On the surface, the Mets are clearly a better team than the Cardinals. They are better at scoring, and better at preventing runs.

Even with injuries to Pedro Martinez and Cliff Floyd, the Mets still lead in stars 3-2. It's Pujols and Carpenter vs. Beltran, Delgado and Wright. Then when you get to the supporting cast, the Mets shine even more. Reyes, Glavine, Lo Duca, Wagner and Green can't be matched by Edmonds, Rolen Eckstein Wainwright and Suppan. Even Endy Chavez, likely to replace Floyd in left, had his best year getting on base. Willie Randolph got him to change his approach in a way that Frank Robinson couldn't.

You can see the superior Mets offense in their power:

Notice that even though the Cardinals ranks in BA and OBA are higher, there isn't that much difference between the two teams in getting on base. The Mets simply do a better job of moving those runners with long hits. The Mets also own a huge advantage in the speed game, with a stolen base percentage over 80%, while the Cardinals running game cost them runs; they were below the 67% break even point. The Cardinals were very good at stopping the running game and the Mets respected that. Jose Reyes was successful in all four of his attempts vs. St. Louis; no other Mets player attempted a steal.

Now for the pitching:

The Cardinals just aren't close. And with Chris Carpenter not starting until game three, the Mets could easily go up 2-0 in the series. Not that the back of the Mets rotation is that much better. Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez are likely to get starts. If game four turns out to be Perez vs. Marquis, you might see real fireworks. But the Mets have the better bullpen. Randolph can afford to bring his relievers in early, they improve the team. So, with his offense, he can afford to let Trachsel or Perez allow 3 or 4 runs over five innings. The Mets offense is capable of scoring more than that, and the bullpen is capable of preventing any more runs from crossing the plate.

So I see about a 70% chance of the Mets winning this series. Of course, when Juan Encarnacion hits .500 and Jeff Weaver pitches two shutouts, I'll be wrong. But the Mets certainly own the talent advantage. We'll see if that's enough to hold off any luck that falls the Cardinals way.

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