October 19, 2006
Playoffs Today
This is one of those days I'm almost willing to chuck out sabermetric analysis and go for the great story lines of this game. It starts with the pitching matchup. Jeff Suppan is a twelve year veteran with one good year under his belt (2005 with St. Louis), and he's starting for the Cardinals tonight. He turned his career around at age 29 when he joined St. Louis. Before that he earned a .453 winning percentage and a 4.90 ERA. Since hurling for the Cardinals, he's gone 44-26 with a 3.95 ERA. He's a great example of a late bloomer, a pitcher who might have benefited from a couple of more years in the minors.
Oliver Perez also posted one good season in a much shorter career. Unlike Suppan, however, that one good season was spectacular. The idea that a team can help Oliver return to that form will keep him around the majors for a few more years. In his short time with the Mets he's already shown improvement, striking out more and walking fewer, although his home runs allowed remain high. He's certainly one of the more unlikely game seven starters you'll see. This does seem to be the post season of pitching redemption, so a great start by Perez would fit in perfectly.
One thing that should help Perez tonight is three of the righties he'll face are banged up. David Eckstein and Scott Rolen suffer from shoulder problems, while Albert Pujols is nursing a sore hamstring. I wonder if La Russa will play the hot hand and start Taguchi in left and Spiezio at third? Rolen did double late last night, but earlier in the evening he looked pretty bad at the plate. If one of the Cardinals walking wounded come through, it's another great story for the papers.
There will be comparisons to the 1986 World Series if the Mets win, coming back with two wins at home. Maybe even a Knight to Wright story if the Mets third baseman comes through.
There are a number of players on both teams I really like. David Eckstein, Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jim Edmonds, David Wright and Shawn Green. And the Mets manager, Willie Randolph, was one of my favorites growing up.
So sit back and enjoy the game. La Russa batting substitutions and Randoph's bullpen use should provide lots of second guessing. Look for unlikely heroes and starts stepping up. I can't wait.
Great overview. I can't wait to see the game, I missed the last one due to family crisis!
And Suppan was traded from Boston to Montreal in the deal that netted the Sox, Pedro. It's probably due to Pedro's absence that the series has gone on this long!
As a Mets fan, I'm so excited I can't get any work done. I'm just sitting at my desk, giddy as all hell.
Anyone else want to see another matchup between Wagner and Taguchi, especially in a meaningful ninth inning?
La Russa starts with a much hotter starter and a much hotter closer than Randolph. Middle relief for both clubs has been great in the postseason.
But the Mets have been hitting better. I agree with David that it might be worth La Russa's while to start Miles, Taguchi and Spiezio in place of Eckstein, Wilson and Rolen. The first trio won't make Cooperstown, but the second trio have been colder than fish on ice.
I don't like Pujols any more. In game 5, a terribly hobbled Cliff Floyd grounded out to Pujols. Wainwright was covering first and got there basically as Pujols fielded the ball. Floyd was barely in the picture, if at all.
But instead of taking the sure-thing and flipping to the covering pitcher, Pujols -- with injured hammy -- sprints to first, beating Floyd by a few steps.
It's brazen machismo BS, and totally uncalled for. If Floyd weren't injured, Pujols would have flipped the ball to Wainwright. Instead, he has to thump his chest.
How is it more of a sure thing to throw a ball than it is to carry it? If floyd is hurt, he has no business playing baseball and Randolph should have sat him down. Blame Randolph, not albert, if floyd gets hurt.
re: suppan v. perez
(1) with suppan, you know the soup will be ready in just a few more minutes.
(2) perez in game seven will let us know definitively if the Xavier Nady trade was a boom or a bust deal.
(3) I like all of the players you do as well with some asterisks. I liked Eckstein when he was younger, with the Angels. He's lost a little with age, but you have to admit he does find ways to get on base and he has winning attitude. Pujols, Delgado, Beltran, Edmonds, Wright are all guys I'd want on my team. Green I've commented negatively on. He came up with a big hit in Game Six, but here's the problem--he can't play outfield anymore and is better situated at 1B or leftfield. I think if he was in LF i'd find him ok. Does he produce enough offense at his age for LF/1B? not sure. He used to be a great player.
(4) Of all the many yankees there were, few were as great and as underappreciated as Willie Randolph. He was as great at second base in his day as Lazzeri Martin Gordon et al were in their day. He was a solid defender and he could hit. A key member of two World Series and four pennant champions. I liked Willie Randolph immensely when he played, and even before the Yanks got Reggie in 77', Randolph was one of the leaders of the 76' Yanks that got to the Series but lost to the Big Red Machine.
--art kyriazis, philly
DNL wrote: "If Floyd weren't injured, Pujols would have flipped the ball to Wainwright. Instead, he has to thump his chest."
I don't think that's accurate. I've seen Pujols play probably 800 baseball games over the years, and, like Steve Garvey, he ALWAYS takes it himself if he can. DNL says that tossing the ball to Wainwright was "a sure thing," but I think we can all agree that a lot more can go wrong on a throw to the pitcher than on 1B unassisted, particularly when, as DNL concedes, Pujols beat Floyd "by a few steps."
I won't deny that Pujols has given plenty of grist to his critics this series -- his dissing of Glavine after Game 1 was flat-out rude -- but his play on Floyd doesn't seem like a good example of chest-thumping, at least not to me.
What Perez does tonight will have absolutely no effect on evaluating whether the Nady deal was good or bad.
The Nady deal was about getting Roberto Hernandez after the injury to Duaner Sanchez at the trade deadline.
Perez' value, from the get-go, was long term, after seeing what Rick Petersen could do to fix him. He was never supposed to be pitching in the playoffs at all. The fact that superceding events resulted in his getting at least 2 playoff starts doesn't change the evaluation of the deal.
Big mistake going with perez tonight. just my instincts telling me this. he's pitched just OK this playoffs. i would go with Oliver or Glavine, they are veterans. perez was just one or two pitches away from taking a decent game 3 outing (or game 4, i cant remember) and tturning it into a bad outing.
gotta go with experience in my mind.
Don't quit the day job Gov'Nah. Glavine can't go much more than an inning, only an idiot would start him. Oliver has not started all season, this ain't the time to experiment. Choice was really Perez v Trax, win or lose Willie made the right call.