There's no way all the Yankees will decline like that. Plus, Matsui is going to get more than 361 AB. And Wang is going to win more than 11 games. I don't see this Yankees team as being worse than last season's version. And I don't see the Red Sox as improving by 11 games. Everyone expects Matsuzaka to be a #1 or #2 pitcher - he's not going to do that well in his first season. Maybe it's me, but PECOTA numbers this offseason just seem poor. Everything from Beckett's 3.68 ERA to Randy Johnson's huge season that it's predicting. I have little trust in PECOTA numbers.

I guess the Jays don't exist. We did finish second in the division last season.

Dan, ESPN has decided that there are only two teams in the AL East: Yanks and Sawx. (For variety, ESPN does admit that a few other teams in other divisions do exist).

Did either of you happen to notice that the website that did those projections is called "Yanksfan vs Soxfan?" Christ...

thank you the other josh. i was about to write that myself.

sabernar- PECOTA has daisuke at 4.01 and Beckett at 4.47. i think you were looking at the BIS numbers.

The day they said the Sox would hit 105 wins, I ignored everything they say about 2007 in the future tense. Of course, this website has some good commentary, but they also want people to believe that Beckett in 2006 was not as bad as we think he was.