I would hope that the Sox deploy Drew in the #2 or even the leadoff spot. His skill set is much more suited for those positions, though I'm doubtful that's how it will be done.

Also, Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus posted a PECOTA forecast for Drew on the site today:
.286/.395/.472, with 14 HRs in 475 PAs.
I'm certain that the Sox hope for more than that at that price.

Drew's skillset does make him a better #2, because of the high OBP. But Youkilis' obp isn't going to be much lower, and Drew's got better power. Add the fact that batting Drew 5th lets you leave Ortiz 3rd without having 2 lefties in a row, and I'm pretty sure a Lugo-Youk-Ortiz-Manny-Drew lineup is the way they're going to go.

Drew has had a slugging percentage at or above .500 every year since '03, so I don't see why, unless he has a down year, he would post one this season. Its not like Fenway is a much worse hitters park than Dodger Stadium. In fact, I'm pretty sure its better. The one possibility is if Drew is left handed, but I don't think he is, so it shouldn't matter (unless I'm wrong).

I have Drew batting second in my optimal Sox batting order too, Phil, behind Youk. Four guys leading off the lineup with .400 obp is a pretty good recipe for scoring. And the last three guys (in my ideal Sox lineup anyway) have some speed too (Lugo, Pedroia, & Crisp).

Should be interesting to see if Theo turns his attention to Matsuzaka and the bullpen now, or if he has some more tricks up his sleave to alter the lineup. So far, I like what I'm seeing a lot.

Whoops! Drew does bat left-handed. My bad. Maybe you bat him leadoff and hit Youk second to break up two lefties?

Lugo-Youk-Ortiz-Manny-Drew

Thus masterfully placing the lowest OBP of the bunch in the leadoff slot! Witness the genius of received baseball wisdom, which has the team's sixth best hitter getting the most ABs.

Youkilis-Drew-Ortiz-Ramirez-Pena-Varitek-Lowell-Lugo-second base de jour is the obvious right answer.

Except I do think the lefty-righty thing should be taken somewhat into account. Actually...I'd be pretty happy using that lineup against righties, and using the Lugo-Youk-Ortiz lineup against lefties. Seems like a good compromise.

And I don't know why you've included Pena over Crisp...he isn't starting. Maybe you think he should be...but that's a very debatable matter, especially if Crisp bounces back offensively. (And I expect him to)

The splits for Boston's sluggers aren't anywhere near bad enough to justify batting a guy with a lifetime 340 OBP leadoff just to manipulate the possibility of a platoon matchup later in the game.

Let me get this straight - The Sox are paying 9M/yr for one shortstop and 3M/yr to Atlanta for another. So that is 12M - or roughly 50 percent more than NL ROY Hanley Ramirez would have made FIVE years from now. BTW, does anyone think the timing of the Lester news was aimed in Scotty B's direction. "Listen Scott, we have our five for 06 if need be. So its either 4/32 (5/42) or you client goes back to Japan for two years and you never rep a Japaneese client again. Sleep tight".

Let me get this straight - The Sox are paying 9M/yr for one shortstop and 3M/yr to Atlanta for another. So that is 12M - or roughly 50 percent more than NL ROY Hanley Ramirez would have made FIVE years from now. BTW, does anyone think the timing of the Lester news was aimed in Scotty B's direction. "Listen Scott, we have our five for 06 if need be. So its either 4/32 (5/42) or you client goes back to Japan for two years and you never rep a Japaneese client again. Sleep tight".

Lugo is getting 4 years/36M, which by my math breaks down to 8M a year, not 9M.

I still don't think Theo would have made the trade for Beckett had he been the GM at the time. I think this was a deal orchestrated by Larry L and the older gentleman who's name I forget now working for the Dodgers.

Theres no way the Sox get away with a 4yr 8M per deal for Matsuzaka. Just won't happen. Boras isn't going to let the majority of the money go to Seibu while he locks his client up for his big money years at 1/2 the market rate. He'd rather sit back and wait a year and then sign a deal on the free agent market. How much would Matsuzaka get on the free agent market? Lets be conservative and say 4 years 12m per. Add what he's going to make with Seibu next season and Matsuzaka comes out ahead, even with this comparatively small contract. The Sox have to make it worth his while to forgo free agency next season, which is what I guarantee you Boras is saying to Theo.

Lugo is getting 4 years/36M, which by my math breaks down to 8M a year, not 9M.

I still don't think Theo would have made the trade for Beckett had he been the GM at the time. I think this was a deal orchestrated by Larry L and the older gentleman who's name I forget now working for the Dodgers.

Theres no way the Sox get away with a 4yr 8M per deal for Matsuzaka. Just won't happen. Boras isn't going to let the majority of the money go to Seibu while he locks his client up for his big money years at 1/2 the market rate. He'd rather sit back and wait a year and then sign a deal on the free agent market. How much would Matsuzaka get on the free agent market? Lets be conservative and say 4 years 12m per. Add what he's going to make with Seibu next season and Matsuzaka comes out ahead, even with this comparatively small contract. The Sox have to make it worth his while to forgo free agency next season, which is what I guarantee you Boras is saying to Theo.

Sorry for the double post.

"Lugo is getting 4 years/36M, which by my math breaks down to 8M a year, not 9M."

Might wanna rethink your math, pal...8x4 = 32.

"The splits for Boston's sluggers aren't anywhere near bad enough to justify batting a guy with a lifetime 340 OBP leadoff just to manipulate the possibility of a platoon matchup later in the game."

Lugo's OBP as a leadoff man since 2005 is above .360; if he can do that in Boston, he's fine leading off. And Drew's not too good gainst lefties...Ortiz and Manny can hit anyone, and Drew's no Nixon...but you still don't want him facing a lefty any more then he has to. I guess if you really wanted to you could just go Youk-Drew-Manny-Ortiz...but I don't like taking the bat out of Papi's hands any more then I have to.

Fact is, Drew's the only guy on the team with the combination of power, avg, and obp to make a good 5-hitter.

Sox'll prob go Youk, Lugo, Papi, Manny, Drew, Tek, Lowell, Crisp, Pedroia.

However, optimal might be same as above, but switch Lowell and Tek.

Also, I forgot to say. Signing a guy for four years at those numbers who's only had one good year does not seem like the smartest of moves for my beloved Red Sox.

Red Sox fans better hope they forecast better than "mattymatty" here. So far he's thought Drew bats right-handed and that 36/4=8.

As a Yankee fan, I'm pretty excited about these signings. Keep spending money on players that don't deserve it!

Two curious stats about JD Drew:

-He's had far better home stats playing in Dodgers Stadium than on the road, despite playing most of his games in a pitcher's park. His home/road splits:

'06: .299/.424/.548 at home, .269/.361/.451 away.
'05: .331/.465/.625 at home, .233/.345/.397 away.

-Drew is one of the best players in history at avoiding the double play. In 960 games, Drew has grounded into only 41 DP's. The only guys who compare to his ratio are speedsters like Vince Coleman and Tim Raines. I have no idea what this means, but I think it makes sense to bat him fifth.

so when does jd go on the dl around late may or early june.

And who says Drew even gets past the physical? They do the reflex test, and JD's knee might shatter.

Great number 5 hitter behind the big guns. Will drive them home plenty and play good defense.

"Red Sox fans better hope they forecast better than "mattymatty" here. So far he's thought Drew bats right-handed and that 36/4=8."

Oh, that's rich.

I'm thinking either Carbo or Petricelli will leadoff. They're still playing, right?