Baseball Musings: Pitchers and Luck

January 22, 2006

Pitchers and Luck

The Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) allows us to measure the contributions of a defense to the success of a pitcher, and the contribution of a pitcher to the sucess of the defense. We can see which pitchers had defenses turn more outs than expected (lucky pitchers), and see which pitchers were able to induce balls in the play that were easy to field. We'll start with how defense helped or hurt individual pitchers (minimum 300 balls in play in 2005).

Probabilistic Model of Range, Defense Behind Pitchers 2005. Unsmoothed Park Model. Best Defensive Support.
Pitcher	Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Rich Harden	Oak	341	247	228.27	0.724	0.669	0.05494
Jon Garland	CWS	706	514	477.48	0.728	0.676	0.05172
Claudio Vargas	Ari	362	257	238.87	0.710	0.660	0.05009
Roy Halladay	Tor	408	297	276.93	0.728	0.679	0.04918
Bruce Chen	Bal	594	431	403.52	0.726	0.679	0.04626
Roger Clemens	Hou	577	426	399.50	0.738	0.692	0.04593
Tim Wakefield	Bos	678	495	466.14	0.730	0.688	0.04256
Horacio Ramirez	Atl	667	479	451.43	0.718	0.677	0.04134
Kameron D Loe	Tex	307	218	205.50	0.710	0.669	0.04072
Barry Zito	Oak	654	486	460.30	0.743	0.704	0.03930
Wandy E Rodriguez	Hou	400	277	261.30	0.692	0.653	0.03924
Kirk Saarloos	Oak	553	392	370.70	0.709	0.670	0.03851
Pedro Martinez	NYM	564	422	400.38	0.748	0.710	0.03833
Brett Myers	Phi	587	418	396.01	0.712	0.675	0.03745
Vicente Padilla	Phi	447	315	298.28	0.705	0.667	0.03740
Carlos Zambrano	ChC	592	433	411.41	0.731	0.695	0.03646
Mark Mulder	StL	659	457	433.24	0.693	0.657	0.03605
Jorge Sosa	Atl	416	300	285.02	0.721	0.685	0.03600
Andy Pettitte	Hou	643	463	440.27	0.720	0.685	0.03535
Chris Carpenter	StL	667	476	452.75	0.714	0.679	0.03485
Dave T Bush	Tor	438	313	298.02	0.715	0.680	0.03421
Jose Contreras	CWS	595	436	416.49	0.733	0.700	0.03279
John Smoltz	Atl	690	490	467.42	0.710	0.677	0.03272
Jason Jennings	Col	397	271	258.02	0.683	0.650	0.03269
Kirk Rueter	SF	404	279	266.38	0.691	0.659	0.03123
Joe M Blanton	Oak	624	462	442.80	0.740	0.710	0.03076
Jon Lieber	Phi	684	485	464.49	0.709	0.679	0.02998
Mark Prior	ChC	425	297	284.67	0.699	0.670	0.02901
Brandon Backe	Hou	465	328	314.65	0.705	0.677	0.02871
Carlos Silva	Min	641	445	427.56	0.694	0.667	0.02720
Scott Elarton	Cle	585	418	402.32	0.715	0.688	0.02680
Casey Fossum	TB	498	338	324.83	0.679	0.652	0.02644
D.J. Carrasco	KC	394	270	259.62	0.685	0.659	0.02635
Jason Marquis	StL	664	477	459.60	0.718	0.692	0.02620
Paul Byrd	LAA	682	481	463.20	0.705	0.679	0.02609
Freddy Garcia	CWS	708	501	482.60	0.708	0.682	0.02599
Cliff Lee	Cle	621	442	426.01	0.712	0.686	0.02574
Javier Vazquez	Ari	626	430	414.46	0.687	0.662	0.02482
