Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 14, 2006
Sweep Likely?

Are the Tigers about to sweep the Athletics? The comments printed by Wayne Drebs appear to indicate Oakland is a defeated team:

"We've run into a better team," Oakland third baseman Eric Chavez said. "And there's really nothing you can do. They've been better than us in every aspect of the game. I don't have any problem saying that."

What about the 2004 Red Sox?

"We're not the Red Sox," outfielder Milton Bradley said. "We don't exactly have David Ortiz."

I've often wondered why teams that go 3-0 sweep more often that go five games. One reason may be that a team that wins three in a row is truly better than the other team. But I also think this article points toward the mental state of the team that loses the first three. Bradley's statement is especially negative.

There have been 28 series (best of seven or best of nine) in which one team took the first three games. If the contestants were evenly matched, we'd expect 14 game fours to result in wins for the trailing team. Instead, only six teams managed to win game four. That's a 214 winning percentage. The probability of evenly matched teams only winning 6 of 28 is .002. There's more than luck involved here.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:44 AM | League Championship Series | TrackBack (0)
Comments

Somebody should tell Milton Bradley that they have Frank Thomas. ...and in yesterday's game, the A's looked like they were just going through the motions to get it over with, to make it official.

Posted by: Devon at October 14, 2006 12:46 PM

Says something about the mental state of the 2004 Sox when they were down 3 games to none themselves. It's those little intagibles, and hey, that come back, while it could not have happened without papi, was more than just him.
What I wouldn't give to have that teams attitude and personalities back

Posted by: Steve M at October 14, 2006 02:24 PM

I think somebody should tell Frank Thomas that they have Frank Thomas.

Posted by: Adam Villani at October 14, 2006 07:28 PM
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