Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers

February 09, 2005

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers

Not too many people have tried to measure the range of pitchers. One nice thing about this model is that it builds in the handedness of the pitcher. So the model should automatically account for the fact that righties fall off the mound in one direction and lefties in the other. Since pitchers are not in the field as much as other position players, I've lowered the minimum to 500 balls in play.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Pitchers, 2004, 500 balls in play.
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Livan Hernandez	745	59	40.85	0.079	0.055	0.02436
Greg Maddux	642	58	43.74	0.090	0.068	0.02220
Kenny Rogers	707	44	29.42	0.062	0.042	0.02063
Freddy Garcia	600	38	25.63	0.063	0.043	0.02062
Mike Mussina	501	32	22.04	0.064	0.044	0.01989
Kirk Rueter	694	53	41.26	0.076	0.059	0.01691
Jon Garland	694	43	31.63	0.062	0.046	0.01639
Cory Lidle	687	48	37.72	0.070	0.055	0.01496
Mark Buehrle	758	47	35.97	0.062	0.047	0.01455
Jake Westbrook	694	49	39.21	0.071	0.056	0.01411
Javier Vazquez	595	35	26.90	0.059	0.045	0.01361
Tom Glavine	705	48	39.00	0.068	0.055	0.01277
Russ Ortiz	615	41	33.29	0.067	0.054	0.01253
Woody Williams	599	34	26.58	0.057	0.044	0.01239
Esteban Loaiza	595	31	24.29	0.052	0.041	0.01128
Mike Hampton	592	40	34.23	0.068	0.058	0.00975
Josh Fogg	597	36	30.27	0.060	0.051	0.00960
Miguel Batista	641	32	26.32	0.050	0.041	0.00886
Brett Tomko	634	26	20.71	0.041	0.033	0.00835
Chris Carpenter	521	35	31.06	0.067	0.060	0.00756
Mark Mulder	689	42	36.80	0.061	0.053	0.00755
Steve Trachsel	651	38	33.45	0.058	0.051	0.00699
Bartolo Colon	627	32	27.85	0.051	0.044	0.00662
Mark Hendrickson	638	26	21.84	0.041	0.034	0.00652
Brian Anderson	588	21	17.51	0.036	0.030	0.00593
Brian Lawrence	659	39	35.36	0.059	0.054	0.00552
Brandon Webb	619	37	33.83	0.060	0.055	0.00512
Kelvim Escobar	583	22	19.25	0.038	0.033	0.00472
Johan Santana	529	24	21.84	0.045	0.041	0.00409
Jeff Suppan	603	30	28.29	0.050	0.047	0.00284
Doug Davis	614	27	25.44	0.044	0.041	0.00253
Roy Oswalt	686	35	33.43	0.051	0.049	0.00229
Dontrelle Willis	618	33	31.65	0.053	0.051	0.00219
Jose Lima	540	27	25.88	0.050	0.048	0.00208
Paul Wilson	584	26	24.88	0.045	0.043	0.00192
Curt Schilling	641	15	13.79	0.023	0.022	0.00188
Eric Milton	577	24	23.22	0.042	0.040	0.00135
Jamie Moyer	643	27	26.29	0.042	0.041	0.00111
Odalis Perez	585	40	39.38	0.068	0.067	0.00106
Jason Marquis	628	34	33.48	0.054	0.053	0.00083
Tim Wakefield	606	23	22.50	0.038	0.037	0.00082
Mike Maroth	728	33	33.25	0.045	0.046	-0.00034
Adam Eaton	604	27	27.22	0.045	0.045	-0.00036
Barry Zito	642	25	25.85	0.039	0.040	-0.00133
Al Leiter	508	21	21.72	0.041	0.043	-0.00142
Kazuhisa Ishii	525	14	14.78	0.027	0.028	-0.00149
Jaret Wright	537	28	28.86	0.052	0.054	-0.00160
Carl Pavano	693	31	32.46	0.045	0.047	-0.00211
Kyle Lohse	660	21	22.53	0.032	0.034	-0.00231
Matt Morris	621	31	32.77	0.050	0.053	-0.00285
Brad Radke	702	24	26.39	0.034	0.038	-0.00341
Jeff Weaver	680	32	34.71	0.047	0.051	-0.00398
Carlos Silva	730	25	27.92	0.034	0.038	-0.00400
Derek Lowe	640	40	42.61	0.063	0.067	-0.00407
Ben Sheets	611	22	24.55	0.036	0.040	-0.00418
Roger Clemens	559	23	25.37	0.041	0.045	-0.00425
Bronson Arroyo	538	16	18.34	0.030	0.034	-0.00435
John Thomson	623	28	30.94	0.045	0.050	-0.00472
Pedro Martinez	574	18	20.81	0.031	0.036	-0.00490
Ryan Drese	713	34	37.50	0.048	0.053	-0.00491
Ismael Valdez	600	17	19.98	0.028	0.033	-0.00496
Ted Lilly	556	14	16.94	0.025	0.030	-0.00529
Jason Schmidt	557	22	25.17	0.039	0.045	-0.00568
Rodrigo Lopez	514	20	22.93	0.039	0.045	-0.00571
Jose Acevedo	505	18	20.95	0.036	0.041	-0.00585
Nate Robertson	597	26	29.62	0.044	0.050	-0.00607
Kris Benson	632	26	29.92	0.041	0.047	-0.00621
C.C. Sabathia	547	16	19.46	0.029	0.036	-0.00633
Brett Myers	563	24	27.86	0.043	0.049	-0.00685
Sidney Ponson	737	29	34.05	0.039	0.046	-0.00685
David Wells	657	35	39.77	0.053	0.061	-0.00726
Randy Johnson	601	21	25.69	0.035	0.043	-0.00781
Jason Jennings	654	27	32.38	0.041	0.050	-0.00822
John Lackey	620	22	27.36	0.035	0.044	-0.00864
Shawn Estes	641	25	30.89	0.039	0.048	-0.00919
Mark Redman	627	18	24.15	0.029	0.039	-0.00981
Carlos Zambrano	584	29	35.15	0.050	0.060	-0.01053
Jimmy Gobble	519	10	15.67	0.019	0.030	-0.01093
Ryan Franklin	659	15	22.30	0.023	0.034	-0.01107
Darrell May	616	8	15.30	0.013	0.025	-0.01186
Jeremy Bonderman	516	16	22.62	0.031	0.044	-0.01282
Cliff Lee	516	8	15.65	0.016	0.030	-0.01482
Tim Hudson	624	27	36.86	0.043	0.059	-0.01580
Jon Lieber	605	19	28.72	0.031	0.047	-0.01606
Rich Harden	536	16	24.84	0.030	0.046	-0.01648
Jason Johnson	647	17	27.92	0.026	0.043	-0.01687

