Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 17, 2005
What Would I Do?

There are two comments to this post which deserve more attention.

The first:

David, why would you like to see a medical substance legalized? While the harm is not known for long-term use, they certainly are not good for you. At best, they don't harm you that much.

I'm not sure how much they help either, especially in the way most people feel they do, giving you the strength to hit for more power. If they are a performance enhancer, I would guess they increase stamina more than anything else.

But, if they even help a little bit, it creates a playing field that is not level. If they cause even a small bit of harm, I'm glad they are now banned. Finally, I'm curious if you feel all drugs should be legal, or just steroids, and how you came to that conclusion. Looking forward to your reply, David.

The second:

Well he** David, the criminal justice system sucks too. I mean there are people who are falsely convicted and the jury system is far from binary, it's "beyond the reasonable doubt" of twelve imperfect human beings, so in order to spare people from being falsely convicted let's just say to he** with the whole thing, and we'll let everybody get away with everything. Because it's an imperfect world after all.

How many NFL, NBA or Olympic athletes have had their lives ruined by a false positive? Really I'd like to know.

I'm all for libertarinaism, but you do need rules somewhere.

First of all, medical substances are legalized all the time. Ibuprofen used to be a prescription drug (it still is in high doses). And it's a performance enhancer. If you take Ibuprofen after exercise, your muscles recover faster, and you can exersice more often. You can lift every day instead of every other day. However, frequent use of Ibuprofen can also lead to liver damage. But you can control for this. You can get a physical once a year and have the doctor test your liver.

Ibuprofen is an example of a drug that is effective at lower doses than originally thought. The birth control pill is another. The pill is now so safe that teenage girls will take it to prevent acne. It could very well be that if we allowed steroid use:

  1. Doctors might find that low doses of steroids are as effective as high doses.
  2. That low doses do much less long term harm.
  3. That researchers might develop something safer.

That's what many of the new drugs are about. Same result, fewer side effects. So my argument has always been legalize anabolic steroids and let players use them under a doctor's care and in the open. And then we can really learn about the risks and the rewards.

But since steroids are not legal, what would I do instead of testing? What should be the rules? My time spent in information retrieval research taught me that multiple sources of information are better than a single data point. For example, in retireving documents with a search engine you need to look at the frequency of search terms in a document. But you also need to look at the frequency of those terms in the entire collection of documents. Words with high frequency in a document but low frequency in a collection are good search terms, because they zero in on a few stories about the subject. Some search engines add other information based on links, word position, meta data, etc. So why not do the same thing in baseball drug testing.

For example, two players have a T/E ratio of 4. At that level either might be using testosterone or not. But one of the players has put on 25 pounds of muscle while the other hasn't changed. The guy who put on 25 pounds frequents a gym where arrests have been made for distributing steroids. Which one of these people is more likely to be cheating? Plus, with at least one drug test a year, you can establish a baseline for these tests. Was there a big change from previous results? If your T/E ratio suddenly goes from 1 to 5, that's good evidence something has changed.

So don't have a cut off. Look at all the evidence. Realize that no one piece of information tells you the truth, but a number of factors pointing toward cheating makes the offense more likely. Depending on one number from a test is the easy way, but it's error prone. Gathering more information is somewhat costlier and requires judgement, but in the long run will be fairer to all involved.


Posted by David Pinto at 12:25 PM | Cheating | TrackBack (0)
Comments

David, two points:

1) "However, frequent use of Ibuprofen can also lead to liver damage. But you can control for this. You can get a physical once a year and have the doctor test your liver." That's not really controlling the damage. You can detect damage that way, but not necessarily control it. What happens if the liver is already (irreparably) damaged? Then you didn't control anything. You just detected it. (Small point, but worth noting.)