Kenny Rogers	Tex	665	465	448.78	0.699	0.675	0.02440
C.C. Sabathia	Cle	574	403	389.06	0.702	0.678	0.02429
Jeff Weaver	LAD	677	484	467.62	0.715	0.691	0.02420
Jake Westbrook	Cle	693	479	462.50	0.691	0.667	0.02381
Ted Lilly	Tor	386	271	261.83	0.702	0.678	0.02376
Danny Haren	Oak	649	453	437.68	0.698	0.674	0.02361
Jarrod Washburn	LAA	567	396	383.49	0.698	0.676	0.02206
Matt Morris	StL	633	434	420.28	0.686	0.664	0.02167
Seth McClung	TB	319	226	219.17	0.708	0.687	0.02141
Kevin Millwood	Cle	576	400	387.72	0.694	0.673	0.02133
Jerome Williams	ChC	334	243	235.90	0.728	0.706	0.02126
Ervin R Santana	LAA	412	287	278.25	0.697	0.675	0.02123
Shawn Estes	Ari	408	285	276.43	0.699	0.678	0.02101
Greg Maddux	ChC	728	505	489.74	0.694	0.673	0.02096
Kip Wells	Pit	562	386	374.28	0.687	0.666	0.02085
Cory Lidle	Phi	607	403	390.49	0.664	0.643	0.02062
Johan Santana	Min	604	438	425.63	0.725	0.705	0.02047
Bartolo Colon	LAA	678	481	467.31	0.709	0.689	0.02019
Tim Hudson	Atl	608	425	412.90	0.699	0.679	0.01991
Dave Williams	Pit	426	303	294.54	0.711	0.691	0.01985
Nate Robertson	Det	624	436	423.62	0.699	0.679	0.01985
Jason Johnson	Det	718	499	484.83	0.695	0.675	0.01973
Jamie Moyer	Sea	683	473	459.72	0.693	0.673	0.01944
Tony Armas Jr.	Was	318	232	225.90	0.730	0.710	0.01918
Victor Santos	Mil	466	323	314.10	0.693	0.674	0.01911
Brandon Webb	Ari	689	470	456.91	0.682	0.663	0.01900
Gustavo G Chacin	Tor	652	449	437.03	0.689	0.670	0.01835
Matt Clement	Bos	582	400	389.36	0.687	0.669	0.01829
John Thomson	Atl	330	218	212.09	0.661	0.643	0.01791
Randy Johnson	NYY	618	432	421.36	0.699	0.682	0.01722
Josh Fogg	Pit	571	394	384.25	0.690	0.673	0.01707
Brad Radke	Min	651	462	450.96	0.710	0.693	0.01696
Scott E Kazmir	TB	522	356	347.31	0.682	0.665	0.01666
Jake Peavy	SD	521	371	362.45	0.712	0.696	0.01641
Dontrelle Willis	Fla	716	505	493.58	0.705	0.689	0.01596
David Wells	Bos	622	413	403.21	0.664	0.648	0.01574
Brett Tomko	SF	625	437	427.24	0.699	0.684	0.01562
Ben Sheets	Mil	446	318	311.26	0.713	0.698	0.01511
Josh Beckett	Fla	484	340	332.94	0.702	0.688	0.01458
Mark Hendrickson	TB	633	418	409.04	0.660	0.646	0.01415
Kris Benson	NYM	565	409	401.26	0.724	0.710	0.01370
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	392	279	273.77	0.712	0.698	0.01334
Chris Capuano	Mil	639	442	433.56	0.692	0.679	0.01320
Joe Mays	Min	564	377	369.64	0.668	0.655	0.01305
Noah Lowry	SF	599	418	410.44	0.698	0.685	0.01263
Joel Pineiro	Sea	629	426	418.23	0.677	0.665	0.01235
Roy Oswalt	Hou	744	509	500.00	0.684	0.672	0.01210
Livan Hernandez	Was	796	545	535.54	0.685	0.673	0.01189
Orlando Hernandez	CWS	397	274	269.42	0.690	0.679	0.01155
Jose Lima	KC	597	401	394.25	0.672	0.660	0.01131
Brad M Hennessey	SF	386	272	267.85	0.705	0.694	0.01075
Runelvys Hernandez	KC	523	364	358.53	0.696	0.686	0.01046
