Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
November 14, 2006
The Manufacturers

Balls, Sticks and Stuff looks compares overall run scoring to Bill James Manufactured Runs (MR) measure in The Bill James Handbook 2007.

As it turns out, there is a moderate inverse correlation between the percentage of runs a team scores by "manufacturing" and the number of runs the team scores overall. There was a slight difference among leagues: the correlation across all of baseball was -0.573, -0.633 in the American League, and -0.502 in the National League.

Naturally, caveats apply. One seasons worth of numbers is a very low sample size, and of course, say it with me, correlation is not causation. But it appears that in general, teams that relied on grinding and manufacturing runs in 2006 tended, in general, to score less runs. Generally speaking.

This makes perfect sense. Teams tend to use one-run strategies when their offense isn't that good (see the comment on Ozzie Guillen here). But also, James counts two types of MRs. Type ones are runs that are intentionally manufactured; they results from steals and bunts, for example. Type II result from less direct means, like having a batter single, moving him up with two ground outs and scoring on a wild pitch. And teams that score like that often aren't good offenses, as their productive outs don't eat away at the team's OBA.


Posted by David Pinto at 08:51 AM | Offense | TrackBack (0)
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