The NL West shapes up as another division any team can win. From the Dodgers to the Diamondbacks, the West will be decided by the strength of improvement from rookies or decline from veterans. Don't be surprised to see a repeat of the jockeying for first place that happened last season.

With San Diego, the key to success is Jake Peavy. The Padres ace suffered from a bad shoulder in 2006. A healthier Peavy contends for the Cy Young award. His strikeouts were great this spring, 27 in 23 innings pitched. He did allow three homers and nine walks, the walks a little on the high side for him. But the strikeouts are a very good sign. If the Padres can get another season of improvement from Chris Young, they'll trot out a fine 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.

That's actually a theme for this division. With the possible exception of the Rockies, each teams owns an excellent pair of pitchers at the top of the rotation. Which franchise ends up with the best staff depends on how they fill out the other three spots. The Padres give two-fifths of their starts to ancient pitchers, Greg Maddux and David Wells. Given their ages, both are huge question marks, especially now that Wells was diagnosed with diabetes. David did not put up very good numbers in spring training, allowing a ton of hits.

There are some positives on offense as well. The replacement of Josh Barfield with Marcus Giles looks like it will bring about a short term improvement at the position. Marcus is declining, but right now he brings more wins to the Padres than the maturing Barfield would. Kouzmanoff put together a great spring, and should add lots of life to the Padres offense from third base. There just aren't a lot of places on this team where the Padres might get worse. Cameron and Brian Giles are at an age when decline happens, but the up arrows on offense should balance that. The Padres are at least as good as 2006, and probably better.

The Dodgers 1-2 punch comes from Jason Schmidt and Derek Lowe. And while these two are good, there's not much upside there. The Padres can expect Peavy to bounce back from injury, the Giants are counting on Cain to improve, and the Diamondbacks hope Randy Johnson's surgery returns him to form. But with Lowe and Schmidt, what you see is what you get. Backing them up is Randy Wolf, who hasn't pitched a complete season since 2003, Brad Penny who walked twice as many as he struck out this spring and Brett Tomko, who reduced his walks but raised his home runs last season.

I thought the Dodgers would put together a better mix of youth and veterans on offense. Their farm system receives praise, but they send down James Loney and bring in Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre. In addition, Garciaparra, Frucal and Kent are more likely to decline that improve. Still if the youngster who are bound to get some playing time can balance that with improvement, the Dodgers look as good as 2007, if not a bit better.

Every year I think the Giants are going to be lousy due to their age, and every year I look at the stats and am surprised that the Giants are competitive within the division. Barry Bonds, playing three quarters of a season, on two bad legs and with a bad elbow still managed to post 25 win shares, an excellent total for any player. Vizquel and Durham still put together fine seasons, and the rest of the lineup is solid. With Bonds appearing to be healthiest he's been in the last couple of seasons, and Aaron's record in his sights, I actually expect him to improve. Still, the assumption has to be that the offense overall is going to decline due to age.

The rotation actually contains some players under 30. Zito makes the ace of the staff a couple of years younger, and Cain and Lowry are pitchers on the rise. However, you need to take points back from the rotation for the return of Russ Ortiz. Russ was so bad in 2006 the Diamondbacks decided to eat his contract rather than letting him stink up the pitching staff anymore. It strikes me that based on 2006 win shares, the Giants and Padres are pretty even. However, with youth on the Padres and age on the Giants, the Padres are more likely beat my expectations while the Giants don't.

The Arizona Diamondbacks front office knows how to build a ball club. I thought my analysis would put them near the top of the division, but that's not true. The problem is that Arizona puts a number of young but unproven players on the field. Jackson, Drew, Young, Quentin and Owings promise to be very good, but it's tough to predict all of them will have outstanding seasons in 2007. With Randy Johnson looking healthy, there's a big reason to believe I'm underestimating the Diamondbacks success this year. But my guess is that they're still a year away from the playoffs.

I also like the direction the Rockies are heading. They bring into the mix Chris Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki, two players who posted great numbers in the minor leagues. Catcher and shortstop were two weak spots for Colorado in 2007, and these two players likely make the Rockies solid at seven of the eight non-pitching spots.

The pitching staff needs to solidify the gains made in 2006. If the Rockies offense does improve, the staff doesn't need to be great to win. A 4.50 ERA can take this team a long way.

I can imagine scenarios where any team in this division gets the right breaks and finishes first. There's not that much difference top to bottom. But I need to name an order, so here it goes:

1. Dodgers
2. Padres
3. Rockies
4. Giants
5. Diamondbacks

You can pull names out of a hat and do just as well. Will Randy Johnson turn in a superb season along with some great rookies and push Arizona to the top? Was the Rockies pitching staff for real last season? Is Bonds going to amaze us again at his advanced age? Can Peavy and Young be the best top of the rotation in the division? Can the Dodgers veterans put up one more great year?

In four of the six divisions we'll have solid four team races. It's looking like a great year for baseball fans, right down to the wire.