Baseball Musings: In the Air and On the Ground

November 15, 2006

In the Air and On the Ground

Update: Please ignore this post. See here.

To follow up on yesterday's team probabilistic model of range post, I wanted to see how teams did with balls on the ground and balls in the air. We'll start with the ground balls.

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Ground Balls Only (ground balls and bunt grounders)
Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Astros	2100	1634	1565.36	0.778	0.745	0.03269
Tigers	2115	1632	1573.02	0.772	0.744	0.02789
Royals	2083	1502	1446.85	0.721	0.695	0.02648
Mariners	2009	1492	1440.90	0.743	0.717	0.02544
Blue Jays	2123	1585	1534.63	0.747	0.723	0.02373
Cardinals	2204	1670	1618.52	0.758	0.734	0.02336
Twins	2004	1483	1442.90	0.740	0.720	0.02001
Padres	1951	1492	1459.41	0.765	0.748	0.01670
Red Sox	2062	1527	1495.15	0.741	0.725	0.01544
Yankees	2046	1495	1463.92	0.731	0.716	0.01519
Mets	2001	1519	1489.78	0.759	0.745	0.01460
Giants	1972	1490	1463.01	0.756	0.742	0.01369
White Sox	2059	1508	1484.16	0.732	0.721	0.01158
Rockies	2211	1675	1656.12	0.758	0.749	0.00854
Rangers	2206	1622	1604.17	0.735	0.727	0.00808
Athletics	2026	1494	1480.91	0.737	0.731	0.00646
Brewers	1958	1437	1426.49	0.734	0.729	0.00537
Diamondbacks	2223	1651	1641.68	0.743	0.738	0.00419
Phillies	2085	1535	1526.82	0.736	0.732	0.00393
Cubs	1879	1394	1389.39	0.742	0.739	0.00245
Angels	1922	1389	1384.71	0.723	0.720	0.00223
Devil Rays	2045	1428	1424.81	0.698	0.697	0.00156
Dodgers	2288	1671	1668.07	0.730	0.729	0.00128
Pirates	2187	1607	1609.11	0.735	0.736	-0.00096
Orioles	2020	1443	1448.28	0.714	0.717	-0.00261
Braves	2152	1562	1578.07	0.726	0.733	-0.00747
Marlins	1984	1443	1460.09	0.727	0.736	-0.00861
Reds	2036	1473	1501.86	0.723	0.738	-0.01418
Indians	2160	1514	1550.01	0.701	0.718	-0.01667
Nationals	1974	1415	1465.44	0.717	0.742	-0.02555

I'm not surprised that the Astros, with Everett at shortstop, were the best in the majors.
As you can see, the Red Sox infield did a pretty good job of turning balls in play into outs, especially considering that only the Devil Rays were given tougher balls to field. Let's look at flyballs now:

Probabilistic Model of Range, 2006, Team Air Balls Only (Fly balls, line drives, and bunt pops)
Team	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Braves	2338	1516	1483.12	0.648	0.634	0.01407
Blue Jays	2203	1409	1380.22	0.640	0.627	0.01306
Yankees	2426	1608	1577.01	0.663	0.650	0.01278
Cubs	2273	1509	1485.08	0.664	0.653	0.01052
Mets	2309	1509	1487.02	0.654	0.644	0.00952
Angels	2379	1581	1562.76	0.665	0.657	0.00767
Brewers	2342	1513	1496.99	0.646	0.639	0.00684
Giants	2450	1608	1592.20	0.656	0.650	0.00645
Indians	2434	1585	1569.49	0.651	0.645	0.00637
Diamondbacks	2239	1398	1384.16	0.624	0.618	0.00618
Royals	2535	1618	1604.08	0.638	0.633	0.00549
Padres	2435	1624	1613.70	0.667	0.663	0.00423
Nationals	2620	1758	1755.09	0.671	0.670	0.00111
Reds	2491	1608	1605.91	0.646	0.645	0.00084
Cardinals	2244	1426	1426.20	0.635	0.636	-0.00009
Marlins	2355	1528	1528.87	0.649	0.649	-0.00037
Mariners	2422	1562	1563.02	0.645	0.645	-0.00042
White Sox	2469	1630	1632.33	0.660	0.661	-0.00095
Orioles	2415	1570	1573.97	0.650	0.652	-0.00165
Red Sox	2401	1501	1505.14	0.625	0.627	-0.00173
Tigers	2324	1480	1489.34	0.637	0.641	-0.00402
Rockies	2379	1454	1463.81	0.611	0.615	-0.00412
Devil Rays	2500	1620	1633.87	0.648	0.654	-0.00555
Phillies	2353	1486	1500.10	0.632	0.638	-0.00599
Twins	2324	1484	1500.26	0.639	0.646	-0.00700
Rangers	2336	1462	1480.25	0.626	0.634	-0.00781
Dodgers	2248	1413	1431.70	0.629	0.637	-0.00832
Athletics	2504	1626	1653.48	0.649	0.660	-0.01097
Astros	2242	1405	1437.28	0.627	0.641	-0.01440
Pirates	2261	1390	1427.93	0.615	0.632	-0.01678

I'm amazed that the Giants rank as high as they do, given the age of their team. But you can also see that the Yankees benefitted from trying to improve their outfield defense. When we run individual numbers, we'll see just who contributed to this performance. The other thing that strikes me about this data is just how tough it is to cover ground in the higher elevations. Look at the expected DER for the Rockies and Diamondbacks. Each had a tough set of balls to catch, and the Diamondbacks did a much better job getting to them.

Correction: Fixed caption on the second table.

Posted by David Pinto at 04:59 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

You mean Fly Balls in the title of the second table, right?

David, have you ever posted the results of your park adjustments? Is there a post anywhere that lists the differences between parks in your methodology? How much of an impact is your park adjustment having vs. Dewan's system?

Posted by: studes at November 15, 2006 05:42 PM

I have not published them. Remember, the park is a built in parameter; there isn't an overall adjustment. What I could do is run models with and without the park by park to see what the difference looks like. I'll see if I have time for that tomorrow.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 15, 2006 05:58 PM

What constitutes the difficulty of balls to field? I don't see where the Red Sox were the only anything except for the Devil Rays.

Posted by: Barron at November 15, 2006 07:15 PM

Good work, but watching the A's all season I find it hard to believe their outfield is ranked so slow. They had 3 center fielders out there a lot and to the eye appeared to cover a lot of ground and make a lot of plays.

Posted by: Joe at November 15, 2006 08:43 PM