Bronson Arroyo	Bos	688	489	481.93	0.711	0.700	0.01028
Kyle Lohse	Min	607	414	408.12	0.682	0.672	0.00969
Brian Lawrence	SD	656	454	448.43	0.692	0.684	0.00850
Woody Williams	SD	513	359	354.67	0.700	0.691	0.00844
Russ Ortiz	Ari	418	283	279.64	0.677	0.669	0.00804
Tom Glavine	NYM	720	496	490.23	0.689	0.681	0.00801
Ramon Ortiz	Cin	567	390	385.46	0.688	0.680	0.00801
Rodrigo Lopez	Bal	702	482	476.50	0.687	0.679	0.00783
Erik Bedard	Bal	409	276	272.81	0.675	0.667	0.00780
Mike Wood	KC	382	260	257.48	0.681	0.674	0.00659
John Patterson	Was	543	388	385.11	0.715	0.709	0.00533
Gil Meche	Sea	462	320	317.70	0.693	0.688	0.00498
Doug Waechter	TB	533	361	358.58	0.677	0.673	0.00455
Mike Maroth	Det	683	472	468.90	0.691	0.687	0.00454
Jeff W Francis	Col	594	386	383.33	0.650	0.645	0.00450
Jeff Suppan	StL	626	432	429.24	0.690	0.686	0.00441
Doug Davis	Mil	615	430	427.49	0.699	0.695	0.00408
Daniel A Cabrera	Bal	447	312	310.20	0.698	0.694	0.00403
Aaron Sele	Sea	406	274	272.41	0.675	0.671	0.00392
Mark Redman	Pit	574	397	394.86	0.692	0.688	0.00372
Aaron Cook	Col	307	208	206.91	0.678	0.674	0.00356
Brandon Claussen	Cin	522	363	361.32	0.695	0.692	0.00322
Odalis Perez	LAD	338	235	234.04	0.695	0.692	0.00284
Mark Buehrle	CWS	758	521	520.04	0.687	0.686	0.00127
Brad Penny	LAD	555	383	382.32	0.690	0.689	0.00123
Brian Moehler	Fla	538	355	354.45	0.660	0.659	0.00102
Derek Lowe	LAD	700	489	488.42	0.699	0.698	0.00083
Chan Ho Park	Tex	354	228	227.98	0.644	0.644	0.00005
A.J. Burnett	Fla	577	391	391.17	0.678	0.678	-0.00029
Brad A Halsey	Ari	550	370	370.21	0.673	0.673	-0.00038
Byung-Hyun Kim	Col	450	304	304.59	0.676	0.677	-0.00132
Tomo Ohka	Mil	416	280	280.85	0.673	0.675	-0.00205
Ryan Franklin	Sea	642	453	454.56	0.706	0.708	-0.00243
Josh Towers	Tor	706	477	480.37	0.676	0.680	-0.00477
Jeremy Bonderman	Det	574	389	392.27	0.678	0.683	-0.00571
Aaron Harang	Cin	643	441	445.17	0.686	0.692	-0.00649
John Lackey	LAA	598	397	401.04	0.664	0.671	-0.00676
D.J. Houlton	LAD	407	279	281.98	0.686	0.693	-0.00732
Zack Z Greinke	KC	625	407	411.96	0.651	0.659	-0.00794
Sidney Ponson	Bal	460	297	300.83	0.646	0.654	-0.00833
Adam Eaton	SD	405	271	274.55	0.669	0.678	-0.00876
Jason Schmidt	SF	485	333	337.52	0.687	0.696	-0.00932
Jamey Wright	Col	563	370	375.61	0.657	0.667	-0.00996
Glendon Rusch	ChC	476	305	310.14	0.641	0.652	-0.01081
Victor Zambrano	NYM	532	361	368.64	0.679	0.693	-0.01436
Hideo Nomo	TB	344	232	238.13	0.674	0.692	-0.01781
Mike Mussina	NYY	545	362	371.75	0.664	0.682	-0.01789
Chris Young	Tex	492	342	351.47	0.695	0.714	-0.01926
Eric Milton	Cin	633	427	441.81	0.675	0.698	-0.02339
Joe Kennedy	Col	327	207	215.86	0.633	0.660	-0.02708
Esteban Loaiza	Was	661	444	462.19	0.672	0.699	-0.02751
Carl Pavano	NYY	343	225	235.27	0.656	0.686	-0.02996

