Baseball Musings: Pitcher's Luck

March 13, 2007

Pitcher's Luck

Speaking to a reporter this afternoon about the Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR), I realized I never published the chart of how pitchers were helped or hurt by their defense in 2006. So without further ado:

Probabilistic Model of Range, Fielders Behind Pitchers, 2006. Smoothed Visit Model with Distance for Fly Balls
Pitcher	Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	DER	Predicted DER	Difference
Kris Benson	Bal	595	425	402.81	0.714	0.677	0.03730
Chris Young	SD	468	357	339.63	0.763	0.726	0.03712
Ervin R Santana	LAA	603	435	412.64	0.721	0.684	0.03708
Roy Halladay	Tor	686	491	466.71	0.716	0.680	0.03540
Kevin Millwood	Tex	670	458	434.82	0.684	0.649	0.03460
Joel Pineiro	Sea	569	378	361.55	0.664	0.635	0.02891
Kenny Rogers	Det	656	472	454.00	0.720	0.692	0.02743
Chris Carpenter	StL	638	455	437.61	0.713	0.686	0.02726
David T Bush	Mil	621	440	423.21	0.709	0.681	0.02704
Jeff Suppan	StL	634	435	420.48	0.686	0.663	0.02290
Carlos Zambrano	ChC	563	409	396.36	0.726	0.704	0.02244
Johan Santana	Min	603	433	419.91	0.718	0.696	0.02171
Tim Wakefield	Bos	440	320	310.49	0.727	0.706	0.02162
Chris Capuano	Mil	677	461	446.73	0.681	0.660	0.02108
Woody Williams	SD	489	350	339.78	0.716	0.695	0.02089
Kirk Saarloos	Oak	421	287	278.99	0.682	0.663	0.01902
Noah Lowry	SF	521	370	360.15	0.710	0.691	0.01890
Chien-Ming Wang	NYY	758	526	511.78	0.694	0.675	0.01875
John Smoltz	Atl	662	457	444.95	0.690	0.672	0.01820
Bronson Arroyo	Cin	707	509	496.17	0.720	0.702	0.01815
Mike Mussina	NYY	570	395	384.84	0.693	0.675	0.01783
Steve Trachsel	NYM	552	389	379.44	0.705	0.687	0.01733
Greg Maddux	ChC	454	311	303.18	0.685	0.668	0.01722
Matt Morris	SF	687	481	469.65	0.700	0.684	0.01652
Brandon Webb	Ari	701	483	472.33	0.689	0.674	0.01522
Nate Robertson	Det	640	448	438.33	0.700	0.685	0.01512
Jose Contreras	CWS	614	433	424.27	0.705	0.691	0.01421
Carlos Silva	Min	664	446	436.62	0.672	0.658	0.01413
Ricky Nolasco	Fla	443	298	291.93	0.673	0.659	0.01371
Josh Johnson	Fla	440	311	305.16	0.707	0.694	0.01328
Josh Beckett	Bos	590	429	421.42	0.727	0.714	0.01284
Roy Oswalt	Hou	668	459	450.87	0.687	0.675	0.01217
Randy Johnson	NYY	590	416	409.33	0.705	0.694	0.01131
Erik Bedard	Bal	583	394	387.98	0.676	0.665	0.01033
Jon Garland	CWS	715	486	479.00	0.680	0.670	0.00979
Josh Fogg	Col	581	394	388.42	0.678	0.669	0.00960
Freddy Garcia	CWS	695	494	487.36	0.711	0.701	0.00955
Gil Meche	Sea	539	372	366.94	0.690	0.681	0.00939
Jaret Wright	NYY	467	313	308.80	0.670	0.661	0.00899
Felix A Hernandez	Sea	551	371	366.17	0.673	0.665	0.00877
Eric Milton	Cin	495	354	349.80	0.715	0.707	0.00848
Justin B Verlander	Det	564	394	389.49	0.699	0.691	0.00800
Mark Buehrle	CWS	688	471	465.66	0.685	0.677	0.00776
Jason Jennings	Col	655	456	451.33	0.696	0.689	0.00713
Dan Haren	Oak	668	466	461.60	0.698	0.691	0.00658
Jamie Moyer	Sea	531	370	366.51	0.697	0.690	0.00656
Jason Schmidt	SF	607	432	428.09	0.712	0.705	0.00643
Jarrod Washburn	Sea	619	437	433.23	0.706	0.700	0.00609
Jeff W Francis	Col	626	445	441.42	0.711	0.705	0.00572
Aaron Cook	Col	744	507	503.15	0.681	0.676	0.00517
Clay A Hensley	SD	571	402	399.10	0.704	0.699	0.00509
Casey Fossum	TB	413	284	281.93	0.688	0.683	0.00502
Tim Hudson	Atl	705	482	479.36	0.684	0.680	0.00375
Tom Glavine	NYM	621	431	429.08	0.694	0.691	0.00310
Matt Cain	SF	528	383	381.46	0.725	0.722	0.00291
