Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders, 2006

November 19, 2006

Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders, 2006

With Soriano looking like he's headed to the Cubs, I thought I'd start off the positions with left fielders.

Probabilistic Model of Range, Leftfielders. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only.
Player	InPlay	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Brandon W Fahey	1164	101	91.44	0.087	0.079	0.00821
Matt Diaz	1798	163	150.04	0.091	0.083	0.00721
Reed Johnson	1915	129	116.43	0.067	0.061	0.00656
Melky Cabrera	3063	217	199.05	0.071	0.065	0.00586
So Taguchi	1141	87	81.23	0.076	0.071	0.00506
Dave Roberts	2887	239	226.53	0.083	0.078	0.00432
Emil Brown	2359	163	154.92	0.069	0.066	0.00342
Matt Murton	3026	240	229.83	0.079	0.076	0.00336
Ryan Langerhans	2240	156	148.71	0.070	0.066	0.00325
Juan Rivera	1440	126	122.50	0.087	0.085	0.00243
Andre E Ethier	2779	172	165.56	0.062	0.060	0.00232
David DeJesus	1736	138	134.02	0.079	0.077	0.00229
Frank Catalanotto	2308	140	135.18	0.061	0.059	0.00209
Cliff Floyd	2280	148	143.78	0.065	0.063	0.00185
Jason Michaels	3283	214	208.61	0.065	0.064	0.00164
Alfonso Soriano	4405	326	318.93	0.074	0.072	0.00161
Jason Bay	4269	316	309.87	0.074	0.073	0.00143
Marcus Thames	1193	70	68.93	0.059	0.058	0.00090
Garret Anderson	2377	192	190.14	0.081	0.080	0.00078
Kevin Mench	1217	80	79.09	0.066	0.065	0.00075
Barry Bonds	2708	188	187.05	0.069	0.069	0.00035
Jay Payton	1442	119	118.54	0.083	0.082	0.00032
Luke B Scott	1188	81	81.19	0.068	0.068	-0.00016
Brad Wilkerson	2106	139	139.49	0.066	0.066	-0.00023
Jeff Conine	1436	88	88.42	0.061	0.062	-0.00029
Luis Gonzalez	4063	256	257.40	0.063	0.063	-0.00035
Carl Crawford	4006	302	304.14	0.075	0.076	-0.00053
Josh D Willingham	3255	206	209.14	0.063	0.064	-0.00096
Nick T Swisher	2035	170	172.81	0.084	0.085	-0.00138
Craig Monroe	2909	168	172.45	0.058	0.059	-0.00153
Preston Wilson	2639	156	160.40	0.059	0.061	-0.00167
Matt T Holliday	4234	277	285.50	0.065	0.067	-0.00201
Adam Dunn	4132	279	287.54	0.068	0.070	-0.00207
Scott Podsednik	3417	245	255.60	0.072	0.075	-0.00310
Pat Burrell	2990	205	214.40	0.069	0.072	-0.00314
Raul Ibanez	4289	302	315.64	0.070	0.074	-0.00318
Carlos Lee	3883	227	243.70	0.058	0.063	-0.00430
Chris E Duncan	1015	66	71.63	0.065	0.071	-0.00554
Bobby Kielty	1030	80	88.63	0.078	0.086	-0.00838
Manny Ramirez	3151	175	201.96	0.056	0.064	-0.00856

As you can see, Melky Cabrera did a lot for the Yankees defense in 2006. I'd hope New York would try to find a spot for him defensively next season. I've heard talk of Torre wanting to play Melky everyday, and using the DH spot to rest the other three. That strikes me as a smart move.

Soriano did just fine in left. He wasn't outstanding, but he wasn't a joke, either. He actually picked up about 8 more outs than expected. He was probably better in left than he would have been at second. However, Matt Murton is better. There's some talk of playing Sorian in center.

One surprise to me is Barry Bonds. With his reconstructed knees, I expected Bonds to be at the bottom of the rankings. But he about as average as you'd like. The model predicted he'd turn 187 balls into outs, and he got to 188. This actually confirms what I saw last season. He moved surprising well in left field.

Much better than Manny Ramirez. I could see where the Red Sox might be better off defensively playing Ortiz at first, letting Manny DH and finding someone else to play left (move Crisp there, and sign Drew to play center?).

Posted by David Pinto at 04:20 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

as i understand it, the reason ortiz doen't play more 1st is that his knees can't handle it, rather than poor defense. that said, you'd think he could play more games there than he does, which would maybe make it easier to work all three DHs(ortiz, ramirez, & pena) into the lineup.

p.s. david, how well do you think this model accounts for the monster?

Posted by: amos at November 19, 2006 05:03 PM

It should accout for it well, since the park is built into set of parameters.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 19, 2006 05:06 PM

Matt Diaz at the top is a surprise - I thought Kanses City was willing to part ways with him because his defense was supposed to be atrocious.

Posted by: Will at November 19, 2006 05:36 PM

what position do you have endy chavez at? did he not get enough outs to be considered? the same for milledge?

im suprised cliff floyd was in the top 15 given he was practically crippled this year.

Posted by: tony at November 19, 2006 06:21 PM

You need 1000 balls in play while playing the position.

Posted by: David Pinto at November 19, 2006 06:40 PM

We only WISH Bay did so good in LF. Thanks for the chuckles.

Posted by: Bayman at November 20, 2006 05:50 PM

Seeing as the Monster comes into play more often due to its height, short distance, etc., wouldn't that impact Ramirez's numbers more? Obviously there are more balls in play off the wall compared to other parks.

Hate to defend Ramirez as with or without the wall he is not a good defender. But watching him play regularly I don't see him that much worse than some of the other lesser defenders. Talk about faint praise!!

Posted by: Mike at December 11, 2006 05:07 PM