Roger Clemens wishes he got that type of support from his offense. In general, it's good to pitch for Houston or Oakland. At the other end of the scale you have Eric Milton. Not only did he give up a ton of home runs, but his defense added to his trouble by not letting more than their share of batted balls go for hits. Mike Mussina was down at the unlucky end. So it wasn't my imagination that every ball put in play against him seemed to find a hole for a hit.

Now for a look at how pitchers helped or hurt their defenses:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Defense Behind Pitchers 2005. Unsmoothed Park Model. Easiest to Field.
Pitcher	Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Chris Young	Tex	492	342	351.47	0.695	0.714	-0.01926
Tony Armas Jr.	Was	318	232	225.90	0.730	0.710	0.01918
Kris Benson	NYM	565	409	401.26	0.724	0.710	0.01370
Pedro Martinez	NYM	564	422	400.38	0.748	0.710	0.03833
Joe M Blanton	Oak	624	462	442.80	0.740	0.710	0.03076
John Patterson	Was	543	388	385.11	0.715	0.709	0.00533
Ryan Franklin	Sea	642	453	454.56	0.706	0.708	-0.00243
Jerome Williams	ChC	334	243	235.90	0.728	0.706	0.02126
Johan Santana	Min	604	438	425.63	0.725	0.705	0.02047
Barry Zito	Oak	654	486	460.30	0.743	0.704	0.03930
Bronson Arroyo	Bos	688	489	481.93	0.711	0.700	0.01028
Jose Contreras	CWS	595	436	416.49	0.733	0.700	0.03279
Esteban Loaiza	Was	661	444	462.19	0.672	0.699	-0.02751
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	392	279	273.77	0.712	0.698	0.01334
Eric Milton	Cin	633	427	441.81	0.675	0.698	-0.02339
Ben Sheets	Mil	446	318	311.26	0.713	0.698	0.01511
Derek Lowe	LAD	700	489	488.42	0.699	0.698	0.00083
Jason Schmidt	SF	485	333	337.52	0.687	0.696	-0.00932
Jake Peavy	SD	521	371	362.45	0.712	0.696	0.01641
Doug Davis	Mil	615	430	427.49	0.699	0.695	0.00408
Carlos Zambrano	ChC	592	433	411.41	0.731	0.695	0.03646
Daniel A Cabrera	Bal	447	312	310.20	0.698	0.694	0.00403
Brad M Hennessey	SF	386	272	267.85	0.705	0.694	0.01075
Victor Zambrano	NYM	532	361	368.64	0.679	0.693	-0.01436
D.J. Houlton	LAD	407	279	281.98	0.686	0.693	-0.00732
Brad Radke	Min	651	462	450.96	0.710	0.693	0.01696
Odalis Perez	LAD	338	235	234.04	0.695	0.692	0.00284
Roger Clemens	Hou	577	426	399.50	0.738	0.692	0.04593
Aaron Harang	Cin	643	441	445.17	0.686	0.692	-0.00649
Hideo Nomo	TB	344	232	238.13	0.674	0.692	-0.01781
Brandon Claussen	Cin	522	363	361.32	0.695	0.692	0.00322
Jason Marquis	StL	664	477	459.60	0.718	0.692	0.02620
Dave Williams	Pit	426	303	294.54	0.711	0.691	0.01985
Woody Williams	SD	513	359	354.67	0.700	0.691	0.00844
Jeff Weaver	LAD	677	484	467.62	0.715	0.691	0.02420
Dontrelle Willis	Fla	716	505	493.58	0.705	0.689	0.01596
Bartolo Colon	LAA	678	481	467.31	0.709	0.689	0.02019
