Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 10, 2006
The Case Against Soriano

Bill Conlin makes a case against Soriano. Although he starts with some Bill James statistics, it's really the strikeouts that bother him:

That's how 473 strikeouts look all lined up to march into box scores, ready to kill rallies. That's how many times Ryan Howard (181), Soriano (160) and Utley (132) walked slowly back to the dugout last season.

You're talking about the 3-4-5 spots in the Phillies' batting order. And, yes, the thought of the 136 homers they hit last season is intoxicating. However, the mind boggles at the stranded RISP numbers all those strikeouts represent. Abandon all hope should general manager Pat Gillick be stuck with Mr. Irrelevant in leftfield. Pat Burrell had an amazing 131 strikeouts last season in just 462 at-bats. That raises the 2006 total for the quartet to 604. That's three mortal-lock Ks in the bank for each of 162 games.

The basic premise at work is the menace of Soriano on deck would keep managers from pitching around Howard, particularly with an open base. Remember, Soriano racked up his 160 while mainly leading off for the Nationals. If the guy was swinging at paper cups blowing past the plate in a spot where getting on base any whichway used to be the idea, imagine him in the four hole.

That returns us to baserunning, of course. If Charlie Manuel sticks Fonzi's righthanded bat between his lefty swingers, Howard would have to hit No. 3.

That is simply flawed thinking. If you had to clone a prototypical No. 4 hitter, you would come up with the current Ryan Howard model.

But you also would be stuck with the sixth-least efficient baserunner in the majors. Howard runs hard. He runs with good judgment. He just runs slower than bulk-rate mail. Utley is a plus 27. Ryan is a minus 21, which ties him with Burrell and reflects 4-for-24 going first to third, 9-for-16 second to home and 8-for-14 first to home.

So now assume Charlie has 40-40 man Soriano hitting behind Howard. So they single back-to-back with one out. No stolen base there - Howard is camped on second. Utley lines a single to right. Howard is held at third. Soriano is forced to slam on the brakes at second. Bases loaded, one out. That's three stranded runners waiting to happen.

Of course, if Soriano is actually going to put up a .360 OBA, he's a better leadoff hitter than Rollins. So one way around this is batting Soriano leadoff and Rollins 8th. Or bat Utley third and Howard fifth, or just don't worry all that much about batting lefties back-to-back. Utley 3rd, Howard 4th, Soriano 5th will work just fine.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:26 AM | Free Agents | TrackBack (0)
Comments

But as you wrote last week or so, will Soriano actually put up that kind of OBP again?

Posted by: Tom G at November 10, 2006 10:32 AM

I'm always confused: Don't the sabremetricians always say battling order is virtually irrelevant over a 162 game season?

Posted by: steve at November 10, 2006 03:55 PM

Absurdity, of course. Among other things, there's not one single problem with batting Howard 3rd. Nor a problem with batting Soriano 2nd with Howard 3rd and Burrell 4th.

The problem simply is that Soriano is unlikely to ever have a season like that ever again, but will inevitably be paid like he will repeat it 4 times over 5 years by some GM who is willing to gamble that it could happen. Under those circumstances, the only winning move is not to play.

Posted by: NBarnes at November 11, 2006 07:45 AM

re; soriano striking out a lot

I read the bill conlin column also, since I read the daily news here in philly pretty often.

i had an email exchange with conlin a couple of years back where he called bill james and sabrmetrics guys names i can't repeat here, so i guess it's progress that he's reading james now and understanding the concepts.

as far as batting behind howard and utley in the #5 hold, Burrell had an OBA of close to .400, struck out about 125 times, homered 29 times and had a slugging average of .500. Soriano would probably have an OBA of .350, homer about 35-50 times, depending, strike out about 124-150 times, and have a marginally higher slugging average of .550-.600 since he has some doubles and triples power.

As a a REPLACEMENT for Burrell, he only picks up about 5-10 win shares over Burrell's 15--did Soriano have more than 25 win shares last year? If he had 30, then that's a pickup of 15--but that assumes Soriano remains at the top of his game.

If Soriano regresses to the mean, then probably it's a pickup of 7-8 win shares. Also Burrell had a bad season for him; he's had win share seasons of as many as 22 before.

The best would be to play both, though that kills your defense with Soriano in Right and Burrell in Left; but with Soriano batting 5th and Burrell 6th, you'd generate a lot of offense and more oba. That would also generate 60 homers from the corners of the outlfield.

I like victorino in that situation to play center and bat second after rollins.

I agree that the k's don't matter--howard struck out nearly 170 times--but he created 31 runs.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at November 13, 2006 07:25 AM
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