Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Shortstops and Grounders, Revised

January 25, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Shortstops and Grounders, Revised

The tables here correct the tables presented in this post. The minimum is 500 balls in play while in the field.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2005, Original Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders + Bunt Grounders)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Omar Infante	567	131	125.07	0.231	0.221	0.01046
Clint Barmes	1042	211	200.24	0.202	0.192	0.01033
Jason A Bartlett	827	205	197.36	0.248	0.239	0.00924
Rafael Furcal	2050	437	418.74	0.213	0.204	0.00891
John McDonald	611	135	129.68	0.221	0.212	0.00870
Juan Castro	891	201	194.14	0.226	0.218	0.00770
Carlos Guillen	950	203	197.69	0.214	0.208	0.00559
Adam Everett	1855	373	365.12	0.201	0.197	0.00425
Bobby Crosby	999	221	216.87	0.221	0.217	0.00414
Julio Lugo	1813	372	365.06	0.205	0.201	0.00383
Neifi Perez	1547	339	333.43	0.219	0.216	0.00360
Wilson Valdez	535	104	103.25	0.194	0.193	0.00139
Jack Wilson	1991	439	439.30	0.220	0.221	-0.00015
Jimmy Rollins	1914	365	365.63	0.191	0.191	-0.00033
Cesar Izturis	1464	281	282.54	0.192	0.193	-0.00105
Yuniesky Betancourt	637	114	115.77	0.179	0.182	-0.00278
Alex Gonzalez	1608	315	319.65	0.196	0.199	-0.00289
Miguel Tejada	2065	417	425.11	0.202	0.206	-0.00393
Khalil Greene	1417	280	285.95	0.198	0.202	-0.00420
Edgar Renteria	1858	344	353.88	0.185	0.190	-0.00532
David Eckstein	2209	453	466.16	0.205	0.211	-0.00596
J.J. Hardy	1253	240	248.74	0.192	0.199	-0.00698
Omar Vizquel	1829	382	396.82	0.209	0.217	-0.00810
Bill Hall	630	138	143.11	0.219	0.227	-0.00811
Cristian Guzman	1585	278	291.23	0.175	0.184	-0.00835
Orlando Cabrera	1642	314	328.01	0.191	0.200	-0.00853
Royce Clayton	1845	354	373.81	0.192	0.203	-0.01074
Derek Jeter	2088	399	425.52	0.191	0.204	-0.01270
Marco Scutaro	921	189	200.96	0.205	0.218	-0.01298
Juan Uribe	1820	363	387.20	0.199	0.213	-0.01330
Oscar M Robles	598	116	125.03	0.194	0.209	-0.01510
Felipe Lopez	1707	322	348.31	0.189	0.204	-0.01541
Angel Berroa	2088	379	411.17	0.182	0.197	-0.01541
Jose Reyes	2032	357	389.20	0.176	0.192	-0.01585
Russ M Adams	1646	280	308.72	0.170	0.188	-0.01745
Jhonny Peralta	1729	352	387.25	0.204	0.224	-0.02039
Michael Young	2139	371	417.67	0.173	0.195	-0.02182
Mike Morse	603	100	113.99	0.166	0.189	-0.02320

Probabilistic Model of Range, Shortstops, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model, Groundballs Only (Grounders + Bunt Grounders)
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Jason A Bartlett	827	205	193.52	0.248	0.234	0.01388
Omar Infante	567	131	124.74	0.231	0.220	0.01104
Clint Barmes	1042	211	199.69	0.202	0.192	0.01085
John McDonald	611	135	128.52	0.221	0.210	0.01061
Rafael Furcal	2050	437	417.08	0.213	0.203	0.00972
Juan Castro	891	201	193.57	0.226	0.217	0.00834
Julio Lugo	1813	372	359.76	0.205	0.198	0.00675
Bobby Crosby	999	221	214.88	0.221	0.215	0.00612
Adam Everett	1855	373	362.23	0.201	0.195	0.00581
Neifi Perez	1547	339	330.04	0.219	0.213	0.00579
Carlos Guillen	950	203	197.88	0.214	0.208	0.00539
Jimmy Rollins	1914	365	359.98	0.191	0.188	0.00262
Cesar Izturis	1464	281	279.05	0.192	0.191	0.00133
Jack Wilson	1991	439	436.69	0.220	0.219	0.00116
Wilson Valdez	535	104	104.31	0.194	0.195	-0.00058
Alex Gonzalez	1608	315	316.50	0.196	0.197	-0.00093
Edgar Renteria	1858	344	346.50	0.185	0.186	-0.00135
Yuniesky Betancourt	637	114	115.43	0.179	0.181	-0.00225
Miguel Tejada	2065	417	422.26	0.202	0.204	-0.00255
Khalil Greene	1417	280	284.17	0.198	0.201	-0.00294
David Eckstein	2209	453	459.82	0.205	0.208	-0.00309
Bill Hall	630	138	140.51	0.219	0.223	-0.00399
Cristian Guzman	1585	278	286.55	0.175	0.181	-0.00540
J.J. Hardy	1253	240	247.55	0.192	0.198	-0.00603
Orlando Cabrera	1642	314	327.24	0.191	0.199	-0.00807
Omar Vizquel	1829	382	399.22	0.209	0.218	-0.00942
Marco Scutaro	921	189	198.83	0.205	0.216	-0.01067
Juan Uribe	1820	363	383.41	0.199	0.211	-0.01122
Royce Clayton	1845	354	376.96	0.192	0.204	-0.01244
Jose Reyes	2032	357	384.22	0.176	0.189	-0.01340
Derek Jeter	2088	399	428.51	0.191	0.205	-0.01413
Angel Berroa	2088	379	408.49	0.182	0.196	-0.01413
Felipe Lopez	1707	322	348.13	0.189	0.204	-0.01531
Russ M Adams	1646	280	307.02	0.170	0.187	-0.01641
Jhonny Peralta	1729	352	381.59	0.204	0.221	-0.01712
Oscar M Robles	598	116	126.43	0.194	0.211	-0.01744
Michael Young	2139	371	412.43	0.173	0.193	-0.01937
Mike Morse	603	100	112.22	0.166	0.186	-0.02027

To comment on a comment I've seen, I'm presenting infielder just on ground balls to show how we classically think of infielders and range; going after ground balls. For example, Jose Reyes ranks better at going after ground balls than he does overall. You also see Furcal doing very well on grounders. If you primarily think of a shortstop as a ground ball vacuum cleaner, this gives one a better picture of that ability.

Posted by David Pinto at 07:43 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Groundball Hoover. Nice imagery there.

Welp, I'm still perplexed that Reyes scores as poorly as he does given the anectdotal evidence.

There's an interesting stat in the Bill James 2006 book called "Pivot %". I don't have it in front of me, but essence of the stat is the % of double plays turned when that player was the pivot man on 2nd base. I guess it's meant to give an impression of how quick feet are around the base and a read on the arm strength/accuracy. In that stat, Hosey was among the league leaders. Go figure.

Posted by: bmc at January 26, 2006 02:08 PM