Brad Penny	LAD	555	383	382.32	0.690	0.689	0.00123
Mark Redman	Pit	574	397	394.86	0.692	0.688	0.00372
Josh Beckett	Fla	484	340	332.94	0.702	0.688	0.01458
Scott Elarton	Cle	585	418	402.32	0.715	0.688	0.02680
Gil Meche	Sea	462	320	317.70	0.693	0.688	0.00498
Tim Wakefield	Bos	678	495	466.14	0.730	0.688	0.04256
Seth McClung	TB	319	226	219.17	0.708	0.687	0.02141
Mike Maroth	Det	683	472	468.90	0.691	0.687	0.00454
Mark Buehrle	CWS	758	521	520.04	0.687	0.686	0.00127
Cliff Lee	Cle	621	442	426.01	0.712	0.686	0.02574
Carl Pavano	NYY	343	225	235.27	0.656	0.686	-0.02996
Jeff Suppan	StL	626	432	429.24	0.690	0.686	0.00441
Runelvys Hernandez	KC	523	364	358.53	0.696	0.686	0.01046
Noah Lowry	SF	599	418	410.44	0.698	0.685	0.01263
Jorge Sosa	Atl	416	300	285.02	0.721	0.685	0.03600
Andy Pettitte	Hou	643	463	440.27	0.720	0.685	0.03535
Brett Tomko	SF	625	437	427.24	0.699	0.684	0.01562
Brian Lawrence	SD	656	454	448.43	0.692	0.684	0.00850
Jeremy Bonderman	Det	574	389	392.27	0.678	0.683	-0.00571
Mike Mussina	NYY	545	362	371.75	0.664	0.682	-0.01789
Randy Johnson	NYY	618	432	421.36	0.699	0.682	0.01722
Freddy Garcia	CWS	708	501	482.60	0.708	0.682	0.02599
Tom Glavine	NYM	720	496	490.23	0.689	0.681	0.00801
Josh Towers	Tor	706	477	480.37	0.676	0.680	-0.00477
Dave T Bush	Tor	438	313	298.02	0.715	0.680	0.03421
Ramon Ortiz	Cin	567	390	385.46	0.688	0.680	0.00801
Bruce Chen	Bal	594	431	403.52	0.726	0.679	0.04626
Paul Byrd	LAA	682	481	463.20	0.705	0.679	0.02609
Tim Hudson	Atl	608	425	412.90	0.699	0.679	0.01991
Jon Lieber	Phi	684	485	464.49	0.709	0.679	0.02998
Nate Robertson	Det	624	436	423.62	0.699	0.679	0.01985
Chris Carpenter	StL	667	476	452.75	0.714	0.679	0.03485
Rodrigo Lopez	Bal	702	482	476.50	0.687	0.679	0.00783
Roy Halladay	Tor	408	297	276.93	0.728	0.679	0.04918
Orlando Hernandez	CWS	397	274	269.42	0.690	0.679	0.01155
Chris Capuano	Mil	639	442	433.56	0.692	0.679	0.01320
Ted Lilly	Tor	386	271	261.83	0.702	0.678	0.02376
A.J. Burnett	Fla	577	391	391.17	0.678	0.678	-0.00029
Adam Eaton	SD	405	271	274.55	0.669	0.678	-0.00876
C.C. Sabathia	Cle	574	403	389.06	0.702	0.678	0.02429
Shawn Estes	Ari	408	285	276.43	0.699	0.678	0.02101
John Smoltz	Atl	690	490	467.42	0.710	0.677	0.03272
Byung-Hyun Kim	Col	450	304	304.59	0.676	0.677	-0.00132
Horacio Ramirez	Atl	667	479	451.43	0.718	0.677	0.04134
Brandon Backe	Hou	465	328	314.65	0.705	0.677	0.02871
Jarrod Washburn	LAA	567	396	383.49	0.698	0.676	0.02206
Jon Garland	CWS	706	514	477.48	0.728	0.676	0.05172
Ervin R Santana	LAA	412	287	278.25	0.697	0.675	0.02123
Jason Johnson	Det	718	499	484.83	0.695	0.675	0.01973
Tomo Ohka	Mil	416	280	280.85	0.673	0.675	-0.00205
Kenny Rogers	Tex	665	465	448.78	0.699	0.675	0.02440
Brett Myers	Phi	587	418	396.01	0.712	0.675	0.03745
Danny Haren	Oak	649	453	437.68	0.698	0.674	0.02361
