November 17, 2004
More Productive Outs
Repoz at Baseball Primer has a discussion going on about this article on how the Angels are encouraging their players to advance runners, even with productive outs. I'm not impressed.
As one of the commentors at Primer says:
Mikael is right that there is a good point buried under all the junk. Too bad there's SO much junk!
The point of Mr. Smith's article is one Bill James made 20 years ago. Given two teams with the same OBA, the team with the higher batting average will have the better offense. Hits are simply more valuable than walks in advancing baserunners.
If the Angels philosophy is to make contact, I can't argue with that. It worked well for them against a poor fielding Yankees team in the 2002 playoffs. If it's bad for pitchers to strike out few batters, then it should be good for offenses not to strike out very often. The Angels do that very well, and they should be commended.
But the author misses the A's philosophy. It's not "draw walks." It's "don't swing at bad pitches". It seems to me that the Angels philosophy will be that it's okay to swing at bad pitches if you advance a runner. If that's true, it's wrong. There are very few batters who can be successful in the long term doing that (Ichrio, Puckett and Gwynn come to mind), but most players will be more like Alfonso Soriano, who just expands the strike zone and end up striking out more. And as Mr. Smith wrote, you can't make a productive out with a strikeout.
The Angels have the personnel that make contact without expanding the strike zone. I like that. As I wrote during the 2002 World Series:
They've shown that aggressive style throughout the playoffs. What I love about watching this team is that they know how to hit. So many teams go up and just swing for the fences. The Angels are trying to make contact, and when they do they really drive the ball. Eckstein chokes up on the bat! I never see anyone do that anymore. Get the bat on the ball and good things will happen. I'm glad the Angels are teaching us that again.
I just hope they understand swinging at good pitches is part of making contact. Otherwise, we'll see their strikeout totals go up and their valued efficiency go down.
Posted by David Pinto at
04:12 PM
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Given two teams with the same OBA and same SLG, it is the team with the lower BA that will create more runs.
See the last chart here:
http://www.tangotiger.net/ops2.html
This is true as long as the OBP is below .360. IIRC, if team OBP is under .360, then a lower BA gets you more runs. If the team OBP is over .360, then a higher BA gets you more runs. This, while comparing two teams with the exact same OBP and SLG.
"If it's bad for pitchers to strike out few batters, then it should be good for offenses not to strike out very often."
It should be, but it isn't. Team strike out percentage does not correlate with winning percentage.
i never understood the reason that a lot of people insist that a ballplayer should "expand the strikezone." since very few guys can hit pitches outside of the strikezone, why do it? seems to be most sensible to say don't swing at pitches you can't hit.