March 01, 2005
Ordering the Twins
Batgirl takes a look at the proposed Twins lineup today. Gardenhire has a perfect left-right balance in the order, with Mauer batting 2nd and Hunter batting 3rd. I like the idea of Mauer in the two spot, but I think the order would work better if Ron swapped Hunter and Ford in the three and five slots. They have about the same amount of power, but Ford does a better job of getting on base. The third spot is still at the beginning of the offense, where OBA is more important. Hunter's, a hacker who has power, is better off finishing the offensive cycle.
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Posted by David Pinto at
11:40 AM
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Strategy
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TrackBack (0)
Um, do they know Torri Hunter is a .319/.459 hitter? No way in the world he should be anywhere near the #3 spot, with other fine bats on that team.
It sounds good to bat Mauer second and Lew Ford should definately be hitting third because of his OPS. But Ron Gardenhire is the the most stat savvy and he may sadly bat Hunter third.
Justin Morneau is definately hitting cleanup, right?
Dave, I disagree. As #5 hitter, Ford will lead off innings more frequently than Hunter, so you want the higher OBP there. By contrast, it's better to have a relatively higher batting average in the 3rd slot where the challenge is to drive runners in.
I believe it was Bill James who suggested that players with the highest OBP should not bat #3 as they lead off innings less than other slots in the order. He suggested that the best lineup is one where the prototypical #5 hitter (high slugging, low OBP) bats 3rd, and the typical #3 hitter (good all around) bats fifth.
It was indeed James - from the '88 Abstract:
> "The largest determination of how many runs are likely to be scored in an inning is whether or not the lead-off man reaches base. If the lead-off man reaches base, the number of runs that will probably be scored in an inning is about three times as high as if the lead-off man is put out. . .The one player who is least likely to lead off the second inning is the number-three hitter. . .Thus, the one player who is most likely to start a successful inning and the one player who is least likely to start the second inning are the same player.
"Further, the traditional baseball thinking puts in the fifth spot the slow-moving slugger with the low on-base percentage. . .Think about it. Who leads off the second inning most often? The first inning ends 1-2-3 a little less than 30 percent of the time. The most common lead-off man for the second inning is the fifth hitter -- the one player in all the lineup least suited to be a lead-off hitter!"