Mike Wood	KC	382	260	257.48	0.681	0.674	0.00659
Victor Santos	Mil	466	323	314.10	0.693	0.674	0.01911
Aaron Cook	Col	307	208	206.91	0.678	0.674	0.00356
Kevin Millwood	Cle	576	400	387.72	0.694	0.673	0.02133
Brad A Halsey	Ari	550	370	370.21	0.673	0.673	-0.00038
Jamie Moyer	Sea	683	473	459.72	0.693	0.673	0.01944
Josh Fogg	Pit	571	394	384.25	0.690	0.673	0.01707
Livan Hernandez	Was	796	545	535.54	0.685	0.673	0.01189
Doug Waechter	TB	533	361	358.58	0.677	0.673	0.00455
Greg Maddux	ChC	728	505	489.74	0.694	0.673	0.02096
Kyle Lohse	Min	607	414	408.12	0.682	0.672	0.00969
Roy Oswalt	Hou	744	509	500.00	0.684	0.672	0.01210
Aaron Sele	Sea	406	274	272.41	0.675	0.671	0.00392
John Lackey	LAA	598	397	401.04	0.664	0.671	-0.00676
Kirk Saarloos	Oak	553	392	370.70	0.709	0.670	0.03851
Gustavo G Chacin	Tor	652	449	437.03	0.689	0.670	0.01835
Mark Prior	ChC	425	297	284.67	0.699	0.670	0.02901
Rich Harden	Oak	341	247	228.27	0.724	0.669	0.05494
Kameron D Loe	Tex	307	218	205.50	0.710	0.669	0.04072
Matt Clement	Bos	582	400	389.36	0.687	0.669	0.01829
Russ Ortiz	Ari	418	283	279.64	0.677	0.669	0.00804
Jake Westbrook	Cle	693	479	462.50	0.691	0.667	0.02381
Vicente Padilla	Phi	447	315	298.28	0.705	0.667	0.03740
Jamey Wright	Col	563	370	375.61	0.657	0.667	-0.00996
Carlos Silva	Min	641	445	427.56	0.694	0.667	0.02720
Erik Bedard	Bal	409	276	272.81	0.675	0.667	0.00780
Kip Wells	Pit	562	386	374.28	0.687	0.666	0.02085
Scott E Kazmir	TB	522	356	347.31	0.682	0.665	0.01666
Joel Pineiro	Sea	629	426	418.23	0.677	0.665	0.01235
Matt Morris	StL	633	434	420.28	0.686	0.664	0.02167
Brandon Webb	Ari	689	470	456.91	0.682	0.663	0.01900
Javier Vazquez	Ari	626	430	414.46	0.687	0.662	0.02482
Jose Lima	KC	597	401	394.25	0.672	0.660	0.01131
Joe Kennedy	Col	327	207	215.86	0.633	0.660	-0.02708
Claudio Vargas	Ari	362	257	238.87	0.710	0.660	0.05009
Kirk Rueter	SF	404	279	266.38	0.691	0.659	0.03123
Zack Z Greinke	KC	625	407	411.96	0.651	0.659	-0.00794
D.J. Carrasco	KC	394	270	259.62	0.685	0.659	0.02635
Brian Moehler	Fla	538	355	354.45	0.660	0.659	0.00102
Mark Mulder	StL	659	457	433.24	0.693	0.657	0.03605
Joe Mays	Min	564	377	369.64	0.668	0.655	0.01305
Sidney Ponson	Bal	460	297	300.83	0.646	0.654	-0.00833
Wandy E Rodriguez	Hou	400	277	261.30	0.692	0.653	0.03924
Casey Fossum	TB	498	338	324.83	0.679	0.652	0.02644
Glendon Rusch	ChC	476	305	310.14	0.641	0.652	-0.01081
Jason Jennings	Col	397	271	258.02	0.683	0.650	0.03269
David Wells	Bos	622	413	403.21	0.664	0.648	0.01574
Mark Hendrickson	TB	633	418	409.04	0.660	0.646	0.01415
Jeff W Francis	Col	594	386	383.33	0.650	0.645	0.00450
Chan Ho Park	Tex	354	228	227.98	0.644	0.644	0.00005
Cory Lidle	Phi	607	403	390.49	0.664	0.643	0.02062
John Thomson	Atl	330	218	212.09	0.661	0.643	0.01791

