Baseball Musings: More on Ordonez

February 08, 2005

More on Ordonez

I haven't been able to think that much about the Tigers signing of Magglio Ordonez, but Joe Sheehan has (link requires registration). He doesn't like the deal.

There are so many things wrong with this deal that it's hard to structure a column about it. For one thing, Ordonez gets a longer, more lucrative deal than Vladimir Guerrero got last winter. He'll make just $2 million a year less than Carlos Beltran--younger, comparable hitter, more defensive value, not coming off a broken season--will over the course of his contract.
Neither of those two players hit the market not having played baseball since June of the previous season. Ordonez, who suffered an injury to his left knee on May 19 in a collision with Willie Harris, has played in just a couple of games since then. He underwent two operations on the knee, then was diagnosed with bone marrow edema in the knee, which isn't something that typically shows up in "Under the Knife." Ordonez didn't play any winter ball; the Tigers have signed him based largely on doctors' reports and faith in mankind.

On top of that, Ordonez just has not had that impressive a career. His win shares peaked at 26 when Mags was twenty eight years old, and he had five straight 20 win share seasons before he was hurt this year. Compare that to Giambi, who also was a free agent at the same age. Giambi was coming off two consectutive 38 win share seasons. Fifteen million a year for Mags is just two much, even if he stays healthy throughout the contract.

I believe the Tigers were caught when the supply of free agents dwindled. While all the other teams were willingly to wait and see, Detroit jumped in with an offer that couldn't be refused. Ordonez will likely improve the team, but it's at a very high cost.

Posted by David Pinto at 02:15 PM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)

Comments

But if you look at Magglio's other numbers, you see that his OPS+ over his past 3 healthy seasons are about 20 points higher then Beltran's. And his defense is better than people think, while Beltran's is worse, so they are much closer defensively then people like to think. Magglio's OBA and SLG are both higher then Beltran, who is COMPLETLEY overrated offensively.

Posted by: sabernar at February 8, 2005 02:58 PM

It's not necessarily the fifteen million a year that gets me. After all, Detroit is still paying the "tiger tax" for performing so poorly the last decade. It's the $15 million for 5-7 years that is astounding.

The Tigers aren't in a position yet where they can get value signings. They have to overpay for guys who are risks. If Ordonez isn't injured and posted a typical season last year, I don't think the Tigers would have gotten him at the price they did. I'm not saying that they got a good deal, just that they did what they had to to get the the player they wanted.

The big fear is that this limits the team in the future. Who's to say at this point? Mike Illitch hasn't been afraid to keep adding salary to the Wings to keep them on top.The same may be true in this case. At the same time, Illitch is 76 and who knows how much longer he'll own the team. The new owner might not share I's enthusiasm.

I'm not necessarily trying to defend the terms of the contract, because I don't think Ordonez can play well enough to make this a good deal.

Posted by: billfer at February 8, 2005 03:56 PM

It's just another example of teams being completely unable to "Just Say No" when it comes to Scott Boras. Any GM worth his salt will set a limit in terms of how much he's willing to pay for *any* player, regardless of his representation. If the GM knows he can't hack it in negotiations with Boras (who is notorious for driving up the price of his players even when there is no competition for their services), then he should just stay the hell away. Sometimes part of doing a good job is just being able to know your own limitations and staying away from situations where you know you'll end up doing more harm than good.

Ordonez just had a surgery that's so new it's still called "experimental." And he's on the wrong side of 30. And no one else was willing to go longer than one year on him. And somehow, Boras magically gets the Tigers to sign Ordonez to a deal that pays him $15 million per year for FIVE YEARS. Eric Chavez didn't get that kind of money. Adrian Beltre didn't get that kind of money. Vladimir Guerrero didn't get that kind of money. Remember Vlad? 2004 AL MVP? The guy who is two years younger than Ordonez? Ordonez is getting paid nearly as much as Beltran, and Carlos is *three years younger*.

Obviously, they did a good thing by adding the "knee clause" in there, but even taking that into consideration, there is absolutely no way that you can expect Ordonez to justify his contract, even should he stay healthy. And it may well be that while Ordonez doesn't get hurt enough to warrant DL treatment, it messes with his play enough to have him become below-average. Even if he is healthy, there are after-surgery considerations. His body literally isn't the same anymore.

All the MLB teams should've done what they did to Millwood - told him to go away and prove himself worthy of the money. We all know what happened to Kevin Millwood, right?

Posted by: Inquisitor at February 9, 2005 12:18 AM

This was the worst signing of the off-season so far. Boras is making up for getting somewhat 'fair' deals for Drew and Beltre. At BEST, you probably get Mags starting at a .930 OPS and dwindling down to .850 thru the deal. Way too much to pay a corner outfielder when you look at not only the injury risk, but the fact that he may be coming out of his prime within a year or two...

Posted by: Ian at February 9, 2005 02:06 PM

How can anyone -with a straight face- even compare Ordonez to Beltran? Offensively overrated? Beltran is a much better base-runner and a far more dangerous base-stealer. Moreover, he is three years younger and entering his prime whereas Ordonez has a bum knee. Lastly, with regard to defense, refer to Pinto's previous post comparing Beltran's DER Difference in KC v. Houston. Beltran's numbers were significantly worse in KC- a result of poor coaching, positioning, maybe.

Posted by: Eric at February 9, 2005 02:26 PM

Not to mention Detroit's a dying city. Its population is now under a million, from a high of 2 million. Illitch needs to do anything to get people to come into town to watch a game, even if it's overspending. Besides, with the hockey lockout, doesn't he have money to burn?

Posted by: Robert at February 9, 2005 03:10 PM