Baseball Musings: Changing Times?

March 28, 2005

Changing Times?

Jayson Stark tries to look into the future to see how the war on steroids will effect performance on the field. I thought this was interesting:

Cashman says he believes steroid use is currently so low – if not nearly nonexistent – that it's more of a worry in evaluating potential draft picks (who have never been tested) than it is in judging big leaguers. And he isn't alone in that belief.
A middle-market NL GM says his team has spent very little time worrying about this because "we're down to one percent that are using it. That's what they're telling us – that last year it was one percent."

Asked whether he believed that figure – since Congress and the public clearly don't – he replied: "I do."

True, it might be in his best interest to spin the best possible light on this issue. But this is one of baseball's most down-to-earth general managers – a man not normally known for spewing excessive baloney. And the fact is, a number of his fellow GMs clearly agree with him.

One AL GM says the state of the current scandal has been "overblown, without a doubt" – and "it's also revisionist history."

"The peak of usage, in my opinion, was five to seven years ago," he says. "And there has been a steady decline since then."

Many GMs believe the minor-league testing program has had a major impact – both on young players and on the fringe players who used to be especially tempted to use steroids. And now, the theory goes, the major-league program – and fear of public humiliation – has all but finished the job.

So don't look for a big change in overall offense. The change appears to be in individuals; we haven't seen a big home run season since Bonds hit 73. Testing at both the minor and major league level appears to be having the desired effect.

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Comments

I wish they would stop using the term "steroids" and start using the term "performance enhancing drugs". Maybe prepend with word "illegal" in front of it. Only stupid players will still be taking steroids, but I'm sure plenty of them are using IPEDs.

Posted by: sabernar at March 28, 2005 05:44 PM

Interesting read. Stark misrepresents one of his key points, however, when discussing the dearth of 50 home run seasons. The three hitters most often pointed to as responsible for the explosion of 50 HR seasons, McGwire, (Four 50+ HR seasons), Sosa, (Three 50+ HR seasons), and Bonds (ONE), all have had something stop them from continuing their assault of the mark. McGwire's knee problems caused him to retire, Sosa has has an assortment of injuries, and Bonds has been walked almost 600 times in the last three seasons while hitting 45 home runs each time.

Bonds would have easily hit 50+ in each of the last three seasons if the NL hadn't decided to collectively give up pitching to him. And therein lies the Bonds' dillemma that everyone conveniently ignores: He hasn't been injured, he hasn't missed any time, in fact, he has played as many games in the last three seasons as he has at any time in his career.

Could it be that Bonds has just gotten himself into tremendous shape, and not due to using steroids? After all, if Stark and his experts conclude that steroid users are more susceptible to injury, (which is why McGwire and Sosa and say, Giambi, slowed down) how did Bonds play in more games at 40 than in any seasons since 1997?

Posted by: John at March 28, 2005 07:22 PM

yeah, I have to agree with sabernar here,

The statement that steroid use is going down is true, but it really is just a front. I think I ranted about this earlier. The wave of the future is Growth hormones, elective surgery and other designer drugs. They are and will be taking stuff that is years ahead of our ability to test for it.

I think you are fooling yourself if you think that they are not using performance enhancing drugs that are, if not strictly illegal in baseball, are definitely illegal by IOC standards.

here is the rant I wrote in november:
http://www.engr.utk.edu/~tsaleh/rant.html

I pretty much stand by it.

In regards to the injury hype, may have been true for steroids, but I think Balco was probably offering designer drugs and doctors advice how to use it.

Only the idiots, or the ones who get ratted out (balco athletes) get caught.

Tarik

Posted by: Tarik Saleh at March 28, 2005 11:22 PM