Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen

January 30, 2005

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen

Here's the table for major league second basemen in 2004. Again, fielders are included if they were on the field for 1000 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Second Basemen 2004, 1000 balls in play.
	In Play	Actual Outs	Expected Outs	DER	Expected DER	Difference
Chase Utley	1180	150	141.26	0.127	0.120	0.00740
Nick Green	1786	232	224.57	0.130	0.126	0.00416
Willie Harris	2041	253	246.58	0.124	0.121	0.00315
Bill Hall	1253	133	129.21	0.106	0.103	0.00302
Orlando Hudson	3567	499	488.80	0.140	0.137	0.00286
Mark Loretta	4090	504	499.61	0.123	0.122	0.00107
Placido Polanco	2918	345	344.39	0.118	0.118	0.00021
Tony Graffanino	2090	245	244.69	0.117	0.117	0.00015
Luis Rivas	2637	343	343.31	0.130	0.130	-0.00012
Aaron Miles	3351	399	402.28	0.119	0.120	-0.00098
Rey Sanchez	2177	250	252.33	0.115	0.116	-0.00107
Jeff Kent	3449	394	398.93	0.114	0.116	-0.00143
Juan Uribe	1935	228	230.88	0.118	0.119	-0.00149
Mark Grudzielanek	1609	214	217.31	0.133	0.135	-0.00205
Keith Ginter	1413	151	155.05	0.107	0.110	-0.00286
Junior Spivey	1597	194	199.30	0.121	0.125	-0.00332
D'Angelo Jimenez	4031	453	468.32	0.112	0.116	-0.00380
Luis Castillo	3777	449	465.50	0.119	0.123	-0.00437
Omar Infante	2710	305	319.00	0.113	0.118	-0.00517
Alex Cora	3232	359	377.91	0.111	0.117	-0.00585
Bret Boone	4032	430	454.63	0.107	0.113	-0.00611
Alfonso Soriano	3923	459	483.92	0.117	0.123	-0.00635
Adam Kennedy	3665	452	475.33	0.123	0.130	-0.00637
Tony Womack	3328	421	442.27	0.127	0.133	-0.00639
Brian Roberts	4057	456	482.41	0.112	0.119	-0.00651
Mark McLemore	1127	128	135.49	0.114	0.120	-0.00664
Jose Castillo	2860	318	338.13	0.111	0.118	-0.00704
Ronnie Belliard	4041	467	496.11	0.116	0.123	-0.00720
Marcus Giles	2421	289	307.41	0.119	0.127	-0.00760
Danny Garcia	1091	115	123.43	0.105	0.113	-0.00773
Ray Durham	3076	344	375.95	0.112	0.122	-0.01039
Todd Walker	2094	254	276.35	0.121	0.132	-0.01067
Jose Hernandez	1024	120	131.04	0.117	0.128	-0.01079
Marco Scutaro	2971	332	366.85	0.112	0.123	-0.01173
Scott A Hairston	2157	220	245.38	0.102	0.114	-0.01177
Jamey Carroll	1044	103	115.80	0.099	0.111	-0.01226
Geoff Blum	1127	111	125.46	0.098	0.111	-0.01283
Ruben A Gotay	1155	112	127.71	0.097	0.111	-0.01360
Jose Reyes	1107	122	138.80	0.110	0.125	-0.01518
Jose Vidro	2674	266	308.07	0.099	0.115	-0.01573
Mark Bellhorn	3112	367	417.22	0.118	0.134	-0.01614
Miguel Cairo	2619	331	375.45	0.126	0.143	-0.01697
Enrique Wilson	1798	214	254.66	0.119	0.142	-0.02261

Like the shortstops it wasn't a good fielding season for the second basemen overall. This table does give some credence to the idea that Jeff Kent is a better fielder than conventional wisdom says. I hope someday to improve this program to a point where it's similar to whatever DePodesta uses.

This list should also make Phillies fans happy. They appear to have two of best in Utley and Polanco. And while Nick Green didn't add much to the Atlanta offense, he ate up balls at 2nd last season.

At the other end of the scale, the Yankees look like they actually upgraded their range at second replacing Cairo with Womack. And if defense is so important to the Red Sox, I wonder how long Mark Bellhorn will last at 2nd.

Posted by David Pinto at 05:33 PM | Defense | TrackBack (2)

Comments

How can only 8 2B be "above average"?

Posted by: Al at January 30, 2005 11:07 PM

If a player had time at 2nd and SS, are all fielding chances included or just those for 2B?

Posted by: Mike R. at January 31, 2005 08:41 AM

David,

Reading the comments here and at BTF, and using the 2002-2004 data as your baseline, and not adjusting it annually such that the average is set to zero is causing tons of confusion.

I'd suggest adding a column where you take the diff and multiply it by 4400 (or whatever the number of balls in play per 162 games is), and set the baseline so that the mean per position = 0. I think it's easier to say that Reese is 44 outs above average per 162 games, than to say he is +.0100 outs per team BIP above average.

Posted by: tangotiger at January 31, 2005 10:02 AM