January 31, 2005
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders
Here is the table lising 2004 centerfielders on the field for 1000 balls in play.
Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2004, 1000 balls in play.
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Wily Mo Pena | 1211 | 144 | 135.42 | 0.119 | 0.112 | 0.00708 |
Corey Patterson | 3830 | 324 | 301.71 | 0.085 | 0.079 | 0.00582 |
Andruw Jones | 4164 | 389 | 374.85 | 0.093 | 0.090 | 0.00340 |
Jay Payton | 3144 | 333 | 322.31 | 0.106 | 0.103 | 0.00340 |
Grady Sizemore | 1033 | 105 | 102.31 | 0.102 | 0.099 | 0.00261 |
Luis Terrero | 1443 | 111 | 107.44 | 0.077 | 0.074 | 0.00247 |
Lew Ford | 1028 | 101 | 99.32 | 0.098 | 0.097 | 0.00163 |
Vernon Wells | 3510 | 327 | 321.70 | 0.093 | 0.092 | 0.00151 |
Mark Kotsay | 3809 | 345 | 340.13 | 0.091 | 0.089 | 0.00128 |
Luis Matos | 2403 | 221 | 218.19 | 0.092 | 0.091 | 0.00117 |
Tike Redman | 3643 | 340 | 340.24 | 0.093 | 0.093 | -0.00006 |
Preston Wilson | 1432 | 118 | 118.13 | 0.082 | 0.082 | -0.00009 |
Jim Edmonds | 3738 | 314 | 314.49 | 0.084 | 0.084 | -0.00013 |
Endy Chavez | 3304 | 301 | 301.54 | 0.091 | 0.091 | -0.00016 |
Marquis Grissom | 3799 | 342 | 342.66 | 0.090 | 0.090 | -0.00017 |
Mike Cameron | 3772 | 354 | 355.96 | 0.094 | 0.094 | -0.00052 |
Torii Hunter | 3346 | 312 | 313.81 | 0.093 | 0.094 | -0.00054 |
Nook P Logan | 1179 | 117 | 119.19 | 0.099 | 0.101 | -0.00185 |
Laynce Nix | 2752 | 222 | 227.64 | 0.081 | 0.083 | -0.00205 |
Milton Bradley | 2349 | 230 | 234.97 | 0.098 | 0.100 | -0.00212 |
Scott Podsednik | 4168 | 392 | 400.93 | 0.094 | 0.096 | -0.00214 |
Coco Crisp | 2472 | 206 | 211.47 | 0.083 | 0.086 | -0.00221 |
Rocco Baldelli | 3278 | 342 | 349.51 | 0.104 | 0.107 | -0.00229 |
Juan Pierre | 4257 | 365 | 378.59 | 0.086 | 0.089 | -0.00319 |
Kenny Lofton | 1657 | 162 | 168.29 | 0.098 | 0.102 | -0.00379 |
Marlon Byrd | 2268 | 196 | 205.04 | 0.086 | 0.090 | -0.00398 |
Craig Biggio | 1636 | 134 | 140.68 | 0.082 | 0.086 | -0.00408 |
Carlos Beltran | 4235 | 397 | 415.38 | 0.094 | 0.098 | -0.00434 |
Steve Finley | 4148 | 359 | 377.62 | 0.087 | 0.091 | -0.00449 |
Johnny Damon | 3792 | 349 | 366.12 | 0.092 | 0.097 | -0.00452 |
Aaron Rowand | 3117 | 291 | 306.32 | 0.093 | 0.098 | -0.00492 |
Jason Michaels | 1000 | 96 | 102.67 | 0.096 | 0.103 | -0.00667 |
Jeromy Burnitz | 1622 | 114 | 126.52 | 0.070 | 0.078 | -0.00772 |
David DeJesus | 2361 | 231 | 252.60 | 0.098 | 0.107 | -0.00915 |
Randy Winn | 3304 | 341 | 372.91 | 0.103 | 0.113 | -0.00966 |
Alex Sanchez | 2082 | 178 | 200.73 | 0.085 | 0.096 | -0.01092 |
Ken Griffey Jr. | 2077 | 173 | 199.64 | 0.083 | 0.096 | -0.01283 |
Chone Figgins | 1035 | 92 | 105.30 | 0.089 | 0.102 | -0.01285 |
Garret Anderson | 2393 | 211 | 243.09 | 0.088 | 0.102 | -0.01341 |
Bernie Williams | 2616 | 214 | 255.18 | 0.082 | 0.098 | -0.01574 |
The first thing I notice is that Andruw Jones is very good and Bernie Williams is very bad. So in this case the system appears to be getting the end points right. The thing that really surprises me is the equality of Biggio and Beltran. Here's a table comparing them just with the Astros:
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Carlos Beltran | 2242 | 200 | 203.15 | 0.089 | 0.091 | -0.00140 |
Craig Biggio | 1636 | 134 | 140.68 | 0.082 | 0.086 | -0.00408 |
Jason Lane | 125 | 8 | 8.54 | 0.064 | 0.068 | -0.00436 |
Beltran was much better with the Astros than Biggio; his poor fielding was a result of his time with Kansas City last year.
Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
Ruben Mateo | 133 | 12 | 9.62 | 0.090 | 0.072 | 0.01789 |
Carlos Beltran | 1993 | 197 | 212.23 | 0.099 | 0.106 | -0.00764 |
David DeJesus | 2361 | 231 | 252.60 | 0.098 | 0.107 | -0.00915 |
So the question for the Mets is, which Beltran will show up in centerfield next season? Neither is better than Cameron, and one is a lot worse.
Posted by David Pinto at
01:40 PM
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Defense
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I took David's fascinating work, applied some adjustments, and reformatted.
The adjustment is to lower the predicted outs by .00256 per team BIP for each CF.
Numbers below shows the outs above average, per 162 games. The "games" is team BIP divided by 4500.
Listed are all players with at least 70 "games".
Outs Games Player
38 138 Corey Patterson
27 150 Andruw Jones
27 113 Jay Payton
18 126 Vernon Wells
17 137 Mark Kotsay
17 87 Luis Matos
11 131 Tike Redman
11 135 Jim Edmonds
11 119 Endy Chavez
11 137 Marquis Grissom
9 136 Mike Cameron
9 120 Torii Hunter
2 99 Laynce Nix
2 85 Milton Bradley
2 150 Scott Podsednik
2 89 Coco Crisp
1 118 Rocco Baldelli
-3 153 Juan Pierre
-6 82 Marlon Byrd
-8 152 Carlos Beltran
-9 149 Steve Finley
-9 137 Johnny Damon
-11 112 Aaron Rowand
-30 85 David DeJesus
-32 119 Randy Winn
-38 75 Alex Sanchez
-46 75 Ken Griffey Jr.
-49 86 Garret Anderson
-59 94 Bernie Williams
IIRC, Aaron Rowand was great according to UZR, which matches fans' observations. But UZR loved Winn too, while fans hate him.
Nothing can save Junior and Bernie.
It's also good to remember that David is looking at slices and hardness of ball hit, and does not look at distance. I don't think David is getting a good approximation of "hang time" based on slice and hardness of ball hit.
There's no better stat that is not measured than "hang time". Distance or grid location, to me, is a necessity, esp for OF.
David, how can Cameron, Hunter, and Beltran all come up as "below average" CF's? At least the above comment makes two of them above average, which makes sense to me.
And who is Nook P Logan?
I still don't see how most major leaguers can be below average fielders. Tangotiger's comment above helps a lot, but, like others have said previously, -0.1283 doesn't have much meaning to me.
David, can you do something with that? I'm sure it's only another simple mathematical adjustment so we laypeople can have an easier time putting our brains around all this? Thanks.
Nook is/maybe the Tigers' CF. He was a mid/late season call up, IIRC. One reason why the Mud Hens finished the season 6-28. It was fun to watch him play though. Not a lot of pop in the bat, but very speedy. Nook itself is a nickname.
I hope Nook sticks. One of my favorite Dr. Seuss rhymes involves a Nook.
BUT
A Nook can't read
So a Nook can't cook.
So what good to a Nook
Is a hook cook book?
I have started doing some work on converting these figures to runs. The URL will take you to my blog where I'm doing that, the explanation is a few entries down ... the method (of converting these outs to runs) works far better for MIF than for OF, btw ...
sabernar, the way that I turn these ratings into something meaningful is to look at the "Actual Outs" and "Predicted Outs" columns. That tells you how much better than "predicted" the player was, in real outs. I find that easier to digest than the rate.
I agree that it would be nice to at least have the 2004 average listed in the table, and preferably an outs above average or something. Sounds like David's already working on the latter.
I want to believe these CF numbers are accurate. Finley's nowhere near a gold glover, but at least he'll be a huge improvement on having Garret Anderson in center.
While I've posted my doubts about how the infielders compare in UZR and PMR, the outfield ratings may be different and still consistent.
In Finley's case, it could be he's only a little below average in recording outs, but he plays shallow so that the ones he misses results in extra bases more often, costing his team a bunch of runs.
Having seen Beltran play in KC, I have serious doubts that he is a below average fielder. He gets to balls that he shouldn't regularly. He may not be as good as Cameron, but I have a lot of trouble believing he is below average. Is it possible that more balls are judged to be in his zone due to the limited range of KC's RF and LF's? Could it be possible that balls in play are scored to CF when they fall in because he's the closest fielder, even if the ball was in left? I have seen this happen several times and I'm curious how the BIP's are scored.
They say Johnny Damon has no arm ,did Bernie Williams have one? Mickey Rivers?Could you please name the past Centerfielders since 1955