June 16, 2006
Whom to Chase?
Phil Sheridan postulates the Phillies have a better chance of catching the Mets than winning the wild card:
While the Phillies are in second place, their record would put them no higher than third in any other division in baseball. It also has them behind six other teams in the battle for the NL wild card.
That's right. Six.
Cincinnati is out in front with a 37-29 record. All four teams out of first in the NL West are at .500 or better, as is Houston. Milwaukee (32-35) is in the mix.
So the question is this: What about the Phillies makes you believe they are capable of outplaying seven or eight teams to win the wild card? Isn't it more likely for Houston to win it a third consecutive time? Or for Cincinnati to stay hot? Or for the NL West runner-up to earn the wild card?
The Phillies? This is a team that has come up short in every wild-card race since the darn thing was introduced in 1995, and has been achingly short in three of the last four seasons. If history is the best predictor of performance, the Phillies are as likely to win the Stanley Cup as they are to surge ahead of six teams and claim the wild card.
I also like this bit about playing up to their potential:
"Everybody is frustrated," said leftfielder Pat Burrell, who hit a pair of home runs yesterday. "We have virtually the same guys out there as we did last year. We're just not playing up to the potential that we're capable of."
Apparently, though, they are. They are the Punxsutawney Phils because, as in Groundhog Day, they go out and do the same thing over and over. The nucleus of players Burrell is talking about - himself, Bobby Abreu, David Bell, Mike Lieberthal, Jimmy Rollins - has fallen short year after year after year.
Part of the problem this year is luck. The Phillies are 8-13 in one-run games. And that's despite having a very good closer. But even if they were .500 in these close contests, they'd still have a long way to go to win the division. Part of the problem may be the park. I'd love to hear Phillies fans comment on the following chart:
| Doubles, 2006 | Phillies | Opponents |
|---|
| Home | 76 | 77 |
|---|
| Away | 46 | 70 |
|---|
Why do the Phillies doubles disappear away from town? Do the batters get into bad habits in that ballpark because power is easy there?
The article doesn't even try to make sense. If Milwaukee is "in the mix" for the wild card, why aren't the Phillies? Milwaukee is 5 1/2 games out of the wild card, Philly only 4.
The story just sounds like a fan whining about the Phils and not even bothering to get his numbers right. So what if Philly has missed out on the wild card in the past? They've still got a decent shot this year.
If I were Pete Rose and had to bet, I'd take Houston for the wild card because of that pitcher who's working in their minor league system right now. But it's way too early to count Philadelphia out.
Power isn't as easy at CBP as it used to be, homeruns are actually down there this year, so I don't think bad habits are the thing.
However, if you look at park factors over the last few years, the doubles rates are always low at CBP. Phloggers have always assumed it was because what would be a double at most parks was a homerun at CBP.
You raise an interesting thought....
