March 26, 2005
What was Wrong with the Old Stance?
I didn't realize that Ichiro Suzuki had changed his batting stance halfway through the season last year. With the new stance, he hit .429 after the break in 2004, raising questions as to whether he can hit .400 for a season. My feeling is that if he were more selective, he'd hit for a higher average.
Of course, feelings can be checked. BIS keeps track of location of pitches in the strikezone. So we can calculate Ichiro's average on balls in the strikezone vs. balls outside of the strikezone:
| Ichiro 2004 | In Strike Zone | Outside Strike Zone |
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| AB | 589 | 115 |
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| Hits | 228 | 34 |
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| Batting Avg. | .387 | .296 |
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This table indicates two things to me:
- Ichiro mostly puts balls in play that are in the strikezone. He doesn't put that many bad balls in play.
- He hits very well when putting bad balls in play, but no where near as well as when he waits for a pitch in the strike zone.
So I have no doubt that even better selectivity would improve Ichrio's average. If he was able to turn some of those bad ball AB into walks, the smaller batting average denominator would also help him achieve a .400 BA.
Update: I just wanted to check vs. someone with a reputation for having a good eye for the strikezone.
| Bonds 2004 | In Strike Zone | Outside Strike Zone |
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| AB | 333 | 40 |
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| Hits | 122 | 13 |
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| Batting Avg. | .366 | .325 |
|---|
Bonds had AB on balls out of the strike zone 11% of the time. Ichiro had AB on balls out of the strikezone 28% of the time.
Correction:: Fixed row names in tables.
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Posted by David Pinto at
04:08 PM
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TrackBack (0)
Nice job, David. I love it when you get the numbers to talk.
I think you should break it up further. I am curious to see Ichiro's BA for ball in strike zone vs. out of strike zone before he changed his stance, and after he changed his stance. Did his ability to hit balls out of the strike zone improve after he made the change? Or was it the same? What kind of change did his stance have on balls in the zone?
in addition to JC's comments about pre/post stance change, I also wonder how many of the outside strike zones resulted in Ks. Obviously, swinging and missing probably occurs more outside the strike zone, but I wonder if you eliminate his 60 or so strikeouts (most of which, presumably were outside the strike zone), what his batting average is.
in other words, though you say he hits very well when putting bad balls in play, his actual average on bad balls in play is more than .296. I'd like to know what that number is.
Of course, you can't really just separate the two because striking out less would be a beneficial thing. Still, it's a nice number to know, if only to explain how he gets hits. (if he's legging it out to get most of hits (though i'd read somewhere that his infield hits as a percentage of the total last year was actually the lowest of his four years here) then putting it in play (inside or outside the strike zone) is the only real goal for him. and that, though he says he doesn't, he might try specifically not striking out.
I think it is too simplistic to suggest Ichiro Suzuki would be a better hitter if he was more 'patient'. There is the possibility that by taking more pitches he'd be swinging less at strikes and find himself in a lot more 0-2, 1-2 counts where pitchers would then be able to force him into swinging at pitches out of the zone--the exact thing he'd be trying to avoid.
