Once again the AL East looks like it has for the last decade. Two strong teams at the top, two evenly matched teams in the middle, and a poor team at the bottom.

The Yankees once again put together an amazingly good squad. When I calculate wins for the core players, the good teams come out in the high 60s or low 70s. The bullpens and reserves make up the rest of the total. But when you calculate the core for the Yankees, they come out to 84 wins. The really scary thing about that number is that it's a floor, not a ceiling. It assumes very low contributions from Hideki Matsui and Carl Pavano. The lineup consists of eight superior players and Doug Mientkiewicz. The Yankees could easily score 900 runs with this lineup, and if they decide they need to score more, they should be able to replace Doug at first with a slugger.

The pitching staff isn't at the same level, but the Yankees picked up three prospects over the winter who might turn out to be major league ready this season. So if Pavano or Wang or Pettitte turn out to be hurt, there's something in reserve. And the nice thing, with that offense, a team ERA of 4.50 still means they'll likely win the division.

The Red Sox end up with the second best core in the majors, but still seven games behind the Yankees. They put four superior offensive players in their lineup, Ramirez, Ortiz, Drew and Youkilis. They also work in a little youth with Dustin Pedroia. The twenty-three year old posted great minor league numbers for any position, let alone a middle infielder. He and a healthy Coco Crisp should boost the offense.

The big story on the pitching side, of course, is Daisuke Matsuzaka. The $100 million pitcher has the potential to be anything from an average starter to a Cy Young candidate. When the Red Sox watched Matsuzaka they saw a breaking pitch that was undetectable. That's what made Pedro so unhittable when he pitched for Boston. If that pitch turns out to be as good as the front office thinks, Matsuzaka will wind up much closer to the Cy Young end of the scale. Combine that with Beckett keeping the ball in the park, and there's two more arrows pointing in the direction of improvement for the Red Sox.

However, they've traded 150 innings of Jonathan Papelbon for 150 innings of Julian Tavarez or some other replacement pitcher. Papelbon returned to the bullpen as the Red Sox could not find a legitimate closer to replace him. It improves chances of the Red Sox keeping a lead late, but they may not get as many chances with Tavarez starting.

The Toronto Blue Jays finished in second place in 2006, but they'll be hard pressed to repeat that level. While the Yankees and Red Sox improved their rosters, the Blue Jays put Royce Clayton in the middle of their infield. Not only does Royce not contribute offensively, he showed very little range in 2006. It's not like they're the Yankees with eight great players around him, and decent offensive shortstops are not easy to come by.

The best place to find improvement on the Jays is in two players who spent time on the DL in 2006. A.J. Burnett and Alex Rios both should contribute more to the team in 2007 just by staying healthy. And designated hitter Frank Thomas can still hurt the opposition, especially in a hitter's park like the Rogers Center. But look for older players like Glaus and Zaun to decline some.

Halladay and Burnett give the Jays a solid 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, but the 3-5 starters leave a lot to be desired. It's going to take some luck for Toronto to make the playoffs in 2007.

The Baltimore Orioles are actually very close to the Blue Jays in terms of core wins. Toronto edges them out by the difference between former Oriole B.J. Ryan and current Baltimore closer Chris Ray. But Ray pitched well last year in his new role, and he's still young enough to continue to develop as a closer.

The Orioles own two high power position players in Tejada and Hernandez, and Nick Markakis may become the third. Both the veterans play tough defensive positions as well, making their offense even more valuable. The rest of the lineup is solid but not great. The weakest link in the order is Gibbons at designated hitter. But, like the Yankees, if DH is an offensive problem, it's one that's easy to fix.

Erik Bedard lowered his walk rate in 2006, and his ERA went down with it. The Orioles hope Daniel Cabrera can do the same thing in 2007. Cabrera walked 104 batters in 148 innings last season. He's going to need to cut that in half to have much success in the majors. The rest of the rotation is retreads, the Orioles favorite kind of player. On the strength of their offense, they'll battle Toronto for third place, but it looks like another year out of the playoffs for the birds.

And bringing up the rear once again are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. This is an organization moving in the right direction. They've abandoned the practice of constantly bringing in washed up veterans to salvage the team. They're going with youth, but it will take some time to develop. But I'd much rather watch a team that's going to improve than one that is destined to decline.

The offense is coming along better than the pitching. Navarro, Zorbist, Young and Upton are going to get a chance to play. Even if two turn out to be great, the DRays will show improvement in 2007. The staff behind Scott Kazmir remains iffy. The Rays need to find some pitching talent to complement their hitters before they can really make a move in the east.

So I see the division finishing:

1. Yankees
2. Red Sox
3. Blue Jays
4. Orioles
5. Devil Rays

It's possible age catches up with the Yankees, and they come back to the pack. That would make the division race a lot more interesting.