Baseball Musings: NL MVP Today

November 20, 2006

NL MVP Today

The National League MVP announcement comes later today, and I expect Albert Pujols to take home the award. My vote originally would have gone to Carlos Beltran, however, based on the fact that he plays a much tougher defensive position. However, I looked at the PMR data today on the two players, and Albert fielded incredibly well at first this season, so well in fact that I believe it negates the defensive spectrum distance. I'll have more on this when I reach home later today. The two were almost even in win shares, with Pujols having more total win shares but Beltran doing better in win shares above bench.

For all the fans of Ryan Howard, there's two very interesting things at work here. The first is that Ryan played in a high run environment, which diminishes the value of his offense. Making up for that somewhat is the fact that Ryan played very well on the road. However, Pujols and Beltran both played in low run environments. That's why they are so far ahead in win shares. Their runs are valued more highly than Howard's.

However, if you look at the three batting on the road, Ryan emerges as the best hitter of the three. Beltran is close and a good centerfielder to boot. In other words, there are extremely good arguments for all three of these players. It will be interesting to see just how close the votes finishes.

Posted by David Pinto at 11:53 AM | Awards | TrackBack (0)

Comments

ryan howard was the best player in the national league this year. he was also the most valuable to his team that won more games than the cardinals *it's a regular season award.

Posted by: Tim at November 20, 2006 12:21 PM

Don't forget the Howard is a butcher in the field at the least important defensive position.

Posted by: sabernar at November 20, 2006 12:51 PM

It always comes down to how you measure value. Or whether it's the best player who wins or the player whom meant the most to the team. Always gray.

Remove Howard from the Phillies and the giant sucking sound you hear is the vacuum left in the lineup. It was clear the last two weeks of the season when Howard received 4 hittable pitches in 12 games. And his 77 walks in the second half.

Pujols and Beltran had more support around them. They may have been better, but were they more valuable?

Posted by: Joe in Philly at November 20, 2006 12:54 PM

ryan howard is not a butcher in the field. he's no gold glove winner (although better defensively than bobby abreu) but by no means a butcher.

Posted by: Tim at November 20, 2006 12:59 PM

Giving Howard the MVP is about as logical as giving Soriano $135M... wait a minute.

Posted by: Jurgen at November 20, 2006 02:13 PM

How exactly did Pujols have more support around him than Howard?

Other notable Philly batters' OPS

Chase Utley - .906
Pat Burrell .890
Bobby Abreu - .861 (and .427 OBP)
David Delluci - .899
Jimmy Rollins - .811

By contrast, the Cardinals had
Rolen - .887
Edmonds .822
Duncan for half the season (against righties) .952
Spezio off the bench had an OPS of .862

The Cardinals have 3 starting spots under .700 OPS (SS, 2B, C)

Posted by: JeremyR at November 20, 2006 04:33 PM

re: Howard's road home runs

it's worth nothing that of Howard's 58 home runs, 29 were hit on the road, which belies any notion that he derived some type of special advantage from Citizens Bank Park as to his home run productivitiy.

i watched a lot of phils baseball last year, especially howard batting, and to be perfectly honest, when he hit a home run, it was usually out by a mile.

his homers didn't start getting close until the very end of the year, when he had two in september that were just over the fence (he lost one in Houston, and one in NYC on technical issues, which replays showed were homers).

so actually he had 31 on the road and 60 for the year.

--art kyriazis, philly

Posted by: art kyriazis at November 21, 2006 10:01 AM