Derek Lowe	LAD	716	492	490.39	0.687	0.685	0.00225
Curt Schilling	Bos	592	399	397.74	0.674	0.672	0.00212
Vicente Padilla	Tex	608	415	414.25	0.683	0.681	0.00123
John Lackey	LAA	635	433	432.39	0.682	0.681	0.00096
Rodrigo Lopez	Bal	616	407	407.54	0.661	0.662	-0.00087
Brad Radke	Min	549	371	371.63	0.676	0.677	-0.00114
John V Koronka	Tex	424	294	294.76	0.693	0.695	-0.00178
Brad Penny	LAD	583	386	387.05	0.662	0.664	-0.00180
Ted Lilly	Tor	524	362	363.16	0.691	0.693	-0.00221
Doug Davis	Mil	619	421	422.39	0.680	0.682	-0.00225
Jason Marquis	StL	648	456	457.72	0.704	0.706	-0.00266
Jake Westbrook	Cle	720	479	480.93	0.665	0.668	-0.00268
Jamey Wright	SF	507	354	355.81	0.698	0.702	-0.00357
Scott M Olsen	Fla	490	348	349.80	0.710	0.714	-0.00367
Andy Pettitte	Hou	652	430	433.13	0.660	0.664	-0.00480
Mark Redman	KC	573	385	387.79	0.672	0.677	-0.00488
Miguel Batista	Ari	692	467	470.53	0.675	0.680	-0.00510
Brian Moehler	Fla	436	283	285.38	0.649	0.655	-0.00545
Jon Lieber	Phi	557	378	381.60	0.679	0.685	-0.00647
Paul G Maholm	Pit	559	371	375.05	0.664	0.671	-0.00724
Paul Byrd	Cle	647	426	430.91	0.658	0.666	-0.00760
Tony Armas Jr.	Was	500	343	346.80	0.686	0.694	-0.00760
Esteban Loaiza	Oak	520	351	355.50	0.675	0.684	-0.00866
Byung-Hyun Kim	Col	473	306	310.22	0.647	0.656	-0.00893
Jake Peavy	SD	542	372	377.82	0.686	0.697	-0.01074
Wandy E Rodriguez	Hou	427	281	285.85	0.658	0.669	-0.01135
Jeremy Bonderman	Det	615	413	420.29	0.672	0.683	-0.01186
Cliff Lee	Cle	658	455	463.03	0.691	0.704	-0.01220
Chan Ho Park	SD	436	302	307.47	0.693	0.705	-0.01254
C.C. Sabathia	Cle	562	383	390.88	0.681	0.696	-0.01402
Barry Zito	Oak	655	464	473.26	0.708	0.723	-0.01414
Javier Vazquez	CWS	594	399	407.80	0.672	0.687	-0.01481
Claudio Vargas	Ari	538	365	373.65	0.678	0.695	-0.01607
Zach Duke	Pit	726	480	491.99	0.661	0.678	-0.01651
Ian D Snell	Pit	539	362	371.02	0.672	0.688	-0.01673
Sean C Marshall	ChC	400	280	287.55	0.700	0.719	-0.01888
Kelvim Escobar	LAA	570	383	394.00	0.672	0.691	-0.01930
Brett Myers	Phi	549	378	388.95	0.689	0.708	-0.01994
Ramon Ortiz	Was	654	442	457.19	0.676	0.699	-0.02323
Dontrelle Willis	Fla	690	466	482.36	0.675	0.699	-0.02372
Joe M Blanton	Oak	668	439	456.28	0.657	0.683	-0.02586
Ryan Madson	Phi	441	278	291.21	0.630	0.660	-0.02994
Livan Hernandez	Was	496	332	346.94	0.669	0.699	-0.03012
Aaron Harang	Cin	684	454	476.58	0.664	0.697	-0.03301

Looking at the Hardball Times, Benson has a much better ERA than FIP, as does Chris Young. Hernandez is negative for Washington, as is Harang for Cincinnati. So it looks like the arrows are pointing in the right direction.

In discussing this, another question arose. Which pitchers give their fielders the easiest balls to field? We can answer that by sorting on Predicted DER. At the top of the list is Young, Zito, Cain, Sean Marshall and Scott Olsen. At the bottom, the worst was Joel Pineiro, followed by Millwood, Moehler, B. Kim and Carlos Silva. Now you need to be careful with those number, since home field has a say in this (more balls turn into outs in PETCO). I'm going to try to work on an adjustment for that. However, not that Young also led this category in 2005 in a completely different home park and league.

Posted by David Pinto at 08:17 PM | Probabilistic Model of Range | TrackBack (0)

Comments

Great stuff, David. Thanks for posting it.

Posted by: Phil at March 13, 2007 11:30 PM