Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
October 23, 2006
Prasing Rogers

Evan Grant in the Dallas morning news praises Kenny Rogers:

Kenny Rogers would have you believe all that even when the cold - really cold, if you were in Detroit on Sunday - hard facts say something else. Namely, they say that Kenny Rogers is one of baseball's elite left-handed pitchers.

Ever.

Rogers' eight shutout innings in Detroit's 3-1 win over St. Louis in Game 2 of the World Series on Sunday was further documentation. Rogers, who allowed only two hits (both singles) has now pitched 23 consecutive scoreless innings in October. It's four shy of the all-time record.

Add that to his other accomplishments. This is a guy who has thrown a perfect game, who has 207 career wins, appears headed for 250 and who is the best fielding pitcher of a generation.

That ought to speak for itself. But it didn't.

What separated Rogers from the upper tier of lefties was a history of postseason struggles. He failed as a starter for the Yankees in the 1996 World Series and failed as a reliever for the Mets in the 1999 World Series. And if you can't make it in New York, you can't make it anywhere.

Rogers could win all the games he wanted in Texas or Minnesota or some god-forsaken outpost such as Detroit, but his career would always be tinged with a "but." But, it would be written, he couldn't win the big game.

I don't agree. Rogers record is out of whack with his career ERA of 4.19. His .598 winning percentage indicates his teams averaged 5.67 runs per 9 in support of the pitcher. He's an okay pitcher who was blessed to spend his career on high scoring teams. He's not one of baseball's elite lefties.


Posted by David Pinto at 09:07 AM | Pitchers | TrackBack (0)
Comments

When you have to go to fielding to make your case for a pitcher, you might want to rethink the case.

Besides, if any pitcher holds the ridiculous title of 'best field pitcher of a generation", it's Greg Maddux, not Rogers.

Posted by: JC at October 23, 2006 09:21 AM

Rogers certainly isn't as great as recent media is making him out to be, but he's also been a better pitcher than casual fans and many saber-minded fans care to admit. He's had a better career than many modern pitchers who received a greatl deal more press.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at October 23, 2006 09:49 AM

Since when did the Mets make it to the '99 World Series? Rogers flamed out in the NLCS against Atlanta. Game 6 he walked in the winning run. He wasn't even on the Mets when they made it to the WS the next year.

Posted by: festus at October 23, 2006 11:17 AM

It's from Dallas...they're trying to get Rogers back in a Rangers uni, now that they see he can pitch in the post season. That's why he's saying that stuff. Kenny's pitched great this october, but, it's only once. 1 out of 3 post seasons.

Posted by: Devon at October 23, 2006 01:18 PM

Rogers is an interesting case for the sabermetricians. He's never been a huge name, and he's probably best known for disappointment in his two Yankee seasons and for shoving a cameraman. Neither of these lowlights of his career endeared him to the media.

But he's been a consistently above average pitcher. His career ERA of 4.19 looks high, but that's because he pitched in a high-offense era. The combined park-adjusted league ERA for his career has been 4.60 (he's pitched almost all his games in the DH league).

So adjusting for park effects - Ameriquest hurt him, Comerica helped him, etc. - baseball-reference.com figures he's been 10% better in ERA than a league-average pitcher over his career. In only three of his eighteen seasons has he been worse than league average. His last two seasons have been among his best, at thirty and eighteen percent better than league average.

That's not spectacular but it's certainly serviceable. You fill your staff with pitchers who are ten percent better than league average year after year, and you've got a chance to contend year after year if your offense is halfway decent.

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 23, 2006 01:24 PM

Decided to check a few more lefties on the baseball-reference.com database. Tom Glavine's probably going to the HOF, and he rates 20% better than league average for his career. Randy Johnson is definitely going to the Hall, and he comes in 38% better.

Looking at a few young'uns, Sabathia is 11% better, Zito 27% and Santana 44%. And if I had to guess, I'd say their HOF chances are slim, decent, and real good, respectively. All that could change with their next pitch, of course.

Rogers won't get a plaque, but he has definitely put together a career that's better than "okay".

Posted by: Casey Abell at October 23, 2006 01:52 PM

Devon, trust me, Dallas isn't in any hurry to get Kenny Rogers back...We value our cameramen too much!

Posted by: Franklin at October 23, 2006 02:44 PM

First: the idea that Kenny Rogers is one of "baseball's elite lefties...ever" is absurd.

He does have a change to go down as one of the 5-10 greatest OLD lefties. He's won 93 games since turning 35. Glavine's won 82 (though he's a year younger).

Here's a short list of lefties after they turned 35:

Spahn - 183
Plank - 124
Carlton - 102
Grove - 97
Rogers - 93
Glavine - 82

I'm sure there's a name or two I've forgotten.

Posted by: dave at October 23, 2006 03:01 PM

Oh wow...I plum forgot Dave Wells - 124 wins after turning 35.

Posted by: dave at October 23, 2006 03:04 PM

For those of you who like JAWS (JAffe WARP Score), Rogers is ranked #52 all-time among pitchers (starters and relievers). JAWS balances peak and career WARP3 figures. For context purposes (I forget the exact number) I think Saberhagen is #55, and Chuck Finley is #47 or #48.

Posted by: Marc Normandin at October 24, 2006 11:55 AM
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