outcome of this game does much to effect the outcome of the series. Even if the bad Lowe and Wakefield show up the next two nights, even if the Red Sox have to use Arroyo in game 6 because Schilling's ankle can't take another stitching, game 7 would be in the bag for the Red Sox. Jeff Suppan can't pitch in Fenway. Here's what I wrote about Suppan when he was traded to the Red Sox last year:

Suppan, like Jose Guillen, is having a career year. Prior to this year, his lowest ERA in a year in which he pitched 100 innings was 4.37. He's never been a strikeout pitcher and he ususally gives up a good number of HR. His walks are usually between 2.5 and 3.0 per 9 IP. This year, he's gotten those down to 2.0. He's also reduced his HR rate by 45%. Is it real? There's a good chance it's the park in Pittsburgh. He had a 2.88 ERA in Pittsburgh and a 4.36 ERA on the road. He's probably better than Mendoza, but I would not be surprised to see him get pounded at Fenway.

Jeff gave up 8 HR in 39 innings at Fenway park after the trade, 4 in 24 innings on the road. So La Russa would have the choice of Suppan on four days or Marquis on three. Whoever they send out, that pitcher would have to face Pedro. I'll give that one to the Sox 90% of the time.