December 05, 2006
Probabilistic Model of Range, Firstbase, 2006
Here's the table for the first basemen.
Probabilistic Model of Range, First Basemen. Model is Based on 2006 Data Only. Minimum 1000 Balls in Play. Uses Distance for Fly Balls. | Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Out Difference | Out Ratio |
|
|---|
| Lance Niekro | 1313 | 98 | 82.96 | 15.04 | 118.13 |
| Albert Pujols | 3864 | 306 | 265.59 | 40.41 | 115.21 |
| Kendry Morales | 1338 | 124 | 109.59 | 14.41 | 113.15 |
| Derrek Lee | 1104 | 85 | 76.11 | 8.89 | 111.69 |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | 2350 | 159 | 145.03 | 13.97 | 109.63 |
| John Mabry | 1031 | 94 | 87.37 | 6.63 | 107.59 |
| Dan R Johnson | 2199 | 163 | 151.59 | 11.41 | 107.52 |
| Ben Broussard | 2097 | 148 | 137.99 | 10.01 | 107.25 |
| Mark Teixeira | 4436 | 310 | 293.87 | 16.13 | 105.49 |
| Ryan N Shealy | 1473 | 81 | 77.23 | 3.77 | 104.88 |
| Mark Sweeney | 1227 | 99 | 94.63 | 4.37 | 104.62 |
| Jeff Conine | 1400 | 91 | 87.01 | 3.99 | 104.58 |
| Shea Hillenbrand | 1858 | 141 | 135.02 | 5.98 | 104.43 |
| Lyle Overbay | 3738 | 307 | 294.40 | 12.60 | 104.28 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 4031 | 306 | 294.88 | 11.12 | 103.77 |
| Nick Johnson | 4014 | 319 | 307.69 | 11.31 | 103.68 |
| Andy A Phillips | 1635 | 109 | 105.25 | 3.75 | 103.57 |
| Kevin E Youkilis | 3123 | 233 | 225.01 | 7.99 | 103.55 |
| Nomar Garciaparra | 3199 | 194 | 188.70 | 5.30 | 102.81 |
| Howie Kendrick | 1017 | 73 | 71.18 | 1.82 | 102.55 |
| Rich Aurilia | 1024 | 70 | 68.35 | 1.65 | 102.41 |
| Chris B Shelton | 2737 | 179 | 175.49 | 3.51 | 102.00 |
| Lance Berkman | 2722 | 198 | 194.72 | 3.28 | 101.68 |
| Scott Hatteberg | 3415 | 220 | 216.73 | 3.27 | 101.51 |
| Prince G Fielder | 3989 | 269 | 265.60 | 3.40 | 101.28 |
| Kevin Millar | 2478 | 158 | 156.17 | 1.83 | 101.17 |
| Mike Lamb | 1488 | 98 | 97.62 | 0.38 | 100.39 |
| Travis Lee | 2794 | 218 | 217.25 | 0.75 | 100.35 |
| Paul Konerko | 3679 | 215 | 214.36 | 0.64 | 100.30 |
| Justin Morneau | 4046 | 266 | 268.21 | -2.21 | 99.18 |
| Richie Sexson | 4023 | 291 | 294.42 | -3.42 | 98.84 |
| Adam LaRoche | 3633 | 262 | 265.65 | -3.65 | 98.62 |
| Nick T Swisher | 2214 | 153 | 155.66 | -2.66 | 98.29 |
| Todd Helton | 4025 | 270 | 279.64 | -9.64 | 96.55 |
| Ty Wigginton | 1008 | 66 | 68.89 | -2.89 | 95.81 |
| Ryan F Garko | 1291 | 76 | 79.74 | -3.74 | 95.30 |
| Carlos Delgado | 3696 | 253 | 266.75 | -13.75 | 94.85 |
| Robb Quinlan | 1151 | 67 | 70.79 | -3.79 | 94.64 |
| Wes Helms | 1305 | 79 | 84.03 | -5.03 | 94.02 |
| Craig A Wilson | 1819 | 93 | 99.06 | -6.06 | 93.88 |
| Mike Jacobs | 2949 | 191 | 208.47 | -17.47 | 91.62 |
| Ryan J Howard | 4301 | 275 | 301.23 | -26.23 | 91.29 |
| Conor S Jackson | 3295 | 231 | 256.35 | -25.35 | 90.11 |
| Sean Casey | 2806 | 168 | 189.24 | -21.24 | 88.77 |
| Jason Giambi | 1467 | 71 | 87.61 | -16.61 | 81.05 |
So, Pujols is a +40 and Howard is a -26. Wait, defense doesn't count? Baserunning? No, just Sportscenter clips? Oh ok, nevermind.
That's pretty telling. Unrelated, I actually thought Helton was supposed to be a better 1B than this chart shows. Maybe age caught up to his glove this year too.
Seattle would be a whole lot better if they let broussard play 1st and have Sexson DH.
