Baseball Musings: NL East Preview

April 02, 2005

NL East Preview

I can see any of four teams winning this division, and I can see the Nationals finishing as high as third.

Predicted order of finish:

Florida Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
NY Mets
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals

You could randomize the first four teams and get as accurate a prediction. This is a close division.

This is a division with great heart of the order hitters. Abreu, Thome, Burrell on the Phillies; Beltran, Piazza, Floyd on the Mets; Cabrera, Lowell and Delgado on the Marlins. It's one of the reasons I moved the Braves down; they really didn't replace JD Drew. Mondesi and Jordan do nothing for me in the corners.

The Marlins pitching looks to me to be on par with the Braves, and their offense looks like it's on par with the Phillies. I believe that will lift them to the top of the division.

I can see a Joe Altobelli effect in Philadelphia. Joe replace the ultra-intense Earl Weaver and led the Orioles to a World Series in 1983. Charlie Manual is an easy going manager who's replacing the extremely intense Larry Bowa. The players may be relaxed enough to win the division.

The Mets should be greatly improved with Pedro and Beltran. The keys for them will be keeping Reyes, Floyd and Piazza healthy for the season. My suspicsion is that Pedro will respond well to Shea Stadium and will return to his Cy Young form, following in the footsteps of Roger Clemens.

I like the Nationals. They won't be the worst team in the majors. Frank Robinson knows what he's doing. They have three decent starters are are playing in a pitcher's park. It's too bad they won't be able to go after better players mid-years. With some luck, they won't finish last.

This should be a fun division. Since I'm not working and live in driving distance of three of the teams, maybe I'll do a northeast corridor tour of the NL East this summer.

Posted by David Pinto at 01:40 PM | Predictions | TrackBack (0)

Comments

I've written the Brave off before, now I'm going to pick them until somebody does knock them off.

Posted by: RobertJ at April 2, 2005 02:21 PM

I see the Mets taking the division and the Marlins a relatively close second.

I do agree that anything can happen with that top 4, although I disagree in that I think the Nationals are going to be the worst team in baseball this year. Some decent pop in that lineup, but a lot of question marks, too...

And their pitching? Eek. Gotta love Livan and Cordero, then it drops off from there.

Posted by: rob at April 2, 2005 03:06 PM

If you are coming to DC, shoot me an email and tell me when. I'm a relocated Twins fan now adopting the Nationals as my team. Maybe we can take in a game.

Posted by: John N. at April 2, 2005 06:12 PM

Earl Weaver too intsense? Jesus, the O's in '82 lost the division to the Brew crew on the season's last day; '81 was the strike, where they were two games back both times, '80 they won 100 games, but finished behind the Yanks, '79 they went to the series, etc.

Yeah, great analogy with Bowa. Clearly the O's under Earl played too lose and Altobelli saved the day.

Posted by: fwat at April 2, 2005 06:41 PM

I was just reading in a Bill James interview how Earl had to be the biggest ego in the clubhouse. I'd call that intense.

Posted by: David Pinto at April 2, 2005 07:02 PM

I think that Marlins will be first but very close will be Braves, and the Phillies, followed by Mets and Nationals. This is a close divission and anything can happen. anything can change in a couple of days.

Posted by: HIALEAH at April 2, 2005 08:09 PM

I think no one will win the division.

Posted by: sabernar at April 2, 2005 08:34 PM

I've picked the Braves every year for a decade, and will continue to do so.

And Weaver was a great manager, one of the first to understand how to set players up for success, and the value of "not getting out".

Meanwhile, Bowa is an idiot. No clue how to run a pitching staff, overreacts to tiny samples. Comparing those two is ridiculous.

Posted by: Al at April 2, 2005 09:00 PM

Braves are my sentimental choice, let me say up front. That said, Atlanta is a good bet for 14 straight for 3 reasons. One, the team has the best regular season manager in the NL. Two, it has one of the best pitching coaches in MLB. To see the impact of Leo, watch what Jared Wright and Paul Byrd do this year with other teams, if either can stay off the DL. Three, until Schuerholtz quits pulling rabbits out of hats, I'm a believer in his ability to shore up weak spots.

Prediction--Andy Marte will be in the line-up and making a positive difference by the allstar break. Unfortunately this will mean Chipper is back in left field. But the overall impact of Marte will be a big plus.

Posted by: high&tight at April 2, 2005 09:50 PM

Tommy Lasorda once said "contented cows give better milk and contented baseball players play better baseball. Larry Bowa was like the boss from hell we have all dealt with at some point. With him gone the team can now play baseball how it is meant. the Phillies will put up awesome offensive numbers, Burrell the biggest improvement. Too many pitching question marks for all of them to come up roses, but if they do the Phils could win it. They could also finish 4th.

Posted by: Brent at April 2, 2005 10:11 PM

being an old brooklyn Dodgers fan i know that hope springs eternal in the human breast. its great to see a revitalized NY Mets team. they ar elooking good. this is a good division and should be competive and very interesting.
GO METS!!!!

Posted by: Jerry Rabinowitz at April 3, 2005 01:07 AM

I'm looking no further than the Atlanta Braves to take the division title for a record 14th straight season. Cox and the Braves always get more than anyone expects out of players of all types including rookies, washed-up veterans and journeymen.

It will no doubt be a close finish and an exciting division to watch all season. We will all know 162 games from now. Play Ball!

Posted by: Roger Cunard at April 3, 2005 02:44 PM