The ALCS gets underway tonight as two left-handers with nearly identical ERAs take the mound for the Detroit Tigers and the Oakland Athletics. Nate Robertson faces Barry Zito in Oakland, Nate with a 3.84 ERA, Zito a 3.83 mark. The two are very similar in hits allowed and home runs allowed. Robertson gave up two more long balls in 13 fewer innings. Zito is more likely to walk a batter. Nate walked batters at a rate of 2.9 per 9, Zito 4.0. Barry was just a bit more likely to strike out batters as well, 6.1 per 9 to 5.9 per 9 for Robertson.

A big difference that's applies directly to this game is their home/road breakdown. Zito finished the season 10-3 on the road but only 6-7 at home. His ERA showed close to a 2 run difference; 4.71 in Oakland, 2.97 away. Home runs especially were worse at the Coliseum, where 18 of his 27 dingers flew out of the park.

Robertson did better by about 0.7 runs away from Detroit. It's not exactly clear why, however. His walk, homers, and strikeouts were all about the same. It comes down to a bit of situational luck. On the road, he allowed a .149 batting average with runners in scoring position. At home, it was .237. My gut is Robertson is fairly neutral home/road, which gives the Tigers the edge as Zito was clearly at a disadvantage in his ballpark this season.

Oakland batters hit very well against left-handed pitchers this season. Their OBA went up 20 points and their slugging percentage rose 30 points. Detroit, on the other hand, suffered vs. lefties, seeing a six-point drop in OBA and a ten point drop in slugging percentage. So batting vs. lefties gives the edge to Oakland. That's borne out by Detroit's averages against Zito this season .143 BA, .333 OBA, .190 slugging percentage. The A's did much better against Robertson, at least in terms of power with .226/.281/.415 numbers.

Enjoy!

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