Is it possible that the Red Sox put in such a huge bid just to block the Yankees from getting him? If the Sox and Matsuzaka can't agree on a salary figure in the next few weeks, don't the Sox get their $38-$45 million dollar bid back from the Lions?

Does this mean that the Sox would pay a minimum of $38 million dollars PLUS the salary for the player, in a year where player salary is expected to be much higher than usual? How does that make sense at all? Why not just go after a Barry Zito instead of knowingly overpaying by $40 mil for an unproven -- if promising -- japanese pitcher?

The one that you have to factor in, like with Ichiro and Matsui, is the extra revenue gained from controlling a star Japanese players rights. Red Sox will make some of that up from Japanese bids on luxury boxes, Red Sox gear sales in Japan and marketing rights. Won't pay for all of it, but unlike the Yankees who already make a lot from Matsui, the Red Sox can look to a lot of extra revenue.

What do you mean by "They make the decision to accept or reject just on the dollar figure, *which may include salary for the pitcher*. " The posting doesn't include salary? I was under the impression that the posting goes entirely to Seibu?

If there's suspicion of collusion, or teams not bidding in good faith, the whole deal can be scrapped.

I can't see how signing Matsuzaka is economically feasible once the posting fee gets so high. If (say) Boston posts $40 million and then offers him a salary in the range of what he could get by waiting until next year, why on earth wouldn't they bank the $40 and tack half of it on to a competitive offer next year? They save, Matsuzaka earns more. On the other hand, if Boston plans to make a lowball salary offer, why on earth would Matsuzaka (and Scot Boras!) accept it rather than waiting a year?

At $20 million I can almost see it. Waiting means forgoing a year of salary, and of course there's a small chance the kid could get hurt. But at $40 mil how can this work?

That's ludicrous, and should put an end to all the "A-Rod is overpaid" b.s.

michael,
Because there isn't a single person in baseball, anywhere, who I've ever heard say "Matsuzaka won't be a stud in the Major Leagues." This is one situation were scouts AND sabermetricians are both drooling. You're right, you know what you're getting from Zito. And it's not that impressive...his 3.83 ERA last season looks nice until you notice that his k/rate fell, walk rate got worse, baa got worse, WHIP got worse, and HR/9 stayed about the same...one year doesn't mean a hell of a lot, I know, and Zito will do some NL team proud...but he's not on the same level as Matsuzaka. And don't worry, this isn't a Hideki Irabu situation. Japanese baseball has improved since then (One metric has it between AAA and MLB) and Matsuzaka's numbers are absolutely dominant. Far more so then Irabu's were before he came to the states.

I'd also point out that in my opinion, this Boras fear is mostly unfounded. Boras doesn't get a dime if Matsuzaka goes back to Japan, and Daisuke's value isn't going to get any higher then it is this year. You can expect the kid to command a good salary, but I don't think Boras has the leverage to fleece anybody.

Finally, as to whether this is economically responsible...from what I've read, most teams view the posting fee as a sunk cost. It doesn't factor into payroll, and ownership doesn't count it as part of the money the GM is allowed to spend. That's why some smaller market teams were talking about putting in a bid; ownership wouldn't have counted it towards their payroll and what they were allowed to spend this offseason. So again...this isn't an A-Rod deal in the making. And it's the biggest impact signing Boston could make this offseason.

I also believe the bid does not go towards the luxury tax

I agree that Matsuzaka projects favorably in the majors, but I also remember when Kaz Matsui was a can't-miss prospect. While stats and makeup may suggest major league performance, it isn't a sure thing, and in my opinion it is a very unwise investment unless the new revenue streams that come with a star Japanese player are really that pronounced.

Jered Weaver was a can't-miss pitcher coming out of college, but nobody threw $40mil at Jared's agent just for the right to negotiate with him, and I doubt Matsuzaka will play as well as Weaver did this season. However, I am sure that Theo Epstein et al. are a lot smarter than I am.

Also: signing D-Mat doesn't cost a draft pick, while Zito would net the A's a first-rounder.

As the winning bid gets the team exclusive rights, it limits how much Boras can press for money. D-Mat has expressed a desire to play in the majors next year. The Lions are unlikely to get the same 35-45 million offer next year (when D-Mat is just a year from free ageny), and willl likely preasure him to sign.

