Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
July 27, 2005
Happy Birthday, A-Rod!

Alex Rodriguez turns 30 today. It's a good point to look at his career and see how he's doing vs. the all-time greats. A-Rod has more home runs at age 30 than any other player. But it's more useful to look in terms of full seasons.

Seasonal age is the age a player is for most of the baseball season. The cut off is July 1. Whatever age you are before July 1 is your age for the year. By this measure, Alex is only 29. By seasonal age, here are the most home runs through age 29:

HR through seasonal age 29 (age before July 1)
First NameLast NameHome Runs
Alex Rodriguez 409
Ken Griffey Jr. 398
Jimmie Foxx 379
Mickey Mantle 374
Eddie Mathews 370
Hank Aaron 342
Mel Ott 342
Juan Gonzalez 340
Frank Robinson 324
Harmon Killebrew 297
Ralph Kiner 294
Vladimir Guerrero 291
Johnny Bench 287
Babe Ruth 284
Andruw Jones 282
Darryl Strawberry 280
Willie Mays 279

A-Rod and Vlad will continue to add to these totals this year, and Andruw Jones gets next year as well. That means that A-Rod is likely to have a 20 to 30 home run lead on Griffey at the end of the season. If Alex can end the season with 430 home runs, he'll have 11 more seasons to bring him through seasonal age 40. He'll have to average 30 home runs a season to break Aaron's record. Not easy, but certainly not impossible. Still when you look at the names on the list, it's amazing how many were ahead of Ruth at the same age and never caught the Babe.

Correction: I meant 30, not 33.


Posted by David Pinto at 04:16 PM | Sluggers
Comments

Looks like just Juan Gone and Darryl are the exceptions that missed the Hall.

Posted by: SGH at July 27, 2005 04:43 PM

But, should he average 40 homeruns for 4 years, he'll need to average only 24 for the remaining 7 to get past Hank. Much more doable, if we can assume he'll average 40 or more homeruns a season from 2006-2009

Posted by: JC at July 27, 2005 05:31 PM

It's interesting to see how many of these guys aged about 10 years overnight after turning 30. Hopefully Andruw Jones isn't like that (ditto for A-Rod, Vlad, obviously), because last year all the talk was how he was only 27-28 but his body may act older cause of the games he's already played.

Posted by: James at July 27, 2005 05:46 PM