March 07, 2005
The $300,000 Solution
Here's another in a continuing series of If You Have a Problem at First Base, There's an Easy Solution series. Walter Young is a big slugger in the Orioles system (formerly in the Pirates system). He's 25, so he's past the point of being a prospect. The Orioles could have brought him up last year for the league minimum; instead, they spent four million on Palmeiro.
In the 1985 Bill James Baseball Handbook, major league equlivancies are introduced using that method with a slight modification in the adjustment for competition from .82 to .81, here's how Walter Young's numbers look compared to Palmeiro.
2004 | Young's MLE | Palmeiro Actual |
AB | 482 | 550 |
Hits | 128 | 142 |
Doubles | 24 | 29 |
Triples | 0 | 0 |
Home Runs | 32 | 23 |
BB | 42 | 86 |
K | 143 | 61 |
Batting Avg | .266 | .258 |
OBA | .324 (approx.) | .359 |
Slug. | .515 | .436 |
OPS | .839 | .795 |
Young's OBA wouldn't be as good, but he makes up for it with his slugging percentage. If nothing else, it's pretty clear that Palmeiro wasn't worth 13 times the money. The cheap solution eluded the Orioles. And with Palmeiro back for another year, the mistake is repeated.
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Posted by David Pinto at
09:01 AM
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Sluggers
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TrackBack (1)
And not only would Young probably put up better numbers AND be cheaper, but the odds are that Young would have increased production in his next pro year, while Palmiero's numbers would decrease.
Young had 145 K and 47 BB in 486 AB for Bowie last year.
You claim that the MLE for that is 143 K and 42 BB in 482 AB.
Wow - the Orioles sure are stupid. They chose to go with the guy coming off a 117 OPS+ season in Texas instead of the one coming off an .810 OPS as a 23 year old in high-A ball . Furthermore, they don't seem to know that Eastern League pitchers are almost exactly as effective as American League ones. How pitiful.
Best of luck in your new career.