Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
January 26, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Centerfielders

Without much further ado, the centerfielders.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2005, Original Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Jason Ellison1867197 178.25 0.106 0.095 0.01004
Tike Redman1613158 143.70 0.098 0.089 0.00887
Joey R Gathright1587181 167.23 0.114 0.105 0.00868
Curtis Granderson1044119 110.91 0.114 0.106 0.00775
Andruw Jones4309365 337.56 0.085 0.078 0.00637
Jason Michaels1621161 150.73 0.099 0.093 0.00634
Jim Edmonds3538319 297.13 0.090 0.084 0.00618
Aaron Rowand4128388 362.99 0.094 0.088 0.00606
Gary Matthews Jr.2822258 242.31 0.091 0.086 0.00556
Jerry Hairston110090 84.03 0.082 0.076 0.00542
Brady Clark3765399 380.69 0.106 0.101 0.00486
Nook P Logan2730282 270.92 0.103 0.099 0.00406
Luis Matos3017299 286.93 0.099 0.095 0.00400
Corey Patterson2799240 232.53 0.086 0.083 0.00267
Willy Taveras3646332 322.83 0.091 0.089 0.00252
Carlos Beltran3967378 372.03 0.095 0.094 0.00151
Brad Wilkerson2414234 230.76 0.097 0.096 0.00134
Randy Winn1603184 182.71 0.115 0.114 0.00080
Grady Sizemore4136373 370.07 0.090 0.089 0.00071
Damon J Hollins2010198 197.37 0.099 0.098 0.00031
Laynce Nix1674160 159.88 0.096 0.096 0.00007
Jeremy T Reed3692384 384.13 0.104 0.104 -0.00003
Luis Terrero1310121 121.69 0.092 0.093 -0.00053
Torii Hunter2575218 220.35 0.085 0.086 -0.00091
Milton Bradley1969181 183.11 0.092 0.093 -0.00107
Vernon Wells4239351 356.22 0.083 0.084 -0.00123
Juan Pierre4171332 337.90 0.080 0.081 -0.00141
Johnny Damon3952396 402.01 0.100 0.102 -0.00152
David DeJesus3304306 313.16 0.093 0.095 -0.00217
Mark Kotsay3519299 306.87 0.085 0.087 -0.00224
Dave Roberts2715234 240.18 0.086 0.088 -0.00228
Kenny Lofton2167201 207.17 0.093 0.096 -0.00285
Chone Figgins1184131 134.46 0.111 0.114 -0.00292
Cory Sullivan1935172 179.74 0.089 0.093 -0.00400
Preston Wilson3362267 283.81 0.079 0.084 -0.00500
Steve Finley2691266 279.55 0.099 0.104 -0.00503
Lew Ford1677140 150.24 0.083 0.090 -0.00610
Jose Cruz131787 96.22 0.066 0.073 -0.00700
Bernie Williams2689226 245.61 0.084 0.091 -0.00729
Jason Repko112897 105.29 0.086 0.093 -0.00735
Ken Griffey Jr.3439286 321.33 0.083 0.093 -0.01027

Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2005, Smoothed Visiting Player Model
PlayerInPlayActual OutsPredicted OutsDERPredicted DERDifference
Jason Ellison1867197 176.89 0.106 0.095 0.01077
Joey R Gathright1587181 165.35 0.114 0.104 0.00986
Tike Redman1613158 142.11 0.098 0.088 0.00985
Andruw Jones4309365 330.56 0.085 0.077 0.00799
Curtis Granderson1044119 111.13 0.114 0.106 0.00753
Jim Edmonds3538319 292.73 0.090 0.083 0.00743
Aaron Rowand4128388 360.04 0.094 0.087 0.00677
Jason Michaels1621161 151.37 0.099 0.093 0.00594
Gary Matthews Jr.2822258 241.64 0.091 0.086 0.00580
Brady Clark3765399 378.87 0.106 0.101 0.00535
Luis Matos3017299 288.54 0.099 0.096 0.00347
Jerry Hairston110090 86.37 0.082 0.079 0.00330
Nook P Logan2730282 273.04 0.103 0.100 0.00328
Corey Patterson2799240 232.61 0.086 0.083 0.00264
Willy Taveras3646332 324.32 0.091 0.089 0.00211
Brad Wilkerson2414234 230.16 0.097 0.095 0.00159
Carlos Beltran3967378 372.21 0.095 0.094 0.00146
Randy Winn1603184 181.93 0.115 0.113 0.00129
Grady Sizemore4136373 368.15 0.090 0.089 0.00117
Laynce Nix1674160 158.40 0.096 0.095 0.00096
Damon J Hollins2010198 196.96 0.099 0.098 0.00052
Jeremy T Reed3692384 382.67 0.104 0.104 0.00036
Torii Hunter2575218 218.23 0.085 0.085 -0.00009
Vernon Wells4239351 355.19 0.083 0.084 -0.00099
Luis Terrero1310121 122.38 0.092 0.093 -0.00105
Johnny Damon3952396 401.06 0.100 0.101 -0.00128
Mark Kotsay3519299 303.73 0.085 0.086 -0.00134
Dave Roberts2715234 238.58 0.086 0.088 -0.00169
Juan Pierre4171332 339.18 0.080 0.081 -0.00172
Milton Bradley1969181 184.58 0.092 0.094 -0.00182
David DeJesus3304306 314.56 0.093 0.095 -0.00259
Chone Figgins1184131 134.10 0.111 0.113 -0.00262
Kenny Lofton2167201 206.75 0.093 0.095 -0.00265
Cory Sullivan1935172 180.98 0.089 0.094 -0.00464
Steve Finley2691266 279.04 0.099 0.104 -0.00485
Preston Wilson3362267 284.16 0.079 0.085 -0.00510
Lew Ford1677140 148.71 0.083 0.089 -0.00519
Jason Repko112897 104.79 0.086 0.093 -0.00691
Jose Cruz131787 96.29 0.066 0.073 -0.00705
Bernie Williams2689226 247.78 0.084 0.092 -0.00810
Ken Griffey Jr.3439286 323.44 0.083 0.094 -0.01089

It's nice to see Andruw Jones, Edmonds and Rowand at the top of the list for full time center fielders. I'm also not surprised to see Williams and Griffey near the bottom. Off the top of my head, it looks like Damon will save the Yankees 30 to 35 outs versus having Bernie in center for the full season.

So it is time to move Griffey out of center field? The Reds play in a ballpark that is a home run haven. In that situation, it's important to keep men off base. If Griffe is allowing 40 men more to reach than expected, isn't that a huge hardship on the pitching staff and team? A poor play by Griffey, a bad pitch to the next batter, and it's two runs down for the Reds.

Correction: Fixed the first caption.


Comments

ah.. where's Chris Duffy? Ya gotta include Duff.. geezz..

Posted by: Joliet Jake at January 26, 2006 06:00 PM

Huh? It says second basemen at the top of the first chart.

Posted by: Rob McMillin at January 26, 2006 07:47 PM

Glad to see the numbers reflect well on Andruw. Diamond Mind gave him an average rating for the 2005 season, which I think is just miguided; and I've had Diamond Mind cheerleaders telling me that my lying eyes, which saw a pretty good Andruw last year, are wrong all wrong and that Diamond Mind's numbers cannot be disputed. BP's #s didn't think much more highly of him. I know it's popular these days to claim, despite the evidence, that Jones is now just a run of the mill fielder. He still gets to plenty of balls.

Posted by: RLB at January 26, 2006 10:37 PM

David, does your model say whether the 40 hits allowed by Griffey were singles, doubles, or triples? If you know that, you can adjust his batting totals downward, and that will tell you if he's still an effective player in CF.

Larry

Posted by: Larry Macdonald at January 26, 2006 10:53 PM

Seriously...this is the Reds we're talking about. They'll be lucky if their manager can even remember who's penciled in at CF.

Posted by: Kirby at January 27, 2006 12:17 AM

It's kind of surprising to see Torii Hunter in the middle of the pack...