I expect the winning bid will press for a five-year deal, and if they can get that done for $40-$50 million, that totals to $15-19 million a year. A lot of dough, but as others have said, D-Mat looks like the real deal and the Sox need starting pitching.

As a Yankees fan, the Red Sox paying $35+ million to negotiate a $65 million+ deal for an unkown commodity would be basically the greatest thing ever. If this goes down this will have confirmed Theo Epstein was never the genius we all thought he was.

"As a Yankees fan, the Red Sox paying $35+ million to negotiate a $65 million+ deal for an unkown commodity would be basically the greatest thing ever. If this goes down this will have confirmed Theo Epstein was never the genius we all thought he was."

Because a man should only be judged by one signing. Like, maybe Carl Pavano. Or Jared Wright. Or Hideki Irabu. Or Jose Contreras. That Brian Cashman sure isn't a genius. (Which isn't true; getting three good prospects for Sheffield is an amazing deal. And Epstein has made other bad moves. And good ones. Like nearly every GM.)

Matsuzaka is a big risk, but almost all pitchers are risks due to the possibility of injury, not to mention random bouts of ineffectiveness. But all scouts say this guy is pretty can't-miss; if he's a bust, I'm not sure how that reflects on Epstein one way or the other. Anyone who gets him is taking that same risk.

Zito is the safe signing; this is the high-cost, high-risk, high-potential upside one.

Also, from Boras and his client's perspective, a 3 yr/$30+ million deal might make more sense than a 5 yr/$65 million one, if only because he'd be 29-30 at that point and able to command even more money if he turns out to be a legit #1 starter.

Look at what's going on with JD Drew right now as an example.

Winning the bid doesn't mean you've signed the player. Winning the bid just means you've earned the right to negotiate exclusively with the player (and his agent) for 30 days. It's a calculated risk to bid high to earn that right, but worst case scenario Boras turns down the offer, the Sox never pay out their bid, D-Mat pitches in Japan for the '07 season, and becomes a free agent for the '08 season, and the Sox can get back into the game to try and sign him. So, everyone who's saying Epstein and the Sox are idiots is jumping the gun by a long shot. We don't even know for sure the Sox won the bidding process.

I don't think Zito is the safe signing either. The guy's got talent, but he's a bit of a head case with a rapidly rising ERA. Put him in Boston or NY in pinstripes where he has to face the AL East and you can't possibly say he's any better than a solid no. 3 starter. I see him ending up as the no. 2 guy for the Mets in the NL.

I like this move by the Sox, in the end. If you had the chance to build the front of your rotation around D-Mat, Beckett, and Papelbon you'd do it, wouldn't you? You'd have to try anyway. Only thing is: can Varitek catch a gyroball? ;-)

Steve, good point -- but I think you're wrong about *Boras's* perspective. No saying that Boras will still be Matsuzaka's agent in three years, after all.

I love this stuff about 'sunk costs'. Believe me, Theo Epstein understands very well that spending $40 mil to negotiate and then $55 mil for five years' salary is paying $95 mil for five years of pitching. (The luxury tax difference is a fair point, but that's small potatoes compared to the gigantic sums we're talking about here.)

Dave, I'm sure the Lions would love to get the big signing fee, but what 'pressure' can they bring to bear on Matsuzaka? He can tell them to go f- themselves any time he feels like it.

I happen to be a Matsuzaka optimist: I think he'll be an All-Star. But unless he's Roger Clemens he can't be worth $40 million in posting fees plus the salary he can surely command.

"Like, maybe Carl Pavano. Or Jared Wright. Or Hideki Irabu. Or Jose Contreras."

Does anyone really think Cashman was behind all these moves? He didn't wrestle complete control from Tampa until last offseason.

The luxury tax is a HUGE difference here. Think about it like this: the Sox are over the luxury tax threshold, so they get taxed at 40% for every dollar they spend. If they throw money at a free agent pitcher, then they pay $1.40 for every dollar they spend. So you can ask the question: What contract would they have to offer a US free agent pitcher (Barry Zito, for instance) to account for the $95M they would owe Matsuzaka (along with the tax on $55M contract portiion)?

And the answer is $79M/5 years. So 40M/55M is the same as offering a US free agent pitcher $16M a year for 5 years. In those terms, is it a good deal?

I'm not sure. Matsuzaka isn't proven in the US. But I'd be surprised if Zito goes for less money than that.

