August 04, 2005
Freakin' A's
Steven Levitt concedes he was wrong about the Athletics:
A question for the baseball experts: has any team in history ever been as bad as the A's were early in the season and done as well as they are doing now? It has been an amazing run.
It's a good question, one that I'll try to answer later today (at least, from 1974 on). There have been great comebacks, like the 1978 Yankees, the 1993 Braves and the 1995 Mariners, but those teams were all okay, got really hot and the team ahead of them got really cold.
One other thing. I'm sure the Athletics great run is over.
Economists, like everyone else, are much better at explaining the past then predicting the future. But, given the odds at Tradesports, I just put down a little money on the A's to win more than 88.6 games this year.
I can be accused of many things, but doggedly sticking to false conclusions in the face of new evidence is not one of my weaknesses.
This strikes me as a good example of a market top. Someone who was real skeptical of the team goes over to the other side. Maybe last night's loss by Oakland was the start of another horrid 20 games for the team.
"Maybe last night's loss by Oakland was the start of another horrid 20 games for the team"
I sure hope you're right. Incidentally, the 2002 Angels started the season 6-14. Of course, Oakland was dreadful for much longer in this season than that before turning it around...
Still, much as I dislike the A's, I'd still rather see them in the playoffs than the Yankees (though I'd prefer the Indians or Twins even more).
The Astros comeback seems to be nearly as impressive; they were 15 games under .500 on May 24 (A's were that far back on May 29), and now the Astros are only one game behind the A's.
Speaking of last night's game:
You can tell a big difference between the Athletics and Twins offenses by looking at the pitches thrown tonight. Harden had to throw 102 pitches to face 25 batters (6.2 innings), while Silva used just 88 to face 29 (8 innings). That's 4.08 pitches per batter for Harden, 3.03 for Silva. The selectivity of the Twins batters, and their ability to foul off pitches drove Rich from the game early.
;-)
It's too bad that Levitt has given up. He's a brilliant economist and it would have been interesting to see what he came up with if he'd actually spent some time on it. One of the things he mentioned in one post was that he felt there were a lot of preconceptions and biases that have become part of the SABR community and he was hoping to spend some time discussing this. Unfortunately he never got around to it. I'm sure there are plenty of biases within the SABR community (as there are everywhere else as well) and it would have helpful and refreshing to see an 'outsiders' take on it.
The A's play 3 against the Royals this weekend, so you'll have to wait until Tuesday for the A's to cool off.
Yeah, that's true, Hippster. Next week is another Angels-A's series. Here's hoping the Angels do better this time than the last series.
I keep thinking that the Astros have topped out, too. Then I look at the big three in the rotation and start to wonder.
It's not like the Astros face brutal competition in the wild card race. They've got easily the best run diff of any team in the race. Their closest pursuers right now, Washington and Philly, are actually under water on run diff. And that rotation looks deeper than any of the other contenders'.
Last night they started Astacio and got a shutout, for crying out loud. Hm, maybe that really does signify a market top.
I don;t think the A's have topped out. It's just a hunch. And they are one inning away from getting another win.
Yeah, they're up 5-2 in the ninth behind Zito's four-hitter. Actually, it's nice to see teams like the Astros and the A's get a little bit of attention, when the media aren't obsessing about steroids or the Red Sox and Yankees.
Street got one of those easy save opportunities, three-run lead and nobody on. But he wrapped it up in style, striking out the side. Oakland sure didn't look horrid today or in the entire series against Minnespta.
I'm having a speller's nightmare today. No, the AL didn't exapnd to a new state. It's still Minnesota.
And it's expand. I give up.
A month ago, I wasn't very confident the A's run would continue much longer. At the time, they were beating up on lousy teams. But what they've done since the beginning of July has been impressive. Aside from Detroit, who was just a game under .500 at the beginning of their series, every series the A's have played since July 1 has been against a team over .500. And their only blemish during that period was losing two of three in Toronto.
I don't expect them to continue to play .750 ball, but with 16 games left in August against KC, Bal, and Det, I wouldn't assume a big drop-off is eminent either.
seems to me that like EVERY year, someone explaining how/why billy beane sucks etc. and why the A's run is OVAH.
and every year, they win
so this year, i wanna see an As - Astros WS
with my stros winning, of course...
Great reading, keep up the great posts.
Peace, JiggaDigga