Other than Greg Maddux having won many gold gloves, I don't know enough about the fielding reputation of pitchers to know if these numbers look good. If there are any experts in the field, please let me know.

Obviously, fielding ability should not weigh very much in evaluating a pitcher. Still, it's nice to see who is a cat around the mound.

Posted by David Pinto at 01:58 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Livan, Rogers & Mussina at the top of the list all have pretty good reputations. Nobody at the bottom of the list really stuck out, though.

Posted by: iyiiki at February 9, 2005 02:32 PM

The bottom of the list? David Wells sounds about right.

Posted by: sabernar at February 9, 2005 03:56 PM

Seems like a lot of A's and Royals near the bottom. Seeing guys from the same team together may be a bit of a red flag on the baseline assumptions.

The old and fat guys all bunched up low on the list suggests you are onto something, though.

Posted by: Crank at February 9, 2005 04:25 PM

Interesting that three of the top nine are starters for the White Sox. I wonder if they train differently.

Posted by: Peder at February 9, 2005 07:37 PM

This is the first time I've ever seen pitchers looked at this way. I wonder how much of DIPS variation could be due to the pitchers own fielding ability?

If one team has a lot of pitchers at the bottom, it could be that the organization puts greater emphasis on follow through (maybe to reduce injuries) than to ending up in proper fielding position.

Posted by: rallymonkey at February 10, 2005 01:09 PM