Posted by: Kevin at January 27, 2006 10:08 AM

Also, being a Cubs fan, I don't like seeing Juan Pierre towards the bottom. I would have expected to see him towards the top of the list.

Posted by: Kevin at January 27, 2006 10:09 AM

I'm new to these fielding-rating systems.

Some maintain that, in assessing fielding, an error should count against the fielder no more than not getting to the ball.

Do errors get penalized? Are there only specific kinds of errors that weigh against the fielder?

I'm asking my question in relation to someone like, say, Chippers Jones. I know that most range metrics place him at the bottom end of range. However, Jones does make relatively few errors. From my observation, he rarely makes wild throwing errors or misplays routine to moderately difficult groundballs. I.e., when he gets to the ball, you don't have to hold your breath worrying that he is going to mishandle it, or zing it into the seats behind first base. (I'm assuming this could be verified; if I'm wrong about Jones, let's say there's a hypothetical guy who fits the profile.) Do most of these fielding-rating systems account for examples like this: the guy who has so-so range, but almost never boots the average to moderately difficult groundball? Isn't there some value (more than psychological) to having a third-baseman who always makes the routine plays? Or are most systems concerned solely with the number of plays the guy makes vs. number of balls hit in his zone? E.g., third baseman X got to and successfully converted 20 more gb's than thirdbaseman Z in the same number of opportunities in his zone, so he is the preferred fielder, even though 3b X had 15 more errors than 3b Z and also made 10 of those errors on average to moderately difficult GBs, while 3b Z made 0 errors on average to moderately difficult groundballs.

This are sincere questions from a novice. It's probably apparent that they haven't been thought through.

Posted by: John L at January 27, 2006 11:01 AM

John L,

This looks at an error the same as any other ball that fails to turn into an out. If the error was on an easy play (high probability of an out), the fielder is penalized a great deal. If the error is on a tough play, he's penalized less.

Most fielding systems are more interested in the plays you made vs. the plays you don't make. You ask an interesting question, however, dealing with the psychological effect of errors on the team. In general, however, I'd rather have the fielder who made 50 more plays than the one that made 10 fewer errors.

Posted by: David Pinto at January 27, 2006 12:52 PM

Thank you for your answer, David.

Posted by: John L at January 27, 2006 01:52 PM

With Rowand once against demonstrating himself as one of the top defensive center fielders I wonder how his trade to Philly will affect both him and the White Sox. How will playing in Philly for 81 games (as well as switching to a new league with different parks, different dimensions, etc.) affect him? Is there any way to tell? Also, the word is that Brian Anderson is a solid defensive player. Are there any minor league numbers that might indicate how well he can replace Rowand? I suspect White Sox pitchers may be a bit upset that Rowand is no longer patrolling the outfield.

Posted by: JD at January 28, 2006 01:34 AM

David, do you think the fact that Nick Swisher rates so highly in Range, and that Eric Byrnes rated so highly last year, that Mark Kotsay's rating as a center fielder is hurt by his corner outfielders? And if so, how might you account for a team effect, whereby some center fielders are greedy and take every ball hit in between himself and the corner outfielder, while others allow the corner guy to take a lot of those easy flies?

Posted by: RichRifkin at February 6, 2006 02:02 AM

Rich,

Centerfielders are supposed to be ball hogs. I was always taught the CF should get to any ball possible. If the left and right fielders are taking balls that the CF should get, that tells me the CF isn't very good.

Posted by: David Pinto at February 6, 2006 07:34 AM

30 outs difference between Damon and Bernie, eh? I was just musing about that number. When people talk defense they almost always inflate the impact -- 100 runs a year and all that.

But think about it: if both guys play 150 games a year, and Damon is actually catching 1 extra ball every 5 games (which would be 30 extra outs a year), isn't that a huge difference? That's huge! How many balls are hit to CF in a game anyway? 4? 6? How many of those are easy plays? 80%? 30 outs a year is a big difference.

Just reassuring myself that the Jamesian way of looking at things does, in fact, make sense. Thanks.

Posted by: Martin at February 7, 2006 10:27 PM
Post a comment









Remember personal info?