Earlier today I mentioned the Astros were my pick to win the NL Central. Since that elicited a number of responses, I thought it was time to start previewing the divisions in detail. So let's start with the NL Central.

The NL Central produced both an exciting regular season finish and the World Champion Cardinals in 2006. The Cardinals defense of their title starts with their superstar, Albert Pujols. The first baseman is the best hitter of his generation, still young enough that he's just reaching his peak. An injury kept him from challenging Bonds single season home run record in 2006, so we'll see if he can get off to a similar hot start this year.

The days of this being a dominating offense are over, however. While Pujols is at his peak, partners in offense Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds are fading. Age and injury brought the pair back down to earth. It used to be that the Cardinals could depend on these three generating a high number of runs, so the Cardinals could afford to fill in around them with okay players. That's not good enough anymore. The Cardinals need some skilled players around Albert, and yet they continue to sign older veterans to shore up the team. The way they go about building the team around Pujols is actually similar to what the Giants do with Bonds. That leaves St. Louis' offense susceptible to injury. Last year I thought the team would come back to the pack. They're going to need a great season by Pujols to keep them one step ahead of the tightening NL Central.

Even the pitching staff is questionable right now. Carpenter remains a true ace, but behind him are two young, unproven pitchers in Wainwright and Reyes. Both have potential, but both need to prove they're major league starters. The Cardinals, however, never fail to experiment. This season, Bradon Looper becomes a starter after exclusively relieving during his long major league career. I could find no record of a reliever making a successful move to the starting rotation this late in his career. If his spring numbers are any indication, Looper won't strike out many batters, leading to a ton of hits. That's a very bad combination for any pitcher. This won't be an easy season for St. Louis fans. The team should compete, but the odds of winning the division are not in their favor.

The team with the best chance of taking the division in my opinion is the Houston Astros. They feature the best starting pitcher in the division in Roy Oswalt, and the second best offensive player in Lance Berkman. And like the Cardinals of prior years, the heart of the Houston order is dominant. Berkman is healthy, surgeons fixed Morgan Ensberg's shoulder and Carlos Lee consistently outputs 25 win shares a season. I suspect these three will do for the Astros what Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds used to produce for the Cardinals. Although Astros fans may rightly be concerned about the long term aspects of Lee's contract, I suspect he'll be very good this season.

There are problems with the offense, however, and a big one is long-time Astro Craig Biggio. The future Hall of Famer continues to play as he attempts to reach 3000 hits. But his offense is on the decline, and a team that really wanted to win might replace him with a better player at second base. But there's something to be said for loyalty, and the Houston fans get to see Biggio go for his milestone hit and try one more time for a World Championship. However, the rest of the offense is okay, and if you have three great hitters, a bunch of good ones should be enough to generate runs.

Backing up Oswalt in the rotation is Jason Jennings, who pitched well in Colorado and should do fine in a better environment in Houston. But the back of the rotation, especially the 4-5 starters are weak. I suspect this will eventually drive Houston to re-sign Roger Clemens for another stretch drive.

Still, the offense should overcome the pitching problems, and while Houston isn't going to run away with the division, they have the best combination of players in the NL Central.

The Cincinnati Reds held the NL Central in the palm of their hands at various times in 2006. All they needed was a winning streak at the top. Instead, taking first place usually led to a slump. A swoon by their star hitter, Adam Dunn, and a poor trade for relief help doomed them to finish back in a fairly easy division. At this point, the Reds can't do much about the trade, but Adam Dunn took his slump seriously. The slugger spent the winter training to be more like Ichiro. At first, that sounds like a bad thing, but he's not working to go from a slugger to a singles hitter. Dunn, strikeout artist extraordinaire wants to make more contact. That's a great idea. With his strength and batting eye, more balls in play means more hits (and homers) for Dunn, and more runs for the Reds.

Apart from Dunn, however, there's not much else offensively to cheer about on the Reds in 2007. But they clearly own the best starting rotation in the division. It's a bit of a topsey-turvey world in Cincinnati this season, as the pitching is strong and the offense is weak. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo represent the best 1-2 punch in the division. And waiting in the wings is top prospect Homer Bailey. If Milton or Lohse fail, look for Bailey to move up to the majors and improve the staff.

With good pitching and a weak offense, expect a number of close games and David Weathers to figure prominently in the Reds success.

The Milwaukee Brewers were the trendy pick to break the .500 barrier in 2006. They failed in that endeavor, but they're a young team still on the rise. In a poll on the finish of the NL Central, almost every blogger questioned put the Brewers first or second, making them the "wisdom of crowds" favorite to win the division. My number don't show the Brewers that strong, but the improvement arrows point up. Rickey Weeks and Prince Fielder are young and play 2007 with a year of MLB experience under their belt. Moving Hall to center puts a better arrangement of talent on the field. The addition of Estrada at catcher is a good offensive upgrade at the position. The Brewers should score more runs this season.

But the biggest boost should come from a healthy Ben Sheets in the rotation. Sheets returning to his 2004 form gives the Brewers a solid 1-4 in the rotation. Of course, there's the possibility of too much optimism here. Weeks and Fielder posted good but not great OBAs in 2006. Hall may not adjust well in center. And Sheets, with his series of injuries may have seen his best days. The Brewers are like the Tigers of 2006; if everything breaks right, they can win the division, but I don't seem them as clear cut favorites.

The team that made the biggest off-season move was the Chicago Cubs, signing Alfonso Soriano to an $18 million a year contract and moving him to a tougher defensive position in centerfield. If Soriano can post numbers anywhere near his 2006 level, it will be a huge boost to the Cubs win total. Combine that with a healthy Derrek Lee and a locked up Aramis Ramirez, and Chicago pitchers shouldn't lack for run support.

However, some things don't change. Cesar Izturis provides no offense at shortstop, and his backup, Ronny Cedeno isn't any better. And what happens if 2006 turns out to be a fluke for Soriano? They'll need Matt Murton to continue to improve. Still my guess is that Lee and Soriano together for a full year, with more improvement from a young Murton results in more offense in Chicago.

Pitching presents a big question mark, however. Zambrano is a terrific number one starter, but there's not much behind him. Lilly is more of a third starter, but on this team he's number two. If you want to put a positive spin on Jason Marquis' 2006 ERA, you can say he was left in to save the bullpen in a few games while getting hammered. Of course, getting hammered in a few games isn't exactly what one wants from a starting pitcher. Mark Prior doesn't appear on his way to his old form, so this is a very iffy rotation. The Cubs improved their offense without improving their pitching staff. I just don't see the Cubs winning with this team, unless the division turns out to be as bad as 2006.

The Pirates bring up the rear in the division. Of course, it's simple for Pirates fans in 2007. Root for Bay and Sanchez and hope everyone else gets lucky. What's worse, however, is that the Pirates farm system has nothing to show for years of major league ineptitude. The farm system should be crawling with fine young talent, but the Pittsburgh AA and AAA affiliates are crawling with players in their mid 20s. That's not the age that produces stars. The Athletics and Twins showed how to build a team with a low payroll. The Devil Rays and Royals can point to talent in their systems. There's no excuse for the Pirates to be this bad. Things won't change until Pittsburgh hires a GM who knows how to build a team from scratch.

So I see the division finishing Astros, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Cubs and Pirates. But it's going to be really close, where any of the first five teams offers legitimate reasons to finish first. I wouldn't assign a probability of winning the division higher that 20% to any team in the NL Central. That the first five teams, throw their names a hat, pull them out at random and you'll get just as good a prediction of the order of finish. I'm looking forward to a tight pennant race in 2007.