January 01, 2007
Judgement About Koufax
6-4-2 Provides evidence of a Jackie Robinson Walter Alston feud over Sandy Koufax. However, I'd like to comment on this statement:
I should also close by mentioning that it was a good bit of an overstatement to call Koufax's early career "ineffective"; "erratic" would be more apt.
In the first edition of The POLITICS OF GLORY, HOW BASEBALL HALL OF FAME REALLY WORKS (reissued as Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame), Bill James points out that Koufax was actually a very consistent pitcher throughout his career. What changed was that in 1962 he moved into a ballpark that enhanced his stats. Koufax was not erratic. He pitched in a great hitter's park his first few years in Los Angeles.
Bill James was wrong, then. Maybe the park did have an impact - for example, his HR/9 seems to drop from around 1.2 to .6 before versus during and after 1962.
However, he also learned how to stop walking people in between 1961 and 1962. His K/BB was on average around 2.1 from 1957 to 1961. Then, from 1962 to 1966, it jumped to around 4.6. I can't imagine a park creating a decrease in walks so dramatically like that.
Mike,
If his home runs drop in half due to the park, don't you think that would mean he'd be more willing to put the ball over the plate? If fly balls are being caught rather than going out of the park, that's a good reason to challenge hitters more.
Also in 1963 the strike zone was enlarged to be from the top of the shoulders to the bottom of the knees.
Ah - good points from both of you. Though, there was evidence in 1961 that he was getting better at this (2.8 K/BB if I remember, versus only having one season above 2.0 before that). Pretty fascinating notion, then, that Koufax essentially didn't get better during his dominating stretch...
Though ERA+ should take into account the park he was in as well as the time period (i.e. new strike zone in 1963 for all pitchers, not just him), and his ERA+ was markedly better in 62-66 (143, 161, 187, 160, 190) than it was from 57-61 (107, 92, 104, 102, 124).
If Chavez Ravine helped Koufax starting in 1962, how come Koufax won 18 games in 1961 with Coliseum as home park vs his 14 wins in 1962.
What never seems mentioned is that Koufax was a bonus baby and had to stay with Brooklyn early on and that he had little opportunities to learn his craft in the minors. He went to Univ of Cincinnatti as a basketball player.
I seem to recall Bill James talking about this in his 1988 Abstract -- well before The Politics of Glory
In Koufax' autobiography, he puts the turnaround in 1961 -- when he "learned how to pitch." The ERA+ cited by Mike support that argument. Koufax goes from being an average pitcher to a very good one. The move to Dodger Stadium just emphasized that improvement, and made it more apparent.
I came to this discussion looking for information about Alston-Koufax feud and was amazed that anyone could doubt Sandy Koufax was the most dominating pitcher of any major league era.
To clear up one question, Koufax won 14 games in 1962 because he missed about half of the season with a blister on a finger of throwing hand. Same problem in 1964 when he won 19.
Remove those injuries and suddenly Koufax has five 20 plus win seasons.
Compare Bob Gibson's record during the same period to understand Koufax's total dominance from 1962-66.