No, paying $40 million to negotiate and then $55 over 5 years is NOT paying $95 million for pitching. The posting fee does not get taxed, and it does not count as part of Boston's payroll. Officially at least, Theo's payroll remains the same regardless of what John Henry forks over for negotiation rights. In other words, if Boston's going to pay $120 million to field a team, the $45 million posting fee does NOT count as part of that number. So in that respect...if Theo and the ownership don't change the team's payroll because of the posting fee...then what does it matter? It will, presumably, have no effect on the GM's ability to put other guys on the field.

And what Andrew says is accurate, too, and further highlights the point I'm trying to make. If you want to argue that Matsuzaka is a worse signing then Barry Zito, fine...but from a value standpoint, he's a much better investment. After luxury tax, he's really not that much more expensive then any top-level FA SP. And he's got a hell of a lot more upside to him then Zito and his declining peripherals.

And once again...Matsuzaka's numbers in Japan are far more impressive then Irabu's ever were. And what little I've read about him as a person makes me think he'd handle the pressure of the MLB, and particularly Boston, just fine.

I think that 8-10 million per year will be enough to get a deal done. Matsuzaka has expressed a strong desire to play in the major leagues. The Lions will be less likely to get a huge posting fee next year (when he's a year away from free agency) and will therefore be less likely to deal him to the big leagues.

People seem to think that the Red Sox (or whomever wins the post) are dealing with Scott Boras. They're not. They're dealing with Matsuzaka.

Sure this is a risky deal, but there is tremendous upside to the gamble, both for the team on the field and in the additional revenues for the team that signs him. Would money from Japan for the rights to broadcast Sox games cover some or all of the cost of the posting?

I agree about the luxury tax; I underestimated it. But this is positively absurd:

"Officially at least, Theo's payroll remains the same regardless of what John Henry forks over for negotiation rights. In other words, if Boston's going to pay $120 million to field a team, the $45 million posting fee does NOT count as part of that number."

Who cares what's officially part of the payroll and what gets counted as 'other expenses' on the accounting sheet? Aside from the luxury tax, what possible difference does it make? If they don't put up the $40 million, they can spend it on something else, hold ticket prices down... whatever they could do with $40 million salary savings they could do with $40 million 'posting fee' savings.

"They're (the final team in the post) not dealing with Scott Boras" even though people "seem to think" so. Is there a
published report stating this?

James,

My only point was that the team's payroll isn't affected because of the posting fee. As for whether that money would have been used to hold down ticket prices or the price of anything else...gimme a break. Boston's not gonna do the fans a solid and cut prices anytime soon; they have no reason to. And, incidentally, they've already announced that ticket prices won't be going up this year.

I was operating on the assumption that the $45 million would sort of be a freebie; that whether it was spent or not, life would go on as usual for most everyone in the organization. And I still think that that's most likely the case, since I don't see the organization doing the fans any favors one way or the other. Which is fine...just good business, I say.

The $40M doesn't get luxury-taxed, but that doesn't mean it's free money that pops out of nowhere. It just means it's not quite as bad as spending all that money directly on a salary. In other words, they'd better be damn certain that Matsuzaka is going to be an absolute stud before spending that kind of money on him. I understand that you have to take some risks, but this seems kinda extreme if you ask me.

One of Boston's big problems, though (and New York's (both)) is that at their salary levels, you can spend stupid amount of money for relatively small marginal advantages. Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Randy Johnson, and now (maybe) Matsuzaka aren't paid to be cost efficient. They're paid to be the best of the best, to provide the extra win or two a year that other people just can't, ever. That's the sort of player that Epstein and Cashman are both looking to break the bank for. If you're stupid and the Royals, you nickel and dime yourself for mediocrities at multiple positions.

If this report is true (and we really have no reason to believe that it is), then Epstein is spending that kind of money because he believes Matsuzaka will be five, maybe six wins better than the guy he pushes off the back end of Boston's rotation. For that, John Henry can find the money, just like Steinbrenner can.

Or, at least, that's what would be going through Epstein's mind. I'm pretty sure he was thinking a close relative to this process when he signed Renteria; spending premium money to secure a premium talent at a premium position. That didn't end well. On the other hand, that's also what he was thinking when he traded for Curt Shilling, and, as they say, pennants fly forever.