2) "That's what many of the new drugs are about. Same result, fewer side effects. So my argument has always been legalize anabolic steroids and let players use them under a doctor's care and in the open. And then we can really learn about the risks and the rewards." You don't learn the risks and rewards of something just by making it legal. You run scientific tests in order to do that. If Baseball, or anyone else, is interested in legalizing steroids, then they should do some comprehensive scientific tests on them. The kind of tests (and write-ups) that get published in medical journals, not the kind that 3 guys do in their basement (or baseball players do on the field). If you are so gung-ho about legalizing steroids (and other performance enhancing drugs) I don't understand why you aren't calling for more comprehensive studies of these drugs FIRST. That would make much more sense. That way, you can get even MORE data points, instead of the there-is-no-definitive-proof data point that you keep using.

Posted by: sabernar at January 17, 2005 12:44 PM

Sabernar-

1) Do you know if this is the case for liver damage? i.e. do the markers for liver damage show up before or after the damage becomes irreprable?


There really isn't any "sicentific test" for long term damage due to a drug. There are mouse and other animal models which can be very instructive, but that isn't the same as testing in humans. Drugs don't have to do long term studies (i.e. more than a year or two), because if they did, it would take 10-20 years to get a drug to the market. And from the study David cited in his last post, people are studying steroid use.

David is suggesting legalizing it as a perscription drug, which would probably lead a large number of current users to seek out a doctors care. My guess is that the reduced risk associated with this step would more than outweigh any added risk from people who would start using them because they are legalized.

Posted by: Ivan at January 17, 2005 01:21 PM

Interesting ideas about the "other pieces of evidence" that you'd use. But your examples seem very circumstantial. I'd hate to be suspended just because I happen to go to a gym that was associated with bad things.

Also, this seems like the kinds of evidence that would get appealed, and then some arbitrator throws it out.

For better or worse, you need more objective measurements. I just wish that more people understood the issues involved with setting a bar like this.

Posted by: Sean McCulloch at January 17, 2005 02:40 PM

may I point out that steroids per se are not illegal. I believe it is anebolic steroids that are. Non anebolic steroids are used, for example, to treat asthma.

Posted by: David Gerstman at January 17, 2005 04:47 PM

Docs can prescribe steroids to assist recovery. Brian Bosworth was suspended by the NCAA for using prescribed steroids.

I still feel it is a good system, one used for many years in tennis, the Olympics, and the NFL and NBA of late. There have been very few problems and, if memory serves, no denials when positive tests come about.

I certainly hope it goes well, and feel it will.

Posted by: Al at January 17, 2005 06:53 PM

I would guess that they have set the bar high enough that LOTS of ofenders slip by. I think this is better than false positives, but I don't know that it fixes the problem.


Ivan

Posted by: Ivan at January 18, 2005 12:26 AM

Perhaps the fear of ostracization will be enough for most if not all the players to get off the juice. Of course there will always be some players doing something trying to get an edge, but hopefully this will really level the playing field. What kind of contracts do you think the first positive testing players are going to get?

Posted by: sabernar at January 18, 2005 09:45 AM

I don't know: I still think it would be pretty awesome to have PCP-crazed linebackers closing in on frightened-for-their lives QBs.

Posted by: Mark at January 18, 2005 09:46 AM

Nobody's answering the question about historical false positives in other sports, so I'll point out the there certainly have been folks who protested their innocence vociferously-- nobody paid any attention to them so we'll never know whether they were victims or liars.

Mary Decker was suspended near the end of her track career for exceeding the acceptable testosterone ratio-- I'm told by the smallest detectable amount. I believe her husband had been in trouble before, adding associative guilt to the picture, but she claimed injustice and it always seemed to me that if God told me there was one woman on earth who was over the norm naturally and invited me to guess who, my money'd be on Mary Decker Slaney.

Posted by: john swinney at January 18, 2005 12:04 PM

A bit off topic, but Ibuprofen doesn't commonly cause liver damage at high doses. Usually the patient has to have pre-existing liver disease, such as hepatitis. It CAN (and often does) cause kidney damage and gastrointestinal bleeding, as can other anti-inflammatories. You may be thinking of Tylenol - that's much more commonly the culprit in pain-killer related liver damage. Just a clarification from a physician reader.

Posted by: chad at January 18, 2005 01:00 PM

Thanks very much. I thought Ibuprofen caused liver damage with continuous use (taken daily).

Posted by: David Pinto at January 18, 2005 01:37 PM
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