Lookout Landing makes a case for not paying Jason Schmidt more than $10 million a year.

Any contract talk should operate under the assumption that, as an aging pitcher, Schmidt is unlikely to exceed his 2006 performance. Have him repeat his season in Safeco and he probably puts up an ERA around 3.80-4.00. Over 200+ innings, that guy's worth up to $10m or so, maybe a little less (I'm feeling generous). So even allowing for total consistency over the next several years, you're looking at an absolute max of $30m/3yr - $40m/4yr. I don't think that's going to get it done (although the latter has an outside shot).

But what are the odds that Schmidt staves off further decline for the life of his contract? Although his PECOTA page hasn't been updated for 2006, his list of Baseball-Reference comps is terrifying (this isn't authoritative by any means, but still). He turns 34 next January, his strikeout rate has dropped 24% in two years, and as a power pitcher with a history of high workloads he carries an elevated risk of injuries causing him to miss time or pitch worse. Plus, his walk rate's already teetering on the edge of acceptability, and any drop in command could make all kinds of bad things happen. Suddenly you're looking at something like (say) $25m/3yr - $32m/4yr, and that's definitely not going to cut it.

I don't want to get carried away and proclaim that the end is nigh for Jason Schmidt's career, because I don't think it is. Even in what looks like the early stages of an age-related decline, he still has a lot to give before he loses his usefulness, and after starting 32 games in 2006 it seems silly to call his durability into question. But at the same time, he and his agent are going to be asking the market for a #1-type contract, and the smart money's on Schmidt not holding up his end of the bargain.

The only problem with this analysis is that we don't know what the market will bear. I suspect Jason is better than most pitchers who are available via free agency this off season, and that alone will drive his price up. At any price, Schmidt is not going to turn the Mariners into champions. There are tons of holes offensively with only the leadoff hitter posting a decent OBA and the heart of the order supplying minimum power. Johan Santana would have a tough time winning with that offense. Spending a lot on a simply good pitcher isn't the best place to put the Mariners money.