I wonder if San Diego knew about this when they traded for Chris Young. They probably didn't if they were willing to take Chan Ho Park. It's a good thing John Thomson and Corey Lidle had good defenses backing them up.

Posted by David Pinto at 09:34 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Very interesting. It has me wondering about San Diego's defense. The outfield defense should be pretty good with Cameron, Roberts and Giles. Just going from memory I think Klesko is an okay 1st baseman. The Barfield/Hill/Bellhorn/Young group isn't that great at second. I honestly have no idea how good Greene is at short. Castilla is a good third baseman. Mirabelli has been decent behind the plate but I'm not sure how much everyday duty will change that.

Question: Where can I look at the numbers behind this?

Posted by: JonWilliams at January 23, 2006 08:44 AM

I'll be publishing numbers for individual players as the week continues.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 23, 2006 10:15 AM

For these 142 pitchers, your overall predicted DER is .679, or a BABIP of .321. In fact, the DER for these pitchers was .695, which is consistent with past years. I think you have a problem with your model and/or your data. It just isn't plausible that the 2005 distribution of BIP "should" have producted a 25-point surge in BABIP this year, but this was coincidentally offset by an equal improvement in fielding to produce a stable DER.

Posted by: Guy at January 23, 2006 11:49 AM

zack grienke's middle initial is Z? Z.Z. Grienke? awesome!

Posted by: tony flynn at January 23, 2006 11:52 PM

Is it just me, or are there a lot of extreme flyballers (Chris Young, Pedro, Ryan Franklin) on the "easy to field" end and more groundballers on the other?

Flyballs (that stay in the park) being easier to field than grounders?

Posted by: Trev at January 25, 2006 01:03 PM

Fly balls *are* easier to field than groundballs. Out conversion rates for fly balls typically run 10-15% higher than ground balls.

Posted by: Mike Emeigh at January 25, 2006 03:56 PM

From a quick glance at the breakdowns by ball type that David provided elsewhere, compared to BIP data that I have which was collated from MLB.com, it appears that the issue is the distinction between fly balls and line drives. The BIS data that David is using appears to have about 2000 more line drives, and about 2000 fewer fly balls, than the MLB.com data. That would make a tremendous difference in the model outcomes, needless to say.

Posted by: Mike Emeigh at January 25, 2006 04:01 PM

What major league pitcher started his career with a 16 game losing streak??

Posted by: Alicia at March 27, 